Karson Milbrandt

Karson Milbrandt P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%21.0%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%5.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL4040

CMD4045

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$22M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.57	—
2022	18	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.60	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	1.7%	5.00	4.37	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	1.7%	5.00	4.37	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	1.2%	5.00	3.40	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	1.5%	4.33	4.48	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	1.5%	4.33	4.48	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	1.1%	4.33	3.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.62	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.62	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	0.8%	3.00	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	23	107	466	125	67	16	96%	4.5	22.0%	13.7%	8.3%	3.9%	5.05	5.10	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	23	107	466	125	67	16	96%	4.5	22.0%	13.7%	8.3%	3.9%	5.05	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	MIA	9	9	47	183	70	17	4	100%	5.2	38.3%	9.3%	29.0%	2.2%	1.34	2.25	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	MIA	15	14	60	283	55	50	12	93%	4.0	19.4%	17.7%	1.8%	4.2%	7.95	6.02	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	8	32	7	5	1	100%	7.6	21.0%	15.4%	5.6%	2.4%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	115	498	132	72	17	—	—	26.4%	14.4%	12.0%	3.4%	5.04	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	143	603	132	80	15	100%	5.3	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	2.4%	4.75	4.65	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	172	727	164	88	18	100%	5.6	22.6%	12.1%	10.5%	2.4%	4.55	4.44	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	175	739	169	83	18	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.5%	4.41	4.32	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	739	171	82	18	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.30	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	728	168	82	18	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.33	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	167	706	162	80	18	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.6%	4.39	4.42	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	160	674	153	78	19	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.49	4.55	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	150	634	142	75	19	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.73	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	140	591	130	72	19	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	130	547	118	69	19	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.7%	8.9%	3.4%	5.02	5.16	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	77	325	71	43	7	100%	5.5	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	2.3%	4.68	4.58	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	125	528	119	64	12	100%	5.7	22.6%	12.1%	10.5%	2.3%	4.48	4.37	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	145	612	140	69	14	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.3%	4.34	4.25	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	154	650	150	72	15	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.3%	4.27	4.23	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	157	663	153	74	16	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	2.4%	4.27	4.26	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	154	650	149	74	16	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	2.5%	4.32	4.35	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	149	629	143	73	17	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	2.6%	4.41	4.47	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	141	595	133	71	17	100%	5.9	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.55	4.65	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	133	562	123	69	17	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.84	-0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	123	519	112	66	17	100%	6.2	21.5%	12.7%	8.9%	3.3%	4.93	5.07	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	230	1358	5734	1295	676	149	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.48	4.11	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	100	22	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.48	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		92	91	392	1727	334	246	36	99%	4.3	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	2.1%	4.41	4.42	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	46	200	881	170	125	18	99%	4.3	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	2.1%	4.41	4.42	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Karson Milbrandt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	21.0%	15.4%	2.4%	—	4.46	22.5%	10.4%	490	-0.52	—	—	—
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	91
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.95	16.7%	5.5%	391	+0.14	4.04	498	88
Blake Rivera R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	21	SP	3.85	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.89	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.04	3.72	179	87
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	87
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	86
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	86
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	84
Jordan Foley R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.00	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.16	3.21	305	84
Jack Leiter R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	22	SP	5.05	20.8%	14.5%	3.4%	.309	4.40	23.9%	12.8%	346	-0.65	3.90	519	84
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	83
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	83
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	82
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	82
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	82
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	82
Reese Olson R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	20.2%	13.2%	1.9%	.284	3.75	24.1%	16.0%	372	-0.39	3.03	640	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.4	152	22.5%	12.0%	1.04	4.58
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32