Thomas Hatch

P Reno Aces

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	49	5	75	4.42	3.92	24.6%	9.6%	0.6	K 22.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.04
2025	30	MIX2 levels	30	19	126	4.66	4.19	18.5%	8.0%	1.8	K 16.5% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.36
2026	31	AAAARI	11	11	52	4.01	4.88	16.0%	4.7%	—	K 13.7% · BB 4.2% · FIP 5.31
2027PROJ	32	MLBARI	1	1	8	4.81	4.82	17.1%	7.2%	0.1
2028PROJ40% MLB	33	MLBARI	2	2	12	4.98	5.10	16.3%	7.7%	0.0
2029PROJ35% MLB	34	MLBARI	1	1	6	5.23	5.40	15.4%	8.2%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo33

xwOBA vs28

K%10

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Jesus Adrian Castillo (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.82

K%17.1%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p1019.2%

p1014.5%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	26	125	543	126	49	2	100%	4.8	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	0.5%	4.04	3.18	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	26	125	543	126	49	2	100%	4.8	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	0.4%	4.04	2.47	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	144	601	117	61	16	100%	5.5	15.8%	11.2%	4.6%	3.4%	3.82	5.03	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	144	601	117	61	16	100%	5.5	19.5%	10.1%	9.3%	2.7%	3.82	4.19	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	27	27	135	560	127	39	18	100%	5.0	18.4%	7.7%	10.7%	4.5%	4.12	4.98	—
2019	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	27	27	135	560	127	39	18	100%	5.0	22.7%	7.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.12	3.82	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	17	1	26	109	23	13	2	6%	1.5	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	1.8%	2.73	3.84	+0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	17	1	26	109	23	13	2	6%	1.5	21.1%	11.9%	9.2%	1.8%	2.73	3.82	+0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	74	318	78	25	12	89%	4.1	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.7%	4.38	4.17	+1.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	74	318	78	25	12	89%	4.1	24.5%	7.9%	16.7%	3.8%	4.38	4.11	+1.1
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	136	584	117	40	19	79%	4.7	17.8%	7.2%	10.7%	3.3%	5.17	4.32	+1.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	136	584	117	40	19	79%	4.7	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	3.3%	5.17	4.08	+2.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	75	333	82	32	10	10%	1.5	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.42	4.04	+0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	5	75	333	82	32	10	10%	1.5	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.42	3.92	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	19	126	540	100	43	16	63%	4.2	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.36	+1.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	19	126	540	100	43	16	63%	4.2	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.36	+1.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	19	126	540	100	43	16	63%	4.2	18.5%	8.0%	10.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.19	+1.8
2026	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	11	11	52	213	34	10	10	100%	4.7	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	5.2%	4.01	5.31	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	11	11	52	213	34	10	10	100%	4.7	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	5.2%	4.01	5.31	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	11	11	52	213	34	10	10	100%	4.7	16.0%	4.7%	11.3%	4.7%	4.01	4.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			51	7	103	461	83	47	16	14%	2.0	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.5%	5.24	4.88	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ARI	1	1	8	34	6	2	1	100%	8.0	17.1%	7.2%	9.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	5	5	30	128	21	10	5	100%	6.1	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	3.7%	4.98	5.10	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	ARI	3	3	16	68	10	6	3	100%	5.3	15.4%	8.2%	7.2%	4.0%	5.23	5.40	0.0
2030	35	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	8	35	5	3	2	100%	8.3	14.4%	8.7%	5.7%	4.3%	5.53	5.74	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	12	51	8	4	2	100%	6.0	16.3%	7.7%	8.6%	3.7%	4.98	5.10	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	15.4%	8.2%	7.2%	4.0%	5.23	5.40	0.0
2030	35	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	3	13	2	1	1	100%	3.0	14.4%	8.7%	5.7%	4.3%	5.53	5.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	10	123	546	96	54	19	19%	2.3	17.7%	9.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.22	4.79	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		88	17	200	887	156	88	31	19%	2.3	17.7%	9.8%	7.8%	3.5%	5.22	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		233	154	892	3801	686	323	119	66%	3.8	18.0%	8.5%	9.5%	3.1%	4.30	4.38	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	852	154	72	27	66%	3.8	18.0%	8.5%	9.5%	3.1%	4.30	4.38	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 52 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.31 (+0.39)K% 16.0% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.96%	—	×0.860	13.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.69%	—	×0.900	4.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 92 IPFIP 3.59 → 3.86 (+0.27)K% 20.1% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.860	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×0.900	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.54%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 47 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.44 (+0.20)K% 27.5% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.45%	—	×0.860	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×0.900	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.095	×1.100	3.94%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 131 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.32 (+0.49)K% 20.3% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.880	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.81%	—	×1.050	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷0.951	×1.100	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 65 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.17 (+0.34)K% 25.6% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.880	22.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.96%	—	×1.050	7.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.081	×1.100	3.73%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 135 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.98 (+1.15)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.68%	—	×0.810	18.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.96%	—	×1.100	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷0.860	×1.200	4.48%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATennessee Smokies · 144 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.03 (+0.83)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.47%	—	×0.810	15.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.15%	—	×1.100	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷0.947	×1.200	3.37%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 125 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.18 (+0.69)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.20%	—	×0.770	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.150	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.37%	÷0.936	×1.250	0.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Hatch (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.20	16.0%	8.1%	46	+0.38	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	79
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	75
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	69
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	69
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	68
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	67
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	66
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	65
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	65
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	65
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	64
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	64
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	64
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	63
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	62
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	62
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	62
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	61
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	31	17.2%	9.2%	1.38	5.10
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*