Grayson Grinsell

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#905ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ADET	21	12	74	5.23	4.28	25.5%	11.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	—	—	0	5.16	5.16	20.0%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBDET	5	5	29	4.86	4.77	21.3%	11.3%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBDET	8	8	51	4.68	4.58	22.1%	10.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsNate Peterson (age 23) · Hayden Wynja (age 24) · Adam Tulloch (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%20.0%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
2026	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	3.3%	5.23	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	12.7%	7.3%	3.2%	5.16	5.16	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	95	401	85	45	13	100%	6.3	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.2%	4.93	4.84	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	100	421	93	44	13	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.75	4.65	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	106	445	100	46	14	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.59	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	17	17	102	431	97	44	14	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.62	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	97	410	92	43	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.71	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	90	381	84	41	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	82	346	75	38	13	100%	6.3	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	3.6%	4.92	5.02	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	310	66	35	12	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.8%	5.10	5.22	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	29	122	26	14	4	100%	5.8	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	48	22	6	100%	6.4	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.58	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	69	291	66	30	9	100%	6.3	22.5%	10.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.52	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	75	317	71	33	10	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.3%	12.2%	3.0%	4.56	4.55	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	77	325	73	34	10	100%	6.4	22.4%	10.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	75	317	70	34	10	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.7%	11.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	70	296	64	32	10	100%	6.4	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.94	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	64	270	58	31	10	100%	6.4	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	509	2150	475	229	69	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.35	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	187	90	27	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.6%	11.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		21	12	74	333	63	45	14	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	32	200	900	170	121	39	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 74 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.57 (+1.36)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.740	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.41%	—	×1.180	13.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.30%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Grinsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.69	22.0%	11.4%	300	-0.47	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	88
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	88
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	85
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	83
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	82
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	81
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	80
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	80
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	80
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	80
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	79
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	21.8%	10.9%	1.28	4.83
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*