Austin Gordon — OGILVIE

Austin Gordon P Rocket City Trash Pandas

+0.7 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.9%

IP84

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	5.44	4.70	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	3	3	14	60	10	10	2	13.5%	18.3%	4.0%	3.86	6.48	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	LAA	15	15	84	356	77	31	12	21.7%	8.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
2026 Total	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	98	416	87	41	14	21.0%	9.9%	3.3%	4.44	4.82	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	LAA	19	19	102	432	96	36	14	22.3%	8.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.41	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	LAA	21	21	116	489	111	40	15	22.7%	8.2%	3.2%	4.38	4.35	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	LAA	22	22	123	518	118	42	16	22.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.32	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	LAA	23	23	126	531	121	44	17	22.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.33	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	LAA	23	23	126	532	121	44	17	22.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.35	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	LAA	22	22	123	520	118	43	17	22.7%	8.3%	3.2%	4.37	4.40	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	LAA	22	22	119	504	113	42	17	22.5%	8.4%	3.3%	4.42	4.46	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	LAA	21	21	115	486	108	42	16	22.2%	8.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.53	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	LAA	20	20	111	467	103	41	16	21.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.62	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	LAA	19	19	106	446	96	40	16	21.6%	8.9%	3.5%	4.66	4.72	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	LAA	18	18	100	423	90	38	15	21.3%	9.1%	3.6%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	LAA	17	17	94	399	83	37	15	20.9%	9.3%	3.7%	4.87	4.95	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	LAA	16	16	88	373	76	36	14	20.5%	9.6%	3.9%	5.00	5.08	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	24	98	435	81	42	17	18.7%	9.7%	4.0%	5.22	4.94	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—			49	49	200	885	165	85	35	18.7%	9.7%	4.0%	5.22	4.94	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.7%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.36	22.6%	14.3%	341	-0.18	—	—	—
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	92
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	92
Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.83	4.02	118	89
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	89
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	88
Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.60	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.18	2.60	155	88
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	88
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	88
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	88
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	88
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	5.37	11.6%	2.7%	93	+1.85	3.52	175	88
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	88
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	88
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	88
Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	19.8%	7.9%	2.3%	.236	4.02	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.11	321	88
Seth Shuman R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.45	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.45	3.67	306	87
Cody Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP-	3.68	21.6%	8.1%	2.5%	.362	2.90	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.78	2.23	256	87
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.98	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.25	3.55	357	87
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	87
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.3	$12M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.0	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$15M		$71M	+$56M