Ashton Izzi
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.18
FIP5.18
K%17.6%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%6.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 9 | 9 | 18 | 93 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 9.5% | 10.8% | -1.2% | 5.1% | 8.35 | 6.44 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 9 | 9 | 18 | 93 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 8.35 | 5.12 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 26 | 111 | 482 | 95 | 59 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 14.6% | 14.4% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 2.85 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 26 | 26 | 111 | 482 | 95 | 59 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 19.7% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 18 | 18 | 75 | 334 | 80 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 4.80 | 5.18 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 18 | 18 | 75 | 334 | 80 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 3.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 17 | 17 | 83 | 341 | 73 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 4.23 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 148 | 615 | 121 | 53 | 21 | — | — | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.97 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.6% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 110 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 119 | 58 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.69 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 141 | 594 | 124 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 125 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.55 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 139 | 585 | 124 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 119 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 112 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 104 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 113 | 475 | 95 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 86 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 5.28 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 84 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 115 | 486 | 101 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 110 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.59 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 111 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 110 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 104 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 97 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 90 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 82 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 185 | 1092 | 4612 | 946 | 461 | 155 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.48 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 84 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 70 | 287 | 1250 | 200 | 135 | 40 | 100% | 4.1 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.89 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 49 | 200 | 871 | 139 | 94 | 28 | 100% | 4.1 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ashton Izzi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.71 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 415 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Jamison Hill R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 90 |
| Ty Cummings R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.14 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .329 | 5.29 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 150 | +1.15 | 4.14 | 267 | 88 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.63 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 498 | 88 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.32 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .299 | 5.25 | 14.9% | 4.5% | 73 | -0.07 | 5.25 | 197 | 88 |
| Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.46 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.73 | 4.73 | 226 | 88 |
| Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.40 | 4.96 | 213 | 88 |
| Trent Baker R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .315 | 3.90 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.34 | 3.74 | 459 | 87 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.49 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | .293 | 5.36 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 88 | -0.13 | 5.03 | 185 | 86 |
| Alex Royalty R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .302 | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 151 | 86 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 86 |
| Bryce Osmond R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.59 | 18.0% | 12.4% | 4.4% | .294 | 7.24 | 16.2% | 3.7% | 64 | +1.65 | 5.59 | 161 | 85 |
| Will Sanders R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.17 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .297 | 4.04 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 167 | -1.13 | 3.89 | 259 | 85 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.59 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 364 | -0.12 | 4.33 | 485 | 85 |
| Riley Thompson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 85 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 85 |
| Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.92 | 16.4% | 14.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 4.97 | 17.8% | -8.8% | 40 | +0.05 | 4.92 | 156 | 85 |
| Victor Alcántara R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.56 | 15.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .337 | 4.14 | 16.3% | 5.6% | 267 | -0.42 | 3.56 | 464 | 84 |
| Trenton Denholm R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.22 | 18.3% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .368 | 4.05 | 16.5% | 10.2% | 352 | -0.17 | 3.33 | 527 | 84 |
| Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 84 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.18 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .323 | 3.85 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.33 | 2.82 | 175 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 130 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 1.26 | 4.84 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |