Jonathan Heasley

P Durham Bulls

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	14	3	36	4.75	4.10	20.3%	7.2%	0.2	K 18.7% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.72
2025	28	MIX2 levels	12	0	17	6.48	5.26	14.9%	2.7%	—	K 14.0% · BB 4.2% · FIP 5.98
2026	29	MIX2 levels	8	4	32	4.83	4.46	14.9%	4.5%	0.3	K 13.5% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.13
2027PROJ	30	MLBTB	5	5	31	4.93	4.86	15.1%	7.0%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBTB	7	7	42	5.03	5.09	14.3%	7.4%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBTB	6	6	34	5.22	5.35	13.5%	7.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff41Control46Command33FB velo48

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.93

FIP4.86

K%15.1%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	11	51	227	35	16	4	92%	4.2	10.5%	8.8%	1.7%	2.5%	5.15	4.68	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	12	11	51	227	35	16	4	92%	4.2	15.4%	7.0%	8.4%	1.8%	5.15	3.69	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lexington Legends	25	20	113	467	120	34	11	80%	4.5	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.8%	3.12	4.12	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lexington Legends	25	20	113	467	120	34	11	80%	4.5	25.7%	7.3%	18.4%	2.4%	3.12	3.14	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	120	492	126	37	21	96%	4.8	21.0%	8.2%	12.8%	5.2%	3.52	5.25	+0.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	120	492	126	37	21	96%	4.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	4.3%	3.52	4.20	+1.7
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	143	625	115	57	26	100%	4.8	17.5%	9.2%	8.3%	4.5%	5.02	5.28	+0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	143	625	115	57	26	100%	4.8	18.4%	9.1%	9.3%	4.2%	5.02	5.05	+0.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	15	110	492	97	47	25	34%	2.5	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	5.8%	6.89	5.95	-1.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	15	110	492	97	47	25	34%	2.5	19.7%	9.6%	10.2%	5.1%	6.89	5.58	-1.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	18.7%	5.8%	12.9%	2.7%	4.75	3.72	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	18.7%	5.8%	12.9%	2.7%	4.75	3.72	+0.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	3	36	153	31	11	5	21%	2.6	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.10	+0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.0%	4.2%	9.8%	6.4%	6.48	5.98	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.0%	4.2%	9.8%	6.4%	6.48	5.98	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	17	74	11	2	4	0%	1.4	14.9%	2.7%	12.2%	5.4%	6.48	5.26	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	32	134	20	6	5	50%	4.0	13.5%	4.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.13	+0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	32	134	20	6	5	50%	4.0	13.5%	4.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.13	+0.5
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	32	134	20	6	5	50%	4.0	14.9%	4.5%	10.4%	3.7%	4.83	4.46	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	24	143	635	91	55	31	59%	3.5	14.3%	8.7%	5.7%	4.9%	6.04	5.80	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TB	5	5	31	131	20	9	4	100%	6.2	15.1%	7.0%	8.1%	3.2%	4.93	4.86	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	44	187	27	14	6	100%	6.3	14.3%	7.4%	7.0%	3.4%	5.03	5.09	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	6	6	36	152	21	12	6	100%	6.0	13.5%	7.8%	5.8%	3.7%	5.22	5.35	+0.0
2030	33	MLB MLE	TB	5	5	30	125	16	10	5	100%	5.9	12.7%	8.2%	4.5%	4.0%	5.46	5.63	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	42	177	25	13	6	100%	6.0	14.3%	7.4%	7.0%	3.4%	5.03	5.09	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	34	144	19	11	5	100%	5.7	13.5%	7.8%	5.8%	3.7%	5.22	5.35	+0.0
2030	33	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	28	118	15	10	5	100%	5.6	12.7%	8.2%	4.5%	4.0%	5.46	5.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	41	247	1075	151	89	47	71%	4.3	14.0%	8.3%	5.8%	4.4%	5.69	5.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	33	200	870	122	72	38	71%	4.2	14.0%	8.3%	5.8%	4.4%	5.69	5.37	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		170	107	621	2664	467	219	114	63%	3.7	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	4.74	5.01	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	34	200	858	151	71	37	63%	3.7	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	4.3%	4.74	5.01	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 28 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.13 (+0.26)K% 15.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.65%	—	×0.860	13.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.22%	—	×0.900	4.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 13 IPFIP 5.29 → 5.98 (+0.69)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.31%	—	×0.810	14.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.100	4.23%
HR / BF /BF	5.77%	÷1.077	×1.200	6.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 5.29 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 4 IPFIP 4.83 → 5.18 (+0.35)K% 9.1% → 7.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.09%	—	×0.860	7.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.98%

Result: FIP 4.83 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 31 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.72 (+0.31)K% 21.8% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.77%	—	×0.860	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 95 IPFIP 5.26 → 5.79 (+0.54)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.860	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.49%	—	×0.900	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	4.66%	÷0.942	×1.100	5.44%

Result: FIP 5.26 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 39 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.53 (+0.61)K% 28.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.880	24.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.050	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	4.38%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 105 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.16 (+1.12)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.71%	—	×0.810	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.85%	—	×1.100	8.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.16%	÷0.957	×1.200	5.21%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALexington Legends · 113 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.12 (+0.97)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.70%	—	×0.740	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.28%	—	×1.180	8.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.095	×1.300	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Heasley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	15.1%	7.0%	3.2%	—	5.32	13.6%	5.9%	110	+0.46	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	76
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	73
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	69
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	68
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	67
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	66
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	65
Ryan Glynn R 2005 · 5.98 FIP	30	SP-	5.98	18.3%	8.5%	6.1%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	5.23	226	64
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	64
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	63
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	63
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	61
Omar Bencomo R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	30	SP-	4.69	11.3%	6.6%	3.1%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	381	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	14.2%	8.1%	1.63	5.59
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*