Grayson Grinsell

Grayson Grinsell P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	14	8	49	219	58	23	5	57%	3.5	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.0%	5.14	4.64	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	DET	8	8	51	215	49	20	6	100%	6.4	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	DET	—	—	100	434	107	43	11	—	—	24.6%	9.8%	14.8%	2.6%	4.75	4.50	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	DET	14	14	87	367	86	32	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.9
2028	24	MLB	DET	19	19	115	486	117	41	14	100%	6.1	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.12	+1.7
2029	25	MLB	DET	22	22	134	568	138	47	17	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.07	+2.1
2030	26	MLB	DET	24	24	146	619	151	51	18	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.2%	16.3%	2.9%	4.08	4.05	+2.3
2031	27	MLB	DET	24	24	144	609	149	50	18	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.2%	16.2%	3.0%	4.09	4.09	+2.2
2032	28	MLB	DET	23	23	140	591	144	50	18	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	3.1%	4.14	4.18	+2.0
2033	29	MLB	DET	22	22	134	565	136	49	18	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.6%	15.4%	3.2%	4.24	4.31	+1.7
2034	30	MLB	DET	21	21	126	531	126	47	18	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.39	4.48	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	DET	19	19	117	495	115	46	18	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.6%	4.57	4.69	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	DET	18	18	108	458	105	44	18	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.9%	4.78	4.91	+0.6
2037	33	MLB	DET	16	16	100	420	94	43	18	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	4.2%	5.01	5.16	+0.3
2038	34	MLB	DET	15	15	90	382	83	41	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	4.5%	5.27	5.44	-0.3
2027	23	MLB	DET	7	7	43	182	43	16	5	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.7%	14.8%	2.8%	4.21	4.15	+0.2
2028	24	MLB	DET	13	13	80	338	81	28	9	100%	6.2	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.05	+0.9
2029	25	MLB	DET	18	18	109	460	112	38	13	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.8%	4.05	4.00	+1.8
2030	26	MLB	DET	21	21	128	540	132	44	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.2%	16.3%	2.8%	4.01	3.98	+2.1
2031	27	MLB	DET	21	21	130	549	134	45	16	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.2%	16.2%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+2.1
2032	28	MLB	DET	21	21	129	545	132	46	16	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.11	+1.9
2033	29	MLB	DET	20	20	124	524	126	45	16	100%	6.2	24.1%	8.6%	15.4%	3.1%	4.16	4.23	+1.7
2034	30	MLB	DET	19	19	118	498	118	44	16	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.3%	4.31	4.40	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	DET	18	18	111	469	109	43	16	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.5%	4.49	4.61	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	DET	17	17	103	435	99	42	16	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.7%	4.69	4.82	+0.7
2037	33	MLB	DET	16	16	95	401	90	41	16	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	4.0%	4.91	5.06	+0.3
2038	34	MLB	DET	13	13	82	346	75	37	15	100%	6.3	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	4.3%	5.17	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			204	204	1252	5287	1252	469	170	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.32	3.99	+20.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	200	75	27	100%	6.1	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.32	3.99	+3.3
Career	—			14	8	49	219	43	27	6	57%	3.5	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.0%	5.14	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—			57	33	200	894	175	111	27	57%	3.5	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.0%	5.14	4.64	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Grinsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.6%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.13	24.0%	15.6%	336	-0.24	—	—	—
Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP-	4.63	18.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.332	4.35	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.28	3.54	186	84
Will Johnston L 2027 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP-	4.21	24.8%	11.6%	3.2%	.290	4.34	22.8%	8.6%	82	+0.13	4.04	174	83
James Reeves L 2027 · 3.50 FIP	23	SW	3.50	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.20	2.02	280	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	23.3%	11.3%	2.4%	.286	4.89	18.1%	2.5%	99	+1.00	3.89	176	82
Bryan Sammons L 2026 · 3.60 FIP	22	SP-	3.60	22.7%	10.5%	2.0%	.275	3.91	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.31	3.53	688	81
Sonny Vargas L 2024 · 4.43 FIP	20	SP-	4.43	21.0%	10.1%	3.3%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	81
Keyshawn Askew L 2026 · 3.37 FIP	22	SW	3.37	25.6%	12.2%	1.6%	.274	3.78	20.7%	5.5%	196	+0.41	3.37	262	81
Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.32 FIP	22	SP-	3.32	23.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.271	3.89	22.0%	13.9%	71	+0.57	3.32	153	80
Nate Peterson L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	18.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.284	4.47	17.1%	5.8%	213	+0.07	3.67	288	80
Kyle Twomey L 2026 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.89	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.19	3.89	141	80
Jordan Woods L 2026 · 3.74 FIP	22	SW	3.74	24.2%	10.4%	2.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	143	79
Hayden Wynja L 2028 · 4.84 FIP	24	SP-	4.84	20.5%	10.5%	3.9%	.315	4.77	18.0%	7.5%	56	-0.07	4.77	154	79
Patrick Wicklander L 2026 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	21.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.320	4.91	16.4%	5.8%	156	+0.03	4.80	254	79
Garrett Schoenle L 2028 · 4.66 FIP	24	SW	4.66	21.4%	10.8%	3.6%	.263	4.29	21.0%	9.5%	219	-0.37	2.34	338	78
Alex Cornwell L 2027 · 3.97 FIP	23	SW	3.97	18.9%	7.3%	2.8%	.382	3.85	16.5%	8.0%	311	-0.12	3.10	381	77
Ryan Williamson L 2027 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.67	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.57	4.10	123	77
Robby Ahlstrom L 2027 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	20.1%	9.0%	3.5%	.349	4.18	22.0%	8.2%	175	-0.31	3.65	308	77
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	77
Tommy Sommer L 2026 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	23.9%	9.3%	4.2%	.196	5.30	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.20	230	76
Bailey Horn L 2027 · 5.16 FIP	23	SP-	5.16	19.7%	12.7%	3.9%	.300	4.71	22.7%	9.5%	152	-0.45	4.13	265	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	115	23.7%	8.9%	1.28	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46