Jonathan Heasley

Jonathan Heasley P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.06

FIP5.12

K%16.6%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

SL (58%)

CU (23%)

FB-4.2 (19%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	11	51	227	35	16	4	92%	4.2	10.5%	8.8%	1.7%	2.5%	5.15	4.68	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	11	51	227	35	16	4	92%	4.2	15.4%	7.0%	8.4%	1.8%	5.15	3.69	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lexington Legends	25	20	113	467	120	34	11	80%	4.5	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.8%	3.12	4.12	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lexington Legends	25	20	113	467	120	34	11	80%	4.5	25.7%	7.3%	18.4%	2.4%	3.12	3.14	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	120	492	126	37	21	96%	4.8	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	5.2%	3.52	5.25	-0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	120	492	126	37	21	96%	4.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	4.3%	3.52	4.20	+1.0
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	143	625	115	57	26	100%	4.8	17.5%	9.2%	8.3%	4.5%	5.02	5.28	-0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	143	625	115	57	26	100%	4.8	18.4%	9.1%	9.3%	4.2%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	15	110	492	97	47	25	34%	2.5	16.7%	8.6%	8.0%	5.8%	6.89	5.99	-1.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	15	110	492	97	47	25	34%	2.5	16.7%	8.6%	8.0%	5.8%	6.89	5.99	-1.8
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	15	110	492	97	47	25	34%	2.5	19.7%	9.6%	10.2%	5.1%	6.89	5.58	-1.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.75	3.78	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	2.7%	4.75	3.78	+0.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.10	+0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.0%	4.2%	9.8%	6.4%	6.48	5.98	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.0%	4.2%	9.8%	6.4%	6.48	5.98	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.9%	2.7%	12.2%	5.4%	6.48	5.26	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	24	143	635	91	55	31	59%	3.5	14.3%	8.7%	5.7%	4.9%	6.04	5.80	-1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	4	32	134	20	6	5	50%	4.0	13.0%	4.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.17	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	4	32	134	20	6	5	50%	4.0	13.0%	4.7%	8.3%	2.9%	4.83	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	TB	7	4	28	115	18	6	3	57%	4.0	15.7%	5.2%	10.4%	2.6%	3.90	3.87	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	TB	1	0	4	19	2	0	2	0%	4.0	10.5%	0.0%	10.5%	10.5%	11.25	7.99	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	TB	1	0	4	19	2	0	2	0%	4.0	10.5%	0.0%	10.5%	10.5%	11.25	7.99	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TB	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	0.9	16.6%	8.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.06	5.12	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	TB	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.6%	8.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.06	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	33	138	21	6	5	—	—	15.0%	4.6%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.20	+0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	5	21	21	6	5	—	—	98.9%	30.3%	68.6%	24.6%	31.90	12.11	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	49	207	33	18	8	100%	6.1	15.9%	8.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.22	5.33	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	46	193	29	18	8	100%	5.7	15.1%	9.1%	6.0%	4.0%	5.43	5.56	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	42	179	26	17	8	100%	6.1	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	4.3%	5.66	5.82	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	47	198	31	17	8	100%	5.9	15.9%	8.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.22	5.33	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	44	186	28	17	7	100%	6.3	15.1%	9.1%	6.0%	4.0%	5.43	5.56	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	40	169	24	16	7	100%	5.7	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	4.3%	5.66	5.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	46	274	1190	175	105	53	73%	4.4	14.7%	8.9%	5.9%	4.5%	5.75	5.44	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	33	200	867	128	77	39	73%	4.4	14.7%	8.9%	5.9%	4.5%	5.75	5.44	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		170	107	621	2664	463	219	114	63%	3.7	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	4.3%	4.74	5.03	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	34	200	858	149	71	37	63%	3.7	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	4.3%	4.74	5.03	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Heasley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	16.6%	8.4%	3.6%	—	5.56	15.1%	6.1%	137	+0.44	—	—	—
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	79
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	75
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	75
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	73
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	73
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	72
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	72
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	72
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	72
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	72
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	72
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	71
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	71
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	70
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	15.5%	8.9%	1.51	5.33
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78