Frank Camarillo — OGILVIE

Frank Camarillo P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%20.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	14	14	56	241	43	17	7	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	14	14	56	241	43	17	7	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	7	7	31	132	28	11	4	100%	4.4	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.03	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	7	7	25	109	15	6	3	100%	3.6	13.8%	5.5%	8.3%	2.8%	6.04	4.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	57	242	52	20	7	100%	5.2	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.36	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	248	55	21	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	251	57	21	7	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.22	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	251	57	21	7	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.22	4.20	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	247	56	20	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.23	4.24	+0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	28	118	25	10	4	100%	5.6	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.36	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	41	173	38	14	5	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	46	17	6	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.22	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	52	220	50	18	6	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.22	4.20	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	53	224	51	19	7	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.23	4.24	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	222	938	211	77	28	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.27	3.86	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	69	25	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.27	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		14	14	56	241	32	20	9	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	856	115	71	32	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frank Camarillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.4%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.28	22.1%	13.8%	175	-0.24	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	87
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	85
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	83
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	82
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	81
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	22.2%	8.3%	1.15	4.32
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47