Grayson Grinsell

Grayson Grinsell P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%21.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	DET	21	12	74	333	85	38	11	57%	3.5	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	3.3%	5.23	4.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	109	461	99	50	14	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	138	582	130	58	17	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	26	26	158	665	153	63	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	28	28	170	716	166	68	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	167	706	163	67	21	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	26	26	162	684	158	66	21	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.7%	13.4%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	155	654	149	65	21	100%	6.2	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	146	614	138	63	21	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	136	573	126	60	21	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	3.7%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	126	530	114	58	21	100%	6.3	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.9%	5.06	5.20	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	54	228	49	25	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	96	405	91	41	11	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.48	4.41	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	128	540	124	52	15	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	2.8%	4.37	4.30	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	148	625	145	59	18	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.4%	13.7%	2.8%	4.31	4.27	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	151	638	148	61	18	100%	6.3	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	149	629	145	61	19	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.36	4.39	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	DET	23	23	144	608	139	60	19	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.51	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	136	574	129	59	19	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.3%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	129	545	120	57	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	3.5%	4.76	4.88	-0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	119	502	109	55	19	100%	6.3	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	3.8%	4.97	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	203	1254	5297	1198	529	164	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.15	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	191	84	26	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		21	12	74	333	63	45	14	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	32	200	900	170	121	39	57%	3.5	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	4.3%	5.23	5.57	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Grinsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	21.8%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.49	22.4%	12.3%	405	-0.24	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	82
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	79
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	79
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	79
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	79
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	78
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	76
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	75
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	74
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	74
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	74
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	74
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	72
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72
Didier Vargas L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	15.8%	8.7%	2.9%	.346	4.12	18.9%	8.2%	110	-0.36	3.58	286	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	136	22.6%	10.0%	1.24	4.58
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17