Austin Gordon — OGILVIE

Austin Gordon P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%20.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL5055

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.0%	5.44	4.70	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	4.0%	5.44	4.70	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	21	21	84	375	95	27	12	100%	4.0	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	3.2%	5.44	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	5.3%	4.78	5.34	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	5.3%	4.78	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	LAA	26	26	124	522	134	41	23	100%	4.8	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	4.4%	4.78	4.35	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	LAA	1	1	6	24	5	2	1	100%	5.6	20.3%	8.2%	12.2%	3.2%	4.58	4.58	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	130	546	139	43	24	—	—	25.4%	7.9%	17.6%	4.4%	4.77	5.31	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	125	527	113	42	17	100%	5.7	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	3.2%	4.47	4.42	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	126	534	118	41	17	100%	5.7	22.0%	7.8%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.33	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	126	534	119	41	17	100%	6.0	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.30	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	124	526	117	41	17	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.34	4.34	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	121	510	113	40	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.39	4.42	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	115	487	107	40	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	3.4%	4.49	4.55	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	458	99	39	17	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	101	427	91	38	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	94	395	82	36	16	100%	5.8	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	4.1%	5.02	5.16	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	55	232	50	18	8	100%	5.5	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	3.3%	4.51	4.46	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	85	359	79	28	12	100%	5.7	22.0%	7.8%	14.3%	3.2%	4.41	4.36	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	101	426	95	33	14	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.33	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	106	448	100	35	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	108	456	101	36	15	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.43	4.46	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	105	443	97	36	16	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.2%	13.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.59	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	100	422	91	36	16	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.7%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	94	397	84	35	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	4.0%	4.85	4.97	-0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	88	372	77	34	16	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	4.2%	5.07	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	841	3550	773	291	125	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.5%	4.57	4.23	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	69	30	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.5%	4.57	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		47	47	209	897	182	76	43	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.7%	5.05	5.07	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	860	174	73	41	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.7%	5.05	5.07	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Gordon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.3%	8.2%	3.2%	—	4.35	21.9%	14.1%	378	-0.23	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	87
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	87
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	85
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	84
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	83
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	83
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	83
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	82
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	82
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	110	21.7%	8.1%	1.32	4.52
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75