Ryan Gallagher

P St. Paul Saints

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#346ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	122	4.07	3.47	26.1%	5.9%	—	K 20.5% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.36
2026	23	MIX2 levels	28	25	120	6.00	4.56	23.9%	10.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	2	2	14	4.87	4.87	20.7%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBMIN	12	12	68	4.78	4.75	21.2%	8.7%	0.5
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBMIN	16	16	98	4.72	4.70	21.5%	8.6%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$0.6M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 74%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Will Warren (age 24) · Justin Armbruester (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%20.7%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.07	4.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.07	4.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	26.1%	5.9%	20.2%	3.3%	4.07	3.47	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	120	536	128	57	20	89%	4.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.5%	4.1%	6.00	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	120	536	128	57	20	89%	4.3	20.4%	9.8%	10.5%	4.1%	6.00	4.90	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	120	536	128	57	20	89%	4.3	23.9%	10.6%	13.2%	3.7%	6.00	4.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	2	2	14	59	12	5	2	100%	7.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.7%	4.87	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	142	598	127	52	21	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.7%	12.6%	3.6%	4.77	4.74	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	142	598	129	51	21	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.5%	4.71	4.69	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	119	503	108	43	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.6%	4.69	4.70	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	116	491	105	43	18	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.6%	4.74	4.77	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	108	456	96	41	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.8%	4.84	4.91	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	98	414	86	38	17	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	4.0%	4.99	5.08	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	88	370	76	35	16	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	4.2%	5.17	5.28	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	68	287	61	25	10	100%	5.7	21.2%	8.7%	12.6%	3.6%	4.78	4.75	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	98	414	89	35	15	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.70	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	94	397	85	34	14	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	3.6%	4.70	4.71	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	99	418	89	36	15	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.7%	4.75	4.78	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	95	401	85	36	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.8%	4.85	4.92	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	89	376	78	35	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	4.0%	5.00	5.09	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	81	342	70	33	14	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	4.2%	5.18	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	624	2636	557	234	99	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.8%	4.85	4.51	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	75	32	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	3.8%	4.85	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		52	49	242	1045	213	86	42	94%	4.6	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.0%	5.03	4.64	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	865	177	72	35	94%	4.6	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	4.0%	5.03	4.64	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 102 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.99 (+0.35)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.43%	—	×0.860	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×0.900	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 18 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.33 (+0.84)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.810	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.100	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 73 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.90 (+0.87)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.62%	—	×0.770	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.39%	—	×1.150	6.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.106	×1.250	3.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 49 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.99 (+0.90)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.64%	—	×0.810	18.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.60%	—	×1.100	7.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.986	×1.200	4.59%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Gallagher (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.71	21.4%	12.8%	402	-0.16	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	89
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	89
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	86
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	85
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	85
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	85
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	84
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	84
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	83
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	83
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	83
Osmer Morales R 2017 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	18.9%	10.1%	4.4%	.294	5.33	16.9%	4.5%	102	+0.11	3.14	429	83
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	83
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	83
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	83
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	82
Tanner Gordon R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	20.8%	8.0%	4.3%	.330	4.56	17.3%	12.0%	363	-0.16	4.10	715	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	119	21.1%	8.9%	1.43	4.83
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86