Jeff Bain
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.5%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | 14 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 3.94 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | 14 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 2.2% | 4.09 | 2.51 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 577 | 127 | 40 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 1.1% | 2.93 | 3.37 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 138 | 577 | 127 | 40 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 0.9% | 2.93 | 2.60 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 136 | 577 | 162 | 44 | 25 | 96% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 3.91 | 4.91 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 136 | 577 | 162 | 44 | 25 | 96% | 5.2 | 28.1% | 7.6% | 20.5% | 4.3% | 3.91 | 4.08 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 62 | 282 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 21% | 2.2 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 5.34 | 3.86 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 62 | 282 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 21% | 2.2 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 5.34 | 3.85 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 7 | 70 | 290 | 77 | 19 | 14 | 16% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 15.1% | 5.1% | 3.62 | 4.93 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 7 | 70 | 290 | 77 | 19 | 14 | 16% | 1.5 | 26.6% | 6.6% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 3.62 | 4.32 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 19 | 7 | 55 | 255 | 48 | 17 | 17 | 37% | 2.9 | 15.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 7.16 | 4.67 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 19 | 7 | 55 | 255 | 48 | 17 | 17 | 37% | 2.9 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 7.16 | 6.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.45 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 85 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 157 | 70 | 483 | 2074 | 389 | 168 | 65 | 45% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 29 | 200 | 859 | 161 | 70 | 27 | 45% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeff Bain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 21.8% | 12.1% | 97 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 74 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 72 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 71 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 70 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 70 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 68 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 67 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 67 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 66 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 66 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 66 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 65 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 64 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 63 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 63 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 63 |
| Paul Clemens R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 22.0% | 9.5% | 1.30 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |