Thomas Hatch
P
Reno Aces
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.86
FIP4.75
xFIP5.29
SIERA5.18
K%18.5%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%9.8%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
CH+0.6 (18%)
SI (17%)
FB-1.6 (29%)
SL-1.8 (26%)
CT-3.4 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 26 | 125 | 543 | 126 | 49 | 2 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 0.5% | 4.04 | 3.18 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 26 | 26 | 144 | 601 | 117 | 61 | 16 | 15.8% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 3.82 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 27 | 135 | 560 | 127 | 39 | 18 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.12 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 17 | 1 | 26 | 109 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 2.73 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 18 | 16 | 74 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 12 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 23 | 136 | 584 | 117 | 40 | 19 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.17 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49 | 5 | 75 | 333 | 82 | 32 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.11 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 19 | 126 | 540 | 100 | 43 | 16 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 3 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 15 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.09 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 91 | 40 | 14 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 121 | 509 | 106 | 42 | 16 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.20 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 85 | 39 | 14 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 78 | 38 | 14 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 71 | 37 | 14 | 17.6% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 64 | 36 | 13 | 16.9% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 57 | 35 | 13 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 225 | 146 | 852 | 3632 | 674 | 324 | 110 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 158 | 76 | 26 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Hatch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.86 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 303 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 71 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 69 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 69 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 69 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.14 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 1.9% | .351 | 4.35 | 11.7% | 4.0% | 89 | +0.21 | 4.14 | 275 | 67 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.00 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% | .313 | 5.07 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | +0.07 | 4.87 | 294 | 67 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 66 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 65 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.74 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.4% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 406 | 65 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.81 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 5.01 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.20 | 3.81 | 162 | 65 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.58 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.49 | 3.58 | 139 | 65 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 64 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.61 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.15 | 3.58 | 291 | 64 |
| Scott McGregor R 2023 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 64 |
| David Fletcher R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 63 |
| Alex Caldera R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.57 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 120 | 63 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 63 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 63 |
| Manny Barreda R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.19 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.34 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 40 | -1.85 | 3.25 | 376 | 62 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.