Frank Camarillo
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%22.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 11 | 11 | 51 | 209 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.91 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 36 | 150 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 86 | 359 | 72 | 29 | 12 | — | — | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 37 | 155 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 38 | 159 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 38 | 161 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 38 | 161 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 38 | 159 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 36 | 154 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 176 | 745 | 182 | 63 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 206 | 71 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 51 | 209 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.91 | 5.37 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 825 | 112 | 69 | 35 | 100% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.91 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frank Camarillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.15 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 113 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 89 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 88 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 87 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 85 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 85 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 85 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 84 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 84 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 83 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 83 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 82 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 82 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 82 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 82 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Slade Cecconi R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.09 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 13.6% | 397 | +0.43 | 4.09 | 700 | 81 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.90 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .296 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.29 | 3.48 | 363 | 80 |
| Kyle Funkhouser R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .329 | 4.35 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 193 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 387 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 37 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 1.16 | 4.19 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |