René Pinto

C Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 R/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	341	.193/.260/.354	13	0	37	—	.150/.202/.266
2024	27	MLBTB	49	.214/.298/.429	2	0	97	0.7
2025	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	292	.256/.307/.496	14	2	67	—	.201/.239/.372
2026	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	98	.148/.211/.318	3	0	21	—	.119/.148/.220
2027PROJ10% MLB	30	MLBPHI	12	.215/.269/.381	0	0	78	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	31	MLBPHI	30	.211/.264/.371	1	0	73	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Bat Spd81

Barrel%79

Avg EV73

xwOBA38

Speed10

CompsAnthony Recker (age 30) · Cameron Rupp (age 30) · Eric Haase (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .269 / .381

PA12

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP281

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.217

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.6

Avg EV

7390.7

Bat Spd

8174.6

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1024.6

Platoon Splits2024 · 49 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

157

▶▶R

wOBA

234

400

▶▶R

ISO

167

278

▶▶R

BABIP

333

286

◀L

56.0%

16.7%

▶▶R

BB%

4.0%

12.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	VSL Rays	—	159	146	38	9	0	1	10	25	2	4	0	260	316	342	659	82	306	16	6	298	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	VSL Rays	—	227	201	65	14	7	6	17	29	4	5	4	323	387	552	940	229	345	13	7	401	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	161	149	39	9	0	8	7	38	3	0	0	262	308	483	791	221	295	24	4	343	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	1	200	273	250	523	50	250	18	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	293	269	76	16	2	2	17	41	3	1	0	283	332	379	711	97	322	14	6	316	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	ROK	GCL Rays	—	17	14	6	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	429	529	714	1.244	286	417	6	18	534	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	280	246	74	21	1	1	23	43	1	1	1	301	363	407	769	106	348	15	8	334	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	58	53	11	2	0	2	4	9	0	0	0	208	263	358	622	151	214	16	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	287	260	61	16	0	5	22	68	4	1	2	235	304	354	658	119	298	24	8	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	211	201	60	11	0	12	7	58	2	2	1	299	329	532	861	234	364	27	3	374	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	171	153	37	9	0	8	15	56	3	2	1	242	322	458	779	216	326	33	9	345	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	29	26	9	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	346	414	462	875	115	421	21	10	394	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	83	80	17	3	0	2	2	35	1	0	0	212	241	325	566	113	349	42	2	253	57	-4	+0	+1	+7	+2	0.7
2022	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	306	282	75	26	2	14	22	82	1	1	0	266	321	521	843	255	326	27	7	365	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	28	24	5	0	0	0	4	10	0	1	0	208	321	208	530		357	36	14	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	105	103	26	3	0	6	2	34	0	0	0	252	267	456	723	204	317	32	2	315	100	+0	+0	+2	+7	+2	1.1
2023	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	160	146	37	12	0	9	10	46	2	1	0	253	310	521	831	267	301	29	6	357	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	104	93	23	7	0	4	5	29	2	0	0	247	300	452	752	204	297	28	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	49	42	9	3	0	2	4	18	1	0	0	214	298	429	726	214	304	37	8	309	97	-0	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.7
2024	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	230	209	40	5	0	11	16	84	3	0	0	191	259	373	632	182	250	37	7	280	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	111	102	20	6	0	2	7	33	2	0	0	196	261	314	575	118	269	30	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	253	233	61	20	0	12	18	80	0	2	0	262	315	502	817	240	343	32	7	354	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	39	37	8	1	1	2	1	14	1	0	0	216	256	459	716	243	286	36	3	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	63	58	8	4	0	1	2	25	1	0	0	138	180	259	439	121	212	40	3	191	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	35	30	5	2	0	2	1	10	3	0	0	167	265	433	698	267	158	29	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	237	225	52	9	0	10	8	87	2	0	0	231	264	404	668	173	326	37	3	292	84	-5	+0	+2	+21	+5	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	159	149	24	5	0	0	7	31	2	4	0	161	209	195	403	34	201	19	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	227	206	40	8	4	3	12	35	4	5	4	194	252	316	568	121	209	15	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	161	151	28	6	0	6	5	54	3	0	0	185	226	344	571	159	222	34	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	293	274	68	12	2	2	12	57	3	1	0	248	287	328	616	80	293	19	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	17	15	5	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	333	412	600	1.012	267	322	6	12	401	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	280	252	67	20	1	1	17	62	1	1	1	266	315	365	680	99	318	22	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	287	266	52	13	0	4	16	84	4	1	2	195	252	289	541	94	268	29	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	211	203	51	8	0	8	5	68	2	2	1	251	276	409	685	158	329	32	2	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	171	158	28	6	0	6	10	70	3	2	1	177	240	329	569	152	272	41	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	83	80	17	3	0	2	2	35	1	0	0	212	241	325	566	113	349	42	2	253	57	-4	+0	+1	+7	+2	0.7
2022	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	306	290	60	19	2	9	14	99	1	1	0	207	246	379	625	172	272	32	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	105	103	26	3	0	6	2	34	0	0	0	252	267	456	723	204	317	32	2	317	100	+0	+0	+2	+7	+2	1.1
2023	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	160	149	28	9	0	5	7	55	2	1	0	188	234	349	583	161	242	34	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	49	42	9	3	0	2	4	18	1	0	0	214	298	429	726	214	304	37	8	312	97	-0	+0	-1	+7	+1	0.7
2024	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	230	214	32	4	0	7	11	99	3	0	0	150	202	266	468	117	220	43	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	253	239	48	14	0	9	12	97	0	2	0	201	239	372	611	172	283	38	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	63	59	7	3	0	1	1	30	1	0	0	119	148	220	368	102	178	48	2	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	159	149	24	5	0	0	7	31	2	4	0	161	209	195	403	34	202	19	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	VSL Rays	—	159	146	38	9	0	1	10	25	2	4	0	260	316	342	659	82	306	16	6	298	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	227	206	40	8	4	3	12	35	4	5	4	194	252	316	568	121	214	15	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	VSL Rays	—	227	201	65	14	7	6	17	29	4	5	4	323	387	552	940	229	345	13	7	401	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	183	173	31	6	0	7	5	61	3	0	1	179	215	335	551	156	224	33	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	183	169	43	10	0	8	9	42	3	0	1	254	304	456	759	201	289	23	5	331	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	310	289	72	13	2	2	14	59	3	1	0	249	291	329	620	80	302	19	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	310	283	82	17	2	3	20	42	3	1	0	290	343	396	739	106	326	14	6	328	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	338	305	81	24	1	1	21	75	1	1	1	266	315	361	676	95	338	22	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	338	299	85	23	1	3	27	52	1	1	1	284	346	398	744	114	325	15	8	324	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	287	266	52	13	0	4	16	84	4	1	2	195	252	289	541	94	268	29	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	287	260	61	16	0	5	22	68	4	1	2	235	304	354	658	119	298	24	8	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	411	389	85	16	0	15	16	149	5	4	2	219	259	375	634	157	310	36	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	411	380	106	20	0	21	25	120	5	4	2	279	332	497	829	218	354	29	6	363	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	417	397	82	24	2	12	17	143	2	2	0	207	243	368	611	161	288	34	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	417	386	97	29	2	16	28	127	2	2	0	251	305	461	766	210	332	30	7	336	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	369	347	75	17	0	16	12	124	4	1	0	216	251	403	654	187	277	34	3	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	369	342	86	22	0	19	17	109	4	1	0	251	295	482	777	231	305	30	5	334	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	390	359	57	10	0	12	21	164	6	0	0	159	218	287	505	128	242	42	5	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	390	353	69	14	0	15	27	135	6	0	0	195	264	363	627	167	262	35	7	279	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	292	275	55	16	0	11	14	112	1	2	0	200	241	378	620	178	286	38	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	292	270	69	21	1	14	19	94	1	2	0	256	307	496	803	241	335	32	7	348	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	98	89	10	5	0	1	2	47	4	0	0	112	168	202	371	90	209	48	2	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	98	88	13	6	0	3	3	35	4	0	0	148	211	318	529	170	192	36	3	231	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	159	149	24	5	0	0	7	31	2	4	0	161	209	195	403	34	201	19	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	227	209	40	8	4	3	12	35	4	5	4	191	252	311	563	120	209	15	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	183	173	31	6	0	7	5	61	3	0	1	179	215	335	551	156	222	33	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	310	290	72	13	2	2	14	59	3	1	0	248	291	328	618	79	295	19	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	338	313	81	24	1	1	21	75	1	1	1	259	315	351	666	93	318	22	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	287	265	52	13	0	4	16	84	4	1	2	196	252	291	542	94	268	29	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	411	387	85	16	0	15	16	149	5	4	2	220	259	377	636	158	303	36	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	417	395	82	24	2	12	17	143	2	2	0	208	243	370	612	162	288	34	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	369	350	75	17	0	16	12	124	4	1	0	214	251	400	651	186	272	34	3	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	390	360	57	10	0	12	21	164	6	0	0	158	218	286	504	128	235	42	5	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	292	275	55	16	0	11	14	112	1	2	0	200	241	378	620	178	283	38	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	98	92	10	5	0	1	2	47	4	0	0	109	168	196	364	87	178	48	2	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	390	360	57	10	0	12	21	164	6	0	0	158	218	286	504	128	235	42	5	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	292	275	55	16	0	11	14	112	1	2	0	200	241	378	620	178	283	38	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	98	92	10	5	0	1	2	47	4	0	0	109	168	196	364	87	178	48	2	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10%	200	184	40	9	1	7	12	63	2	2	0	213	267	372	639	160	281	32	6	283	78	-5	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	12	11	2	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	215	269	381	650	166	281	33	8	287	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	27%	111	103	21	5	0	3	6	35	1	0	0	209	262	363	625	154	277	32	5	277	73	-4	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	27%	30	28	6	1	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	211	264	371	635	160	278	33	7	281	73	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	267	253	58	10	0	11	10	97	2	0	0	229	264	399	663	170	322	36	4	291	59	-5	+0	+1	+22	+6	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	616	141	24	0	27	24	236	5	0	0	229	263	399	663	170	321	36	4	291	59	-13	+0	+3	+52	+14	5.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3716	3462	709	167	9	91	170	1158	41	22	10	205	250	337	588	132	275	31	5	256	59	-11	+0	-1	+25	+10	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	606	124	29	2	16	30	203	7	4	2	205	251	338	589	134	274	31	5	256	59	-16	+0	-2	+35	+14	3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 63 PAwOBA .189 → .142 (−47)K% 39.7% → 47.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	47.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.17%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	2.13%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.45%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.972	8.22%
Doubles /BIP	12.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.972	9.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .189 → .142; ISO .121 → .085; BABIP .212 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 253 PAwOBA .346 → .262 (−84)K% 31.6% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.62%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	38.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.11%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.95%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.999	×0.982	17.17%
Doubles /BIP	13.07%	÷1.098	×0.830	×0.999	×0.982	9.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.970	×0.999	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.84%	÷0.847	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .346 → .262; ISO .240 → .177; BABIP .343 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 230 PAwOBA .275 → .203 (−71)K% 36.5% → 43.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.52%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	43.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.96%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.91%
HBP% /PA	1.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.22%
Singles /BIP	19.20%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.992	×0.992	17.83%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.992	×0.992	3.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.992	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.80%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .275 → .203; ISO .182 → .115; BABIP .250 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 160 PAwOBA .351 → .253 (−97)K% 28.7% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.75%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	34.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.28%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.18%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.006	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	14.09%
Doubles /BIP	12.00%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	9.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.00%	÷1.137	×0.700	—	×1.003	5.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .253; ISO .267 → .172; BABIP .301 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 306 PAwOBA .355 → .267 (−88)K% 26.8% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.80%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	32.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.86%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.55%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.31%
Singles /BIP	16.50%	÷0.988	×0.930	×0.975	×1.018	15.41%
Doubles /BIP	13.00%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.975	×1.018	9.81%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.975	×1.018	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	7.00%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .355 → .267; ISO .255 → .177; BABIP .326 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 211 PAwOBA .365 → .290 (−74)K% 27.5% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.49%	÷1.029	×1.200	—	—	32.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.32%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.033	2.33%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.92%
Singles /BIP	25.87%	÷0.945	×0.930	×0.962	×1.033	25.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.067	×0.830	×0.962	×1.033	5.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.962	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.39%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.73%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .365 → .290; ISO .234 → .157; BABIP .364 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 171 PAwOBA .335 → .251 (−85)K% 32.7% → 41.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.75%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	41.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.77%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×0.998	5.95%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.49%
Singles /BIP	20.62%	÷1.019	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	18.04%
Doubles /BIP	9.28%	÷1.046	×0.870	×0.950	×0.998	7.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.950	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.25%	÷0.938	×0.780	—	×0.998	6.85%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 90, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .335 → .251; ISO .216 → .160; BABIP .326 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 287 PAwOBA .291 → .242 (−49)K% 23.7% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.69%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	29.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.67%	÷0.963	×0.680	—	×1.027	5.56%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.20%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.028	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	7.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.60%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.33%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .291 → .242; ISO .119 → .100; BABIP .298 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#3Brian Johnson'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	49	1	237*	279*	395*	+26	-0	3.5	3.7
/162	664	21	0	+11.1	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Todd Greene'96-'06 * career totals — 11 seasons, 1,657 PA	2.5	1,657	71	5	241*	275*	428*	+8	-2	1.9	2.9
/162	664	28	2	+3.0	-0.8	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Jeff Newman'76-'84 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,290 PA	3.4	2,290	63	7	219*	263*	377*	+17	-3	0.5	0.9
/162	664	18	2	+5.0	-1.0	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.3	231	9	0	233	256	397	+4	+1	0.5	0.5
/162	664	27	1	+11.9	+4.1	1.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
René Pinto (OGILVIE)	30	45	60	45	35	211/265/369	158	281	4	1	32%	6%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	51→50	43→45	47	217/290/374	157	283	19	6	30%	9%	88	+0.4	208/275/364	156	281	19	6	32%	8%	80	-0.2	192/268/338	145	255	18	3	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	39→49	53→55	47→30	42	208/273/379	171	290	22	3	35%	8%	82	+0.0	201/273/351	150	292	18	6	36%	8%	76	-0.4	152/235/284	132	216	17	0	37%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Mike Brosseau 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	51→55	47→45	43	215/285/366	151	273	20	6	29%	7%	84	+0.1	207/275/321	114	260	14	7	26%	7%	70	-0.9	192/263/287	95	241	13	5	25%	7%	55	-1.2
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→49	47→50	49→45	46	248/306/380	132	316	14	5	26%	7%	94	+0.9	224/280/354	130	280	14	11	25%	7%	78	-0.3	192/244/301	110	234	13	13	24%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	43→42	49→50	45→40	41	221/275/369	149	292	18	5	30%	6%	80	-0.1	201/260/353	152	254	18	4	28%	7%	71	-0.8	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Riley Adams 2024 · MLB	28	46→44	50	45→40	43	227/302/390	163	315	16	3	32%	8%	95	+1.0	222/294/370	148	308	17	4	32%	7%	88	+0.4	209/288/350	140	291	18	2	33%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2022 · MLB	29	41→42	47→50	44→45	37	211/260/340	129	290	15	4	32%	5%	68	-1.0	195/238/313	118	269	15	7	33%	4%	53	-2.1	165/235/287	122	232	17	5	36%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Luis Torrens 2024 · MLB	28	46→49	49→50	42→40	42	231/284/377	145	302	17	3	29%	6%	85	+0.2	235/291/373	138	291	14	4	24%	7%	87	+0.4	235/293/375	140	282	15	2	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	44→40	48→50	46→45	44	223/291/368	144	283	16	6	27%	7%	86	+0.3	220/268/367	147	280	19	6	28%	6%	77	-0.3	208/252/348	140	261	19	5	28%	5%	65	-0.7
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	50→55	45→50	46	238/294/400	161	283	18	7	23%	7%	94	+0.9	215/283/374	159	261	17	6	24%	8%	85	+0.2	182/261/344	162	214	18	2	24%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Taylor Teagarden 2014 · MLB	30	40→49	50→55	43→30	40	211/264/362	151	287	19	6	33%	6%	74	-0.5	229/288/380	151	335	20	4	35%	7%	88	+0.4	225/286/366	141	337	19	0	37%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Ryan Casteel 2021 · AA	30	41→49	52→55	48→40	40	216/268/381	165	290	20	4	33%	6%	81	-0.1	199/256/354	155	265	20	4	32%	6%	70	-0.8	167/226/321	155	207	23	0	33%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Francisco Peña 2021 · MLB	31	43→48	51→55	48→40	41	225/263/384	158	261	20	7	23%	4%	79	-0.2	204/257/357	153	239	21	6	25%	5%	72	-0.7	174/227/317	143	193	22	1	25%	5%	51	-1.7
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	39→38	51→50	44→45	45	208/269/367	159	244	19	4	24%	7%	78	-0.3	204/277/355	151	257	17	4	27%	7%	78	-0.3	178/254/344	166	215	21	0	29%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Mike Rivera 2007 · MLB	30	45	54→55	43→45	40	237/274/408	170	259	23	7	20%	4%	89	+0.5	216/265/368	152	249	20	8	22%	5%	77	-0.3	183/258/282	99	248	9	4	29%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0

René Pinto

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps