Ashton Izzi — OGILVIE

Ashton Izzi P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%17.6%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD3545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	100%	2.0	9.5%	10.8%	-1.2%	4.8%	8.35	6.28	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	100%	2.0	9.5%	10.8%	-1.2%	4.8%	8.35	6.28	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	100%	2.0	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	3.2%	8.35	5.12	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	14.6%	14.4%	0.1%	1.2%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	14.6%	14.4%	0.1%	1.2%	2.85	4.36	—
2024	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	100%	4.3	19.7%	12.2%	7.5%	0.8%	2.85	3.45	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	4.3%	4.80	5.10	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	18.4%	9.6%	8.8%	4.3%	4.80	5.10	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	100%	4.2	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	3.3%	4.80	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	26	26	122	524	105	34	21	100%	4.7	16.4%	6.6%	9.7%	4.6%	5.24	5.11	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	26	26	122	524	105	34	21	100%	4.7	16.4%	6.6%	9.7%	4.6%	5.24	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	ARI	17	17	83	341	73	21	12	100%	4.9	21.4%	6.2%	15.2%	3.5%	4.23	4.00	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	ARI	9	9	39	183	32	13	9	100%	4.3	17.5%	7.1%	10.4%	4.9%	7.38	5.22	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	11	46	8	6	1	100%	5.5	17.6%	12.2%	5.4%	3.1%	5.23	5.23	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	133	570	113	40	22	—	—	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.9%	5.24	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	136	573	110	63	17	100%	5.4	19.3%	10.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.99	4.90	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	139	587	119	60	18	100%	5.6	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.71	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	141	594	124	58	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.60	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	141	594	125	58	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.57	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	139	585	124	57	18	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	134	567	119	56	18	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	128	542	112	55	18	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.75	4.82	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	121	510	104	53	18	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.5%	4.90	5.00	-0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	475	95	51	18	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	3.7%	5.08	5.20	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	68	287	55	31	8	100%	5.2	19.3%	10.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.81	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	98	414	84	42	12	100%	5.4	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.71	4.62	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	115	486	101	48	14	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.51	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	123	519	110	50	15	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.48	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	125	528	111	52	15	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.51	4.51	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	124	524	110	52	16	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.60	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	119	502	104	51	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	113	477	97	50	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.89	-0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	107	452	90	49	16	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	3.5%	4.97	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	168	992	4190	864	426	126	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.30	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	86	25	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.67	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		79	79	326	1433	226	147	49	100%	4.1	15.8%	10.2%	5.6%	3.4%	4.50	4.93	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	879	139	90	30	100%	4.1	15.8%	10.2%	5.6%	3.4%	4.50	4.93	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ashton Izzi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	17.6%	12.2%	3.1%	—	4.73	20.2%	9.8%	415	-0.50	—	—	—
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	91
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	89
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	89
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	87
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	86
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	86
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	85
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	85
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	85
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	85
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	84
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	84
Jeff Thompson R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	84
Victor Alcántara R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	15.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.337	4.10	16.3%	5.6%	267	-0.30	3.50	464	84
Tanner Houck R 2018 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.85	2.27	733	84
Nick Pivetta R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	14.6%	11.6%	2.7%	.288	3.74	23.5%	15.3%	478	-1.09	1.37	1,583	84
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	572	84
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	84
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	132	20.3%	10.4%	1.22	4.82
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45