Ashton Izzi

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#420ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AModesto Nuts	26	26	111	2.85	3.45	19.7%	12.2%	—	K 14.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.36
2025	21	A+ARI	18	18	75	4.80	3.99	24.0%	8.4%	—	K 18.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.10
2026	22	MIX2 levels	28	28	130	5.26	4.47	20.2%	6.2%	—	K 16.7% · BB 6.4% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	1	1	3	5.25	5.25	16.9%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBARI	12	12	66	4.95	4.89	18.6%	8.3%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBARI	13	13	75	4.81	4.75	19.6%	8.1%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 6.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 81%

CompsJonathan Cannon (age 23) · Logan Workman (age 23) · Jamison Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.9%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP150

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	100%	2.0	9.5%	10.8%	-1.2%	4.8%	8.35	6.28	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	100%	2.0	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	3.2%	8.35	5.12	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	14.6%	14.4%	0.1%	1.2%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	14.6%	14.4%	0.1%	1.2%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	0.8%	2.85	3.45	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	4.3%	4.80	5.10	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	4.3%	4.80	5.10	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	3.3%	4.80	3.99	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	130	560	113	35	23	100%	4.6	16.7%	6.4%	10.3%	4.7%	5.26	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	130	560	113	35	23	100%	4.6	16.7%	6.4%	10.3%	4.7%	5.26	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	130	560	113	35	23	100%	4.6	20.2%	6.2%	13.9%	4.1%	5.26	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.8%	5.25	5.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	150	633	118	52	24	100%	5.6	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.7%	5.06	5.00	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	112	471	92	38	17	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.7%	4.92	4.86	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	109	461	93	37	17	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	3.6%	4.83	4.79	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	446	90	36	16	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	3.7%	4.81	4.81	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	100	424	85	35	16	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.8%	4.86	4.90	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	93	394	78	33	15	100%	5.8	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	3.9%	4.96	5.03	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	358	70	31	15	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	4.1%	5.11	5.20	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	66	279	52	23	10	100%	5.5	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.5%	4.95	4.89	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	75	317	62	26	11	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.81	4.75	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	87	367	74	30	13	100%	6.2	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.72	4.68	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	90	380	77	31	13	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.70	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	89	376	75	31	13	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.75	4.79	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	85	359	71	30	13	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	3.7%	4.84	4.91	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	78	329	64	29	13	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.9%	4.99	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	570	2407	476	200	86	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.6%	4.81	4.44	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	70	30	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	3.6%	4.81	4.44	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		81	81	334	1469	234	148	51	100%	4.1	15.9%	10.0%	5.9%	3.5%	4.53	4.93	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	880	140	88	31	100%	4.1	15.9%	10.0%	5.9%	3.5%	4.53	4.93	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 83 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.81 (+0.81)K% 21.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.41%	—	×0.810	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.16%	—	×1.100	6.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAReno Aces · 47 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.54 (+0.41)K% 18.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.26%	—	×0.860	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.39%	—	×0.900	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	5.02%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 75 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.10 (+1.15)K% 24.0% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.95%	—	×0.770	18.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×1.150	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷0.968	×1.250	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 111 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.36 (+0.92)K% 19.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.71%	—	×0.740	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.180	14.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Mariners · 18 IPFIP 4.78 → 6.28 (+1.50)K% 14.0% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.98%	—	×0.680	9.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.60%	—	×1.250	10.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.945	×1.400	4.78%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.78 → 6.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ashton Izzi (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.8%	—	4.90	19.4%	11.2%	371	-0.35	—	—	—
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.71	18.0%	10.2%	420	-0.03	4.32	541	87
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	84
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	84
Ryan Hawks R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	13.6%	7.3%	4.4%	.303	5.12	13.6%	4.3%	221	-0.14	4.78	342	84
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.26	13.8%	6.8%	376	-0.14	3.78	501	83
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	83
Michael Lorenzen R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	14.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.289	3.56	20.1%	12.0%	214	-1.02	3.17	1,181	83
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	82
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	82
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.49	19.8%	14.1%	408	-0.82	2.69	525	82
Andrew Hoffmann R 2023 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP	5.35	19.6%	10.8%	4.6%	.334	4.04	20.6%	10.6%	147	-1.31	3.17	422	82
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	81
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	81
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	81
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	81
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	81
Ramón Rosso R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	18.6%	8.9%	4.7%	.264	4.28	18.4%	4.3%	29	-0.93	2.13	333	81
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	113	19.2%	8.3%	1.46	4.99
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70