Ryan Gallagher — OGILVIE

Ryan Gallagher P St. Paul Saints

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION116 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%20.3%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL6055

CMD6060

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$31M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.07	4.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	3.9%	4.07	4.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	122	509	133	30	17	100%	5.1	26.1%	5.9%	20.2%	3.3%	4.07	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	25	116	519	125	55	20	93%	4.3	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	4.3%	6.13	5.01	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	25	116	519	125	55	20	93%	4.3	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	4.3%	6.13	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	MIN	4	4	18	75	20	7	2	100%	4.5	26.7%	9.3%	17.3%	2.7%	3.50	3.49	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	MIN	23	21	98	444	105	48	18	91%	4.3	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	4.1%	6.61	4.70	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	13	54	11	3	2	100%	6.4	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	MIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	129	573	136	58	22	—	—	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.8%	5.95	4.94	-0.1
FULL	23	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	20.3%	5.8%	14.5%	3.4%	4.35	3.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	161	681	144	39	22	100%	5.6	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	3.3%	4.27	4.23	+1.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	30	30	175	739	159	43	24	100%	5.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.3%	4.22	4.18	+1.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	175	739	161	43	24	100%	6.0	21.8%	5.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.18	4.16	+1.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	728	159	44	24	100%	5.9	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	3.3%	4.19	4.20	+1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	728	158	45	25	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.4%	4.25	4.28	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	165	695	149	44	25	100%	6.1	21.4%	6.3%	15.1%	3.5%	4.35	4.42	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	26	26	155	653	138	43	24	100%	5.9	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	3.7%	4.50	4.59	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	144	609	126	43	24	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.0%	4.68	4.79	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	134	564	114	42	24	100%	6.1	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	4.2%	4.88	5.02	-0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	122	517	102	41	23	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	4.5%	5.11	5.27	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	78	329	70	19	11	100%	5.6	21.1%	5.8%	15.3%	3.3%	4.28	4.24	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	121	511	110	30	17	100%	5.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.3%	4.23	4.19	+1.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	142	600	131	35	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	5.9%	15.9%	3.3%	4.19	4.17	+1.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	149	629	137	38	21	100%	6.0	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	3.3%	4.20	4.21	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	154	650	141	40	22	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.4%	4.26	4.29	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	150	633	136	40	22	100%	6.0	21.4%	6.3%	15.1%	3.6%	4.36	4.43	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	143	604	127	40	23	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.7%	14.4%	3.8%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	135	570	118	40	23	100%	6.1	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.0%	4.69	4.80	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	127	536	108	40	23	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	4.2%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	116	490	97	38	22	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	4.5%	5.12	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	221	1316	5557	1175	360	203	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.5%	14.7%	3.6%	4.46	4.14	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	55	31	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.5%	14.7%	3.6%	4.46	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		51	49	238	1028	208	85	42	96%	4.7	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	4.1%	5.07	4.69	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	865	175	71	35	96%	4.7	20.2%	8.2%	12.0%	4.1%	5.07	4.69	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Gallagher (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	20.3%	5.8%	3.4%	—	4.19	21.5%	15.7%	511	-0.15	—	—	—
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	89
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	89
Chad Kuhl R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	17.4%	5.7%	2.8%	.294	4.22	21.2%	11.9%	242	+0.30	3.92	983	86
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	86
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	85
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	85
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	85
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.68	18.3%	11.7%	349	+0.33	3.83	709	84
Hayden Wesneski R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.17	22.4%	14.7%	336	+0.38	3.18	546	84
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	84
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	83
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	83
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	83
Justin Dunn R 2019 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	23.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.306	5.59	19.1%	5.4%	156	+1.49	3.54	607	82
Brian Howard R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP	4.11	19.3%	7.0%	3.2%	.269	4.55	17.4%	9.2%	255	+0.44	3.67	490	82
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	82
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	81
Mike Foltynewicz R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	20.7%	8.8%	4.0%	.332	3.67	23.3%	15.1%	487	-1.02	3.17	938	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	156	21.1%	6.4%	1.38	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75