Karson Milbrandt

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#394ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	A+MIA	22	22	98	4.33	3.65	20.7%	13.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.48
2025	21	MIX3 levels	22	22	90	3.00	2.62	29.0%	12.3%	—	K 23.1% · BB 14.7% · FIP 3.62
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	24	111	5.42	4.69	26.9%	14.1%	—	K 22.5% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	2	2	10	5.28	5.28	22.1%	14.3%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	24	MLBMIA	9	9	50	4.97	4.89	22.7%	12.6%	0.2
2029PROJ69% MLB	25	MLBMIA	13	13	74	4.79	4.71	23.0%	11.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.6 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 68%

CompsMax Bain (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Connor Staine (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%22.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.57	—
2022	18	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.60	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	1.7%	5.00	4.37	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	1.2%	5.00	3.40	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	1.5%	4.33	4.48	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	1.5%	4.33	4.48	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	1.1%	4.33	3.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.62	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.62	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	0.8%	3.00	2.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	111	490	132	69	18	96%	4.5	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	4.1%	5.42	5.16	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	111	490	132	69	18	96%	4.5	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	4.1%	5.42	5.16	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	111	490	132	69	18	96%	4.5	26.9%	14.1%	12.9%	3.7%	5.42	4.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	2	2	10	42	9	6	1	100%	5.0	22.1%	14.3%	7.8%	3.4%	5.28	5.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	103	433	98	55	14	100%	5.7	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.3%	5.06	4.98	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	106	449	103	52	15	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.80	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	111	470	109	53	15	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.3%	4.79	4.75	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	455	105	51	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.3%	4.77	4.77	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	102	433	99	50	15	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.86	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	95	402	92	47	14	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.92	4.99	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	87	366	82	44	14	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.8%	5.07	5.17	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	50	211	48	27	7	100%	5.6	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.1%	4.97	4.89	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	74	312	72	36	10	100%	5.7	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.71	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	90	380	88	43	12	100%	6.0	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.66	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	93	393	91	44	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.68	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	92	388	89	44	13	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	3.2%	4.73	4.77	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	87	367	84	43	12	100%	6.2	22.7%	11.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.82	4.89	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	80	338	76	40	12	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.6%	4.97	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	565	2386	546	277	77	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.79	4.42	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	98	27	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.79	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		93	92	396	1751	341	248	38	99%	4.3	19.5%	14.1%	5.3%	2.2%	4.52	4.45	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	46	200	884	172	125	19	99%	4.3	19.5%	14.1%	5.3%	2.2%	4.52	4.45	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 64 IPFIP 6.04 → 6.32 (+0.27)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.860	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.94%	—	×0.900	15.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.56%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.04 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 47 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.22 (+0.97)K% 38.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.25%	—	×0.810	30.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.100	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 77 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.62 (+0.95)K% 30.1% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.06%	—	×0.770	23.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.80%	—	×1.150	14.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 11 IPFIP 2.35 → 2.82 (+0.47)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.100	9.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.103	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.35 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 98 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.48 (+0.86)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.770	15.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.98%	—	×1.150	14.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.935	×1.250	1.52%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 52 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.73 (+1.15)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.71%	—	×0.740	16.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.180	13.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.924	×1.300	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 43 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.96 (+0.79)K% 21.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.03%	—	×0.770	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.31%	—	×1.150	14.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.817	×1.250	0.78%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Karson Milbrandt (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.84	22.9%	11.1%	320	-0.44	—	—	—
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	93
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	91
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	90
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	89
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	88
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	88
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	87
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.91	18.3%	8.6%	289	-1.35	3.70	470	87
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	87
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.26	24.8%	12.8%	123	-1.71	2.50	392	86
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	85
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	85
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Tanner Burns R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.2%	12.8%	4.3%	.257	5.11	18.7%	6.1%	191	-0.33	4.34	382	84
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	101	22.8%	12.0%	1.31	4.94
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*