Karson Milbrandt

Karson Milbrandt P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

+0.6 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.1 · 2030

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.2%

IP85

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
2023	19	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	16.5%	13.7%	1.7%	5.00	4.36	+1.0
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	16.0%	14.9%	1.5%	4.33	4.47	+0.9
2025	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	23.1%	14.7%	1.1%	3.00	3.61	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	2	8	38	9	6	1	—	—	—	1.08	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	15	15	85	360	77	44	9	21.5%	12.3%	2.4%	4.55	4.55	+0.6
2026 Total	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	94	398	86	50	10	21.7%	12.7%	2.4%	4.24	4.14	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	MIA	20	20	108	458	102	50	11	22.3%	10.9%	2.4%	4.40	4.32	+1.2
2028	24	MLB	MIA	23	23	127	537	122	54	13	22.8%	10.1%	2.4%	4.26	4.17	+1.6
2029	25	MLB	MIA	26	26	141	594	137	57	15	23.1%	9.6%	2.4%	4.15	4.08	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	MIA	27	27	148	624	145	59	15	23.3%	9.5%	2.5%	4.10	4.07	+2.1
2031	27	MLB	MIA	27	27	151	636	148	60	16	23.3%	9.5%	2.5%	4.08	4.07	+2.1
2032	28	MLB	MIA	27	27	150	635	148	61	16	23.3%	9.6%	2.5%	4.09	4.10	+2.0
2033	29	MLB	MIA	27	27	147	620	144	60	16	23.2%	9.6%	2.6%	4.12	4.15	+1.9
2034	30	MLB	MIA	26	26	142	602	138	59	16	23.0%	9.7%	2.6%	4.17	4.21	+1.8
2035	31	MLB	MIA	25	25	138	581	132	57	16	22.7%	9.9%	2.7%	4.24	4.28	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	MIA	24	24	132	557	125	56	15	22.4%	10.0%	2.8%	4.32	4.37	+1.4
2037	33	MLB	MIA	23	23	126	532	118	54	15	22.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.47	+1.2
2038	34	MLB	MIA	22	22	120	506	110	53	15	21.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.58	+1.0
2039	35	MLB	MIA	21	21	113	477	102	51	15	21.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.62	4.70	+0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			70	70	293	1299	240	188	19	18.5%	14.5%	1.5%	4.08	4.17	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—			48	48	200	886	164	128	13	18.5%	14.5%	1.5%	4.08	4.17	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Karson Milbrandt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.5%	12.3%	2.4%	—	4.18	22.8%	12.6%	376	-0.37	—	—	—
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	94
Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	94
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	93
Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.34	18.8%	7.3%	314	+0.35	3.71	397	92
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	92
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	91
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	91
Jordan Foley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	91
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	90
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	89
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP-	4.11	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.57	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.54	3.13	319	89
Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	89
Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	88
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	88
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	88
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	88
Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	88
Levi Stoudt R 2027 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	88
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	88
Cody Deason R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP-	3.40	21.0%	12.3%	0.9%	.280	4.39	16.1%	2.2%	78	+0.99	3.40	178	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$18M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$19M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.9	$19M	+$13M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.8	$18M	+$10M
Totals		$21M		$111M	+$90M