Austin Gordon

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#598ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+LAA	21	21	84	5.44	3.66	25.3%	7.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.70
2026	23	AALAA	26	26	124	4.78	4.34	25.7%	7.9%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	1	1	3	4.92	4.92	21.1%	8.4%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBLAA	7	7	39	4.84	4.81	21.8%	8.2%	0.3
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBLAA	10	10	59	4.76	4.74	22.1%	8.1%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 7.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.1%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.0%	5.44	4.70	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.0%	5.44	4.70	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	3.2%	5.44	3.66	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	5.3%	4.78	5.34	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	5.3%	4.78	5.34	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	4.4%	4.78	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	3.9%	4.92	4.92	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	121	512	112	42	20	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.8%	4.80	4.77	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	114	479	106	39	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.8%	4.72	4.70	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	458	101	37	17	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.2%	14.0%	3.8%	4.71	4.71	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	103	434	95	36	17	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	3.9%	4.75	4.79	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	96	404	88	34	16	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	4.0%	4.85	4.92	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	87	366	78	32	15	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	4.2%	5.00	5.10	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	39	165	36	13	6	100%	5.6	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.9%	4.84	4.81	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	55	20	10	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	3.8%	4.76	4.74	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	69	291	64	24	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	8.2%	14.0%	3.8%	4.75	4.75	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	69	26	12	100%	6.2	22.0%	8.3%	13.7%	3.9%	4.79	4.83	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	68	27	13	100%	6.2	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	4.1%	4.89	4.96	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	71	300	64	26	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	4.3%	5.05	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	385	1627	356	136	65	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	4.0%	4.85	4.50	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	71	34	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	4.0%	4.85	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		47	47	209	897	182	76	43	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.7%	5.05	5.07	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	860	174	73	41	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.7%	5.05	5.07	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 124 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.34 (+1.00)K% 25.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.67%	—	×0.810	20.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.85%	—	×1.100	8.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 84 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.70 (+1.07)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.33%	—	×0.770	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.20%	—	×1.150	8.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	4.73	22.0%	13.9%	343	-0.19	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	89
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	86
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	84
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	84
Tanner Gordon R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	20.8%	8.0%	4.3%	.330	4.56	17.3%	12.0%	363	-0.16	4.10	715	83
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Osmer Morales R 2017 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	18.9%	10.1%	4.4%	.294	5.33	16.9%	4.5%	102	+0.11	3.14	429	82
Jeff Bain R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	23	SP	5.11	21.7%	8.7%	5.0%	.303	4.63	19.9%	11.9%	124	-0.48	3.35	475	82
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	82
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	81
Jonathan Heasley R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	21.0%	8.2%	5.2%	.289	5.37	17.5%	8.9%	284	+0.12	3.72	607	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	81
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	81
Thomas Hatch R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	24	SP	4.98	18.4%	7.7%	4.5%	.295	4.22	19.6%	11.8%	222	-0.76	3.18	878	80
Ramón Rosso R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	18.6%	8.9%	4.7%	.264	4.28	18.4%	4.3%	29	-0.93	2.13	333	80
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	110	21.7%	8.3%	1.51	4.82
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*