Andrew Hoffmann

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	29	15	77	6.08	3.98	21.4%	9.7%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.29
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	0	54	3.81	3.03	28.6%	9.5%	1.0	K 25.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.42
2026	26	MIX3 levels	24	0	28	8.04	4.89	18.3%	14.8%	-0.1	K 17.3% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.69
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	98	0	103	4.91	5.00	21.6%	13.5%	-0.5
2028PROJ78% MLB	28	MLBARI	81	0	85	4.94	5.01	21.6%	13.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBARI	71	0	75	5.02	5.11	21.0%	12.9%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo50

K%37

xwOBA vs29

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Shawn Dubin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.91

FIP5.00

K%21.6%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	7	7	30	116	37	8	2	100%	4.2	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	1.9%	2.73	3.17	—
2021	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	7	7	30	116	37	8	2	100%	4.2	31.9%	6.9%	25.0%	1.7%	2.73	2.29	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	502	120	41	14	100%	5.0	18.6%	9.2%	9.5%	3.7%	3.77	4.74	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	502	120	41	14	100%	5.0	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.8%	3.77	3.64	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	125	561	133	58	20	96%	4.5	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	4.6%	5.53	5.35	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	125	561	133	58	20	96%	4.5	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.6%	5.53	4.44	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	77	359	77	35	9	52%	2.7	18.0%	9.1%	8.8%	2.8%	6.08	4.29	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	15	77	359	77	35	9	52%	2.7	18.0%	9.1%	8.8%	2.8%	6.08	4.29	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	15	77	359	77	35	9	52%	2.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	2.5%	6.08	3.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	69	23	5	0%	1.2	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.4%	3.81	3.42	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	241	69	23	5	0%	1.2	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.4%	3.81	3.42	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	241	69	23	5	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.1%	2.1%	3.81	3.03	+1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	28	142	26	21	3	0%	1.2	17.3%	14.2%	3.1%	2.3%	8.04	4.69	-0.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	28	142	26	21	3	0%	1.2	17.3%	14.2%	3.1%	2.3%	8.04	4.69	-0.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	28	142	26	21	3	0%	1.2	18.3%	14.8%	3.5%	2.1%	8.04	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	24	120	24	18	5	0%	1.2	20.0%	15.0%	5.0%	4.2%	6.85	6.10	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	98	0	103	435	94	59	13	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	3.0%	4.91	5.00	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	105	0	110	464	100	61	14	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	88	0	92	389	82	50	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.02	5.11	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	77	0	80	340	69	44	12	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.27	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	81	0	85	359	77	47	11	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	67	41	10	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.02	5.11	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	65	0	68	287	58	37	10	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		237	0	253	1087	227	144	36	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.20	4.84	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	860	180	114	29	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.20	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		158	73	434	1921	381	191	66	46%	2.7	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.4%	4.90	4.57	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	34	200	886	176	88	30	46%	2.7	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.4%	4.90	4.57	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 15 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.68 (+0.00)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.860	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.25%	—	×0.900	14.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 42 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.74 (+0.48)K% 31.7% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.860	27.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×0.900	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.904	×1.100	2.03%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 66 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.29 (+0.10)K% 20.9% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.89%	—	×0.860	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×0.900	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.85%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 6 IPFIP 0.71 → 1.79 (+1.08)K% 34.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.680	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.250	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.71 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.47 (+0.37)K% 15.0% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.810	12.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.920	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 87 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.44 (+1.13)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.31%	—	×0.810	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.100	12.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.872	×1.200	4.24%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 38 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.15 (+0.64)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.90%	—	×0.860	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×0.900	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	4.68%	÷0.942	×1.100	5.46%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Rome Braves · 80 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.32 (+1.22)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.39%	—	×0.770	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.62%	—	×1.150	7.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷0.928	×1.250	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Hoffmann (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.12	21.0%	8.0%	283	+0.12	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	74
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	74
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	70
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	69
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	69
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	69
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	68
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	67
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	67
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	67
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	67
Zak Kent R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.5%	14.0%	1.8%	.358	3.98	21.4%	11.7%	129	-0.06	3.13	385	67
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	67
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	67
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	67
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	113	21.2%	13.3%	1.24	5.09
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Bo Belinsky ('62-'70, -0 WAR*)	3.3	133	21.2%*	11.6%*	1.01*	4.96*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14