Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 7 | 30 | 116 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 1.6% | 2.73 | 3.03 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 7 | 7 | 30 | 116 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 31.9% | 6.9% | 25.0% | 1.7% | 2.73 | 2.29 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 502 | 120 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 3.77 | 4.94 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 502 | 120 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 125 | 561 | 133 | 58 | 20 | 96% | 4.5 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.53 | 5.72 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 125 | 561 | 133 | 58 | 20 | 96% | 4.5 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 5.53 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 15 | 77 | 359 | 77 | 35 | 9 | 52% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 6.08 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 15 | 77 | 359 | 77 | 35 | 9 | 52% | 2.7 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 6.08 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 69 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 9.8% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 54 | 241 | 69 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 19.1% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.03 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 20 | 0 | 25 | 124 | 23 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.5% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 6.84 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 79 | 46 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 79 | 46 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 111 | 487 | 102 | 63 | 14 | — | — | 21.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 98 | 413 | 102 | 63 | 14 | — | — | 24.8% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 5.62 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 136 | 0 | 143 | 604 | 136 | 74 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 132 | 0 | 139 | 586 | 131 | 71 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 130 | 0 | 136 | 574 | 129 | 71 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 126 | 0 | 132 | 557 | 124 | 67 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 356 | 0 | 378 | 1614 | 356 | 202 | 53 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.61 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 189 | 107 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 73 | 431 | 1903 | 382 | 198 | 70 | 47% | 2.8 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.74 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 34 | 200 | 884 | 177 | 92 | 32 | 47% | 2.8 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Hoffmann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.93 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 282 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 76 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 74 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 73 |
| Logan Taylor R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 73 |
| Sean Isaac R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 72 |
| Frankie Scalzo Jr. R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.17 | 17.2% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 237 | 72 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 72 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2025 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 72 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.45 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 62 | +0.90 | 4.27 | 279 | 71 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 23.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.53 | 13.7% | 3.1% | 41 | +0.03 | 4.50 | 119 | 71 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 71 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 71 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 70 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.61 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 183 | 70 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 70 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 70 |
| Trevor Martin R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 69 |
| Ben Sears R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 240 | 69 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.93 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 268 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 1.24 | 4.83 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |