Tyce Armstrong

2B Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 R/R A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1959ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	23	ANYY	86	.310/.417/.634	6	2	115	—	.240/.321/.493
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBNYY	200	.220/.288/.373	6	4	85	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBNYY	31	.223/.292/.383	1	1	87	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	71	.224/.293/.385	2	1	87	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%83

Z-Con%71

Max EV70

BB%69

Whiff%69

Speed59

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDevin Mann (age 24) · Braxton Fulford (age 24) · Andrew Young (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .286 / .370

PA59

HR2

K%30

BB%8

ISO153

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	71	22	5	0	6	13	20	0	2	0	310	417	634	1.050	324	340	23	15	441	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	75	18	4	0	5	9	27	0	2	0	240	321	493	815	253	278	31	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	75	18	4	0	5	9	27	0	2	0	240	321	493	815	253	289	31	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	71	22	5	0	6	13	20	0	2	0	310	417	634	1.050	324	340	23	15	441	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	77	18	4	0	5	9	27	0	2	0	234	321	481	802	247	278	31	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	86	77	18	4	0	5	9	27	0	2	0	234	321	481	802	247	278	31	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	200	181	39	7	1	6	16	60	1	4	1	220	288	373	661	153	290	30	8	294	85	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	30%	102	92	21	4	1	3	8	30	1	2	0	222	290	375	665	153	291	29	8	296	87	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	44%	161	146	33	6	1	5	13	47	1	3	1	223	291	376	668	154	290	29	8	297	87	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	49%	205	185	41	8	1	6	17	60	1	4	1	223	292	375	667	153	290	29	8	297	87	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	51%	239	215	48	9	1	7	20	69	2	4	1	222	291	372	664	150	289	29	8	296	86	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	51%	255	230	51	10	1	7	21	74	2	4	1	221	290	368	658	147	287	29	8	294	85	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	30%	31	28	6	1	0	1	3	9	0	1	0	223	292	383	675	160	291	29	10	300	87	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	44%	71	65	14	3	0	2	6	21	0	1	0	224	293	385	678	160	291	30	8	301	87	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	49%	100	91	20	4	0	3	8	29	1	2	1	224	294	383	677	159	290	29	8	301	87	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	51%	123	111	26	5	1	4	10	36	1	2	1	224	293	380	673	157	289	29	8	299	86	-2	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	51%	131	118	27	5	1	4	11	38	1	2	1	222	291	376	667	153	288	29	8	297	85	-2	+0	-1	+0	+3	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	456	413	93	18	2	14	38	133	3	8	3	225	295	380	675	155	295	29	8	299	88	-7	+0	-1	+2	+10	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	133	26	3	20	54	190	4	11	4	226	295	382	677	156	296	29	8	299	88	-11	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1107	997	223	43	5	35	93	325	7	20	4	224	294	382	677	158	292	29	8	299	88	-17	+2	-2	+4	+22	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	131	25	3	21	55	191	4	12	2	224	295	385	680	161	292	29	8	299	88	-11	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 86 PAwOBA .439 → .338 (−101)K% 23.3% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.26%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	31.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.12%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.990	18.66%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.990	7.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	9.32%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .439 → .338; ISO .324 → .250; BABIP .340 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
/162	664	5	14	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#3Chris Woodward'99-'11 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,896 PA	2.9	1,896	33	9	230*	288*	354*	+9	+15	1.1	2.4
/162	664	12	3	+3.1	+5.4	0.4	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Branson'92-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,720 PA	2.6	1,720	34	9	236*	291*	373*	+9	-3	0.8	1.8
/162	664	13	3	+3.4	-1.1	0.3	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	515	15	9	223	288	374	+2	+3	0.8	0.8
/162	664	20	12	+2.4	+3.9	1.1	pk7: 1
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyce Armstrong (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	218/286/370	151	290	2	1	30%	8%	85	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→45	49→50	44→45	46	224/292/371	148	289	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.4	217/297/370	153	284	16	5	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/299/370	157	281	17	4	29%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Braxton Fulford 2023 · A	24	44→41	47→50	52→50	44	216/299/348	131	298	14	10	31%	8%	85	+0.2	213/288/349	136	291	14	10	30%	7%	82	-0.0	207/283/351	144	282	15	9	30%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Andrew Young 2018 · A	24	45→46	49→55	50→40	40	226/292/373	147	297	16	7	29%	5%	88	+0.5	226/303/391	165	279	20	5	26%	6%	97	+1.1	219/301/403	184	282	23	3	30%	6%	96	+0.8
✕Nick Cimillo 2024 · A	24	42→37	49→55	47→40	45	211/291/359	149	291	16	5	32%	9%	84	+0.2	206/277/378	172	264	21	5	29%	8%	84	+0.1	191/263/365	174	240	22	3	30%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	46→45	48→50	42	221/284/348	127	282	13	11	26%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/327	117	265	13	7	25%	5%	67	-1.1	194/247/303	110	239	13	5	25%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Jaxx Groshans 2022 · A	24	46	47→50	47→30	46	228/292/362	134	300	15	4	28%	8%	84	+0.2	198/263/320	122	284	13	5	33%	8%	65	-1.2	121/197/239	117	168	13	0	36%	8%	20	-1.5
✕Christian Koss 2022 · A	24	42→47	47→45	50	39	217/262/353	136	281	15	9	29%	5%	72	-0.7	224/268/346	122	299	12	14	28%	4%	72	-0.7	246/294/365	119	307	12	15	23%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Alex Isola 2022 · A	24	39→44	50	47→40	46	205/273/349	143	260	19	4	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/284/350	133	273	16	4	26%	8%	79	-0.2	209/277/330	121	257	15	4	24%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→47	46→45	49→50	43	195/275/324	129	258	13	9	29%	7%	71	-0.8	216/290/343	127	275	12	9	25%	7%	80	-0.1	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	38→40	47→60	48→45	42	198/263/331	133	270	14	9	32%	7%	68	-1.0	210/285/377	167	290	20	5	33%	8%	86	+0.3	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Jesús Bastidas 2023 · AA	24	42	49→50	45→50	41	213/282/354	140	287	17	12	31%	7%	80	-0.1	210/279/347	137	276	16	12	29%	6%	77	-0.3	202/274/337	135	264	15	13	29%	6%	70	-0.8
✕Tim Tawa 2023 · AA	24	43→45	45→55	49→50	47	215/282/334	119	268	14	12	25%	8%	75	-0.5	214/278/349	135	274	16	11	27%	8%	77	-0.3	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2024 · AA	24	41→51	51→55	50→55	41	213/274/368	155	292	20	18	33%	7%	80	-0.2	227/265/382	155	285	19	12	27%	4%	80	-0.2	228/259/382	154	275	20	9	25%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Kyle Martin 2009 · A	24	42	49→55	45	40	217/260/363	146	268	17	5	26%	5%	73	-0.6	203/256/307	104	268	9	7	27%	6%	59	-1.7	143/201/202	59	189	3	6	25%	5%	15	-1.2
✕Brandon Meredith 2014 · A	24	43→39	49→50	46→45	47	218/299/372	154	287	16	8	29%	9%	90	+0.6	209/283/347	138	275	16	7	28%	8%	78	-0.3	191/266/325	134	242	17	5	28%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Tyler Marlette 2017 · AA	24	45→43	48→50	45	40	228/271/371	143	292	16	6	28%	5%	79	-0.2	218/267/341	123	287	13	5	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/262/326	116	274	13	3	27%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Tommy Field 2011 · A	24	47→50	45	50→45	44	228/300/351	123	298	12	10	26%	7%	86	+0.3	229/294/350	121	293	12	8	25%	7%	83	+0.1	223/292/352	129	279	13	7	24%	7%	81	-0.0

Tyce Armstrong

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps