Ryan Gallagher
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+1.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.9 · 2029
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%13.8%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 24 | 24 | 122 | 509 | 133 | 30 | 17 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.07 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 3 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 2.63 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 109 | 40 | 17 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 134 | 562 | 123 | 46 | 18 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 130 | 44 | 19 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 145 | 48 | 21 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 153 | 50 | 22 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 156 | 51 | 22 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 155 | 51 | 22 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 151 | 51 | 22 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 145 | 50 | 22 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 138 | 49 | 22 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 131 | 48 | 21 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 124 | 47 | 21 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 115 | 45 | 20 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 107 | 44 | 20 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 98 | 42 | 19 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 135 | 564 | 116 | 40 | 21 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.92 | 4.31 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 833 | 171 | 59 | 31 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.92 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Gallagher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | — | 4.31 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 451 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.13 | 22.6% | 14.8% | 336 | +0.36 | 3.55 | 487 | 93 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 93 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 92 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 92 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 91 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.60 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.18 | 2.60 | 155 | 91 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 90 |
| James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 90 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 90 |
| Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 89 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 89 |
| Martin Agosta R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 89 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | .280 | 5.07 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 45 | +0.41 | 4.46 | 158 | 89 |
| Alex Faedo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.54 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 438 | 89 |
| Brett Conine R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.21 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .290 | 5.79 | 15.4% | 4.9% | 205 | +2.58 | 3.21 | 319 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 88 |
| Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 88 |
| Connor Lunn R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.67 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.66 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 212 | +0.99 | 3.67 | 332 | 88 |
| Brett Kerry R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.69 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | .343 | 5.76 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 394 | +1.07 | 4.69 | 512 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.7 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.5 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.4 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $19M | $96M | +$76M | ||