Ashton Izzi — OGILVIE

Ashton Izzi P Amarillo Sod Poodles

+0.3 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.0%

IP80

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	9	9	18	93	13	8	3	9.5%	10.8%	5.6%	8.35	6.76	-0.4
2024	20	A	Modesto Nuts	26	26	111	482	95	59	4	14.6%	14.4%	1.2%	2.85	4.37	+1.2
2025	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	18	18	75	334	80	28	11	18.4%	9.6%	4.3%	4.80	5.11	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	2	2	8	27	7	2	0	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	ARI	15	15	80	338	68	35	10	20.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	ARI	—	—	88	365	75	37	10	20.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.33	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	ARI	15	15	83	350	75	33	11	21.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.54	+0.6
2028	24	MLB	ARI	18	18	101	427	93	38	13	21.9%	8.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+1.0
2029	25	MLB	ARI	21	21	114	483	107	42	14	22.2%	8.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.34	+1.2
2030	26	MLB	ARI	22	22	121	513	115	44	15	22.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.31	+1.4
2031	27	MLB	ARI	23	23	124	526	118	45	16	22.5%	8.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.32	+1.4
2032	28	MLB	ARI	23	23	125	526	118	46	16	22.4%	8.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.35	+1.3
2033	29	MLB	ARI	22	22	122	514	115	45	16	22.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.37	4.40	+1.2
2034	30	MLB	ARI	21	21	118	499	110	44	16	22.1%	8.8%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	ARI	21	21	114	481	105	43	15	21.8%	9.0%	3.2%	4.49	4.53	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	ARI	20	20	109	462	100	42	15	21.6%	9.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.62	+0.8
2037	33	MLB	ARI	19	19	104	441	94	41	15	21.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.66	4.72	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	ARI	18	18	99	419	88	40	15	20.9%	9.5%	3.5%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2039	35	MLB	ARI	17	17	94	395	81	38	14	20.5%	9.7%	3.6%	4.87	4.95	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			55	55	212	936	148	114	25	15.8%	12.2%	2.7%	3.99	4.80	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—			52	52	200	883	140	108	24	15.8%	12.2%	2.7%	3.99	4.80	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ashton Izzi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	20.3%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.42	21.8%	12.9%	298	-0.34	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	93
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	93
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	92
David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	92
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	92
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	92
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	92
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	91
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	91
Shelby Lackey R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	91
Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	90
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	90
Derek True R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	89
Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	89
Jake Christianson R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.73	3.99	188	89
Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	89
Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	89
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	88
Cameron Foster R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	88
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.3	$12M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.2	$12M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$14M		$71M	+$58M