Thomas Hatch
P
Reno Aces
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION173 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.72
FIP4.70
xFIP5.29
SIERA5.18
K%18.5%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%9.8%
IP174
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p1019.2%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
CH+0.6 (18%)
SI (17%)
FB-1.6 (29%)
SL-1.8 (26%)
CT-3.4 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 26 | 125 | 543 | 126 | 49 | 2 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 0.5% | 4.04 | 3.20 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 26 | 26 | 144 | 601 | 117 | 61 | 16 | 15.8% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 3.82 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 27 | 135 | 560 | 127 | 39 | 18 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.12 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 17 | 1 | 26 | 109 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 1.8% | 2.73 | 3.84 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 18 | 16 | 74 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 12 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 29 | 23 | 136 | 584 | 117 | 40 | 19 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49 | 5 | 75 | 333 | 82 | 32 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.00 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 30 | 19 | 126 | 540 | 100 | 43 | 16 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 11 | 11 | 52 | 213 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.01 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ARI | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 136 | 64 | 22 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.70 | +1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 225 | 946 | 170 | 74 | 32 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 4.85 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 161 | 679 | 120 | 62 | 23 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 147 | 622 | 105 | 59 | 22 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.24 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 134 | 566 | 90 | 57 | 22 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.36 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 76 | 54 | 22 | 15.0% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 5.67 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 63 | 50 | 21 | 14.0% | 11.2% | 4.6% | 6.02 | 6.25 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 233 | 154 | 892 | 3801 | 689 | 332 | 125 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.48 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 154 | 74 | 28 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Hatch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.23 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 442 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 60 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 57 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 55 |
| Nestor Molina R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 55 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 55 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 54 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 52 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 52 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 52 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.99 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 500 | 52 |
| David Martinez R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.96 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 297 | 51 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 51 |
| Kyle Davies R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 50 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 50 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.90 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.44 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.46 | 3.77 | 786 | 50 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 49 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.35 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | .314 | 4.71 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 132 | +0.36 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 49 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.30 | 12.5% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 237 | 49 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 49 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.55 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.86 | 13.2% | 8.8% | 55 | +0.31 | 4.55 | 363 | 48 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.