Nick Cimillo
C Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+PIT | 408 | .260/.376/.500 | 21 | 3 | 87 | — | .208/.290/.401 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAPIT | 455 | .239/.322/.474 | 20 | 5 | 73 | — | .198/.260/.386 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/APIT | 393 | .217/.320/.432 | 17 | 2 | 59 | — | .174/.253/.328 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBPIT | 16 | .203/.273/.367 | 1 | 0 | 81 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 28 | MLBPIT | 83 | .204/.273/.364 | 3 | 0 | 80 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 117 | .203/.273/.360 | 3 | 0 | 79 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 22 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 409 | 188 | 597 | 273 | 23 | 14 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 78 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 256 | 294 | 551 | 147 | 171 | 31 | 12 | 256 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 197 | 163 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 288 | 408 | 546 | 954 | 258 | 345 | 22 | 15 | 416 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 185 | 161 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 324 | 366 | 691 | 143 | 256 | 17 | 12 | 315 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 223 | 181 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 17 | 38 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 293 | 419 | 619 | 1.038 | 326 | 333 | 26 | 17 | 444 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 401 | 96 | 26 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 97 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 239 | 322 | 474 | 796 | 234 | 264 | 21 | 10 | 346 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 378 | 322 | 69 | 19 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 110 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 320 | 429 | 748 | 214 | 262 | 29 | 12 | 329 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 500 | 833 | 214 | 375 | 33 | 7 | 366 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 364 | 176 | 540 | 251 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 78 | 72 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 179 | 208 | 388 | 97 | 133 | 40 | 6 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 197 | 172 | 40 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 327 | 424 | 751 | 192 | 301 | 28 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 185 | 168 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 270 | 327 | 598 | 131 | 235 | 22 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 223 | 197 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 72 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 306 | 462 | 768 | 244 | 262 | 32 | 10 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 415 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 198 | 260 | 386 | 646 | 188 | 230 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 378 | 336 | 58 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 32 | 132 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 253 | 324 | 577 | 152 | 229 | 35 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 429 | 695 | 214 | 322 | 47 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 364 | 176 | 540 | 300 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 22 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 409 | 188 | 597 | 273 | 23 | 14 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 244 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 88 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 281 | 357 | 638 | 164 | 262 | 32 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 231 | 57 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 365 | 472 | 837 | 225 | 299 | 24 | 14 | 370 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 365 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 38 | 113 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 290 | 392 | 682 | 184 | 250 | 28 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 408 | 342 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 60 | 89 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 260 | 376 | 500 | 876 | 240 | 292 | 22 | 15 | 385 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 415 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 198 | 260 | 386 | 646 | 188 | 235 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 401 | 96 | 26 | 4 | 20 | 44 | 97 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 239 | 322 | 474 | 796 | 234 | 264 | 21 | 10 | 346 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 350 | 62 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 139 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 177 | 256 | 331 | 587 | 154 | 244 | 35 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 336 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 47 | 115 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 320 | 432 | 752 | 214 | 267 | 29 | 12 | 330 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 364 | 176 | 540 | 251 | 32 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 243 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 88 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 281 | 358 | 639 | 165 | 253 | 32 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 363 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 38 | 113 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 290 | 394 | 684 | 185 | 250 | 28 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 417 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 260 | 384 | 644 | 187 | 230 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 353 | 62 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 139 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 256 | 329 | 584 | 153 | 233 | 35 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 408 | 363 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 38 | 113 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 290 | 394 | 684 | 185 | 250 | 28 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 455 | 417 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 125 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 260 | 384 | 644 | 187 | 230 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 353 | 62 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 139 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 256 | 329 | 584 | 153 | 233 | 35 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 10% | 380 | 344 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 125 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 274 | 375 | 649 | 170 | 275 | 33 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 273 | 367 | 640 | 164 | 277 | 31 | 6 | 285 | 81 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 38% | 222 | 201 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 275 | 372 | 646 | 167 | 275 | 32 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 49% | 240 | 217 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 274 | 367 | 641 | 163 | 274 | 32 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 38% | 83 | 76 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 273 | 364 | 638 | 161 | 276 | 33 | 7 | 284 | 80 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 49% | 117 | 106 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 273 | 360 | 633 | 157 | 276 | 32 | 8 | 282 | 79 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 200 | 182 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 266 | 346 | 612 | 148 | 268 | 32 | 8 | 283 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 117 | 29 | 0 | 20 | 49 | 211 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 266 | 348 | 614 | 150 | 266 | 32 | 8 | 283 | 75 | -16 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2170 | 1950 | 384 | 92 | 9 | 74 | 176 | 673 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 197 | 272 | 367 | 639 | 170 | 255 | 31 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +11 | +13 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 116 | 28 | 3 | 22 | 53 | 202 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 274 | 370 | 644 | 171 | 258 | 31 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 378 PAwOBA .325 → .256 (−69)K% 29.1% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 14.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.38% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .325 → .256; ISO .214 → .159; BABIP .262 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ABradenton Marauders · 15 PAwOBA .356 → .247 (−109)K% 33.3% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 29.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 8.53% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .356 → .247; ISO .214 → .138; BABIP .375 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 455 PAwOBA .340 → .276 (−63)K% 21.3% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.32% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.13% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 13.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.58% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .340 → .276; ISO .234 → .194; BABIP .264 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 223 PAwOBA .434 → .327 (−107)K% 25.6% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.029 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.04% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.024 | ×0.870 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 18.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 5.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.71% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 10.78% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .434 → .327; ISO .326 → .260; BABIP .333 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 185 PAwOBA .307 → .260 (−46)K% 17.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.30% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.05% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 15.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .307 → .260; ISO .143 → .128; BABIP .256 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 197 PAwOBA .407 → .325 (−82)K% 21.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.83% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.72% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 10.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.990 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.990 | 11.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.990 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 5.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .407 → .325; ISO .258 → .207; BABIP .345 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 78 PAwOBA .250 → .167 (−82)K% 30.8% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 40.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 11.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.98% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .250 → .167; ISO .147 → .098; BABIP .171 → .133. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ABradenton Marauders · 22 PAwOBA .313 → .249 (−63)K% 22.7% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.64% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 10.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | — | — | 25.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .313 → .249; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).