Ryan Gallagher
P
St. Paul Saints
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%20.3%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 122 | 509 | 133 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 4.07 | 4.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 122 | 509 | 133 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.1% | 5.9% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 17 | 16 | 70 | 320 | 72 | 37 | 14 | 94% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.43 | 5.69 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 135 | 594 | 128 | 53 | 23 | — | — | 21.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 5.43 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 3.97 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 130 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 134 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 135 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 145 | 611 | 133 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 140 | 593 | 128 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 121 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 112 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 118 | 497 | 103 | 36 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 109 | 459 | 93 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | 4.89 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 100 | 421 | 83 | 34 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 5.12 | 5.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 93 | 26 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 109 | 30 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 115 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 115 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 6.3% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 111 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 104 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 96 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 88 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | 4.90 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 79 | 32 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 5.13 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 184 | 1095 | 4624 | 977 | 306 | 167 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.14 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 56 | 31 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 40 | 192 | 829 | 166 | 73 | 35 | 98% | 4.7 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 4.82 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 865 | 174 | 76 | 36 | 98% | 4.7 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Gallagher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.19 | 21.5% | 15.5% | 439 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Connor Lunn R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | .310 | 4.50 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 212 | +0.92 | 3.58 | 332 | 88 |
| Matt Frisbee R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | .289 | 5.67 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 252 | +1.60 | 4.07 | 463 | 88 |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 17.4% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .294 | 4.11 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 242 | +0.16 | 3.93 | 983 | 87 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.49 | 3.73 | 540 | 86 |
| Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 85 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.46 | 20.0% | 12.2% | 108 | -0.24 | 3.62 | 222 | 85 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 85 |
| Kyle Wright R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .307 | 3.62 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 355 | -0.90 | 3.32 | 669 | 85 |
| Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.72 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 4.09 | 22.6% | 14.8% | 336 | +0.37 | 3.54 | 487 | 84 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.60 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.05 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.45 | 3.27 | 315 | 84 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 6.05 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.73 | 3.02 | 417 | 84 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .300 | 4.65 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 281 | +0.07 | 4.04 | 402 | 84 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .296 | 4.61 | 19.0% | 8.3% | 88 | +0.35 | 4.15 | 321 | 84 |
| Alex Faedo R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.39 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .293 | 4.60 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 438 | 84 |
| Tanner Gordon R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 18.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | .290 | 4.66 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 349 | +0.14 | 4.24 | 662 | 83 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .250 | 6.06 | 13.6% | 4.7% | 74 | +2.09 | 3.97 | 181 | 83 |
| Rhett Lowder R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.27 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.6% | .301 | 4.45 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 70 | +1.18 | 3.27 | 203 | 83 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 83 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.57 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .332 | 3.64 | 23.3% | 15.1% | 487 | -0.93 | 3.17 | 938 | 82 |
| Brian Howard R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.04 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.63 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 255 | +0.59 | 3.70 | 490 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 132 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 1.37 | 4.42 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |