Jonathan Heasley
P
Durham Bulls
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.09
FIP5.18
K%17.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (58%)
CU (23%)
FB-4.2 (19%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 12 | 11 | 51 | 227 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 5.15 | 4.68 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 12 | 11 | 51 | 227 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 92% | 4.2 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 5.15 | 3.69 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 25 | 20 | 113 | 467 | 120 | 34 | 11 | 80% | 4.5 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 3.12 | 3.99 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 25 | 20 | 113 | 467 | 120 | 34 | 11 | 80% | 4.5 | 25.7% | 7.3% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 3.12 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 120 | 492 | 126 | 37 | 21 | 96% | 4.8 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 3.52 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 120 | 492 | 126 | 37 | 21 | 96% | 4.8 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 18.1% | 4.3% | 3.52 | 4.20 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 143 | 625 | 115 | 57 | 26 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 5.02 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 143 | 625 | 115 | 57 | 26 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 5.02 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 15 | 110 | 492 | 97 | 47 | 25 | 34% | 2.5 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.89 | 6.26 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 15 | 110 | 492 | 97 | 47 | 25 | 34% | 2.5 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 6.89 | 5.58 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 3 | 36 | 153 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 21% | 2.6 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 3 | 36 | 153 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 21% | 2.6 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.0% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 6.48 | 5.75 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.9% | 2.7% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 6.48 | 5.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 4 | 32 | 134 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 50% | 4.0 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 63 | 265 | 42 | 18 | 10 | — | — | 16.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | TB | — | — | 35 | 148 | 42 | 18 | 10 | — | — | 28.7% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 6.6% | 8.87 | 5.83 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 34 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 5.27 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.7% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 42 | 179 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.9% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.72 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 33 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 5.27 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.7% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.48 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | TB | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.9% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.72 | 5.88 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 50 | 305 | 1317 | 200 | 121 | 58 | 75% | 4.5 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.70 | 5.40 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 131 | 79 | 38 | 75% | 4.6 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.70 | 5.40 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 170 | 107 | 621 | 2664 | 470 | 228 | 115 | 63% | 3.7 | 17.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 5.07 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 34 | 200 | 858 | 151 | 74 | 37 | 63% | 3.7 | 17.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 4.74 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Heasley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | — | 5.62 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 137 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 75 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 74 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 74 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 71 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 71 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 71 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 71 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 71 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 70 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 70 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 69 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 69 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 69 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 69 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 1.53 | 5.40 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |