Karson Milbrandt

Karson Milbrandt P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%20.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—50

CTRL—40

CMD—45

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.57	—
2022	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.60	—
2023	19	MIX	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	1.9%	5.00	4.50	—
2023	19	MIX	2 levels	23	23	95	424	93	50	5	100%	4.1	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	1.2%	5.00	3.40	—
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	16.0%	14.9%	1.0%	1.6%	4.33	4.54	—
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	22	22	98	439	91	57	5	100%	4.4	20.7%	13.0%	7.7%	1.1%	4.33	3.65	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	23.1%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.61	—
2025	21	MIX	3 levels	22	22	90	389	113	48	3	100%	4.1	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	0.8%	3.00	2.62	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	15	14	70	290	90	39	4	93%	4.7	25.6%	14.4%	11.2%	1.7%	2.70	3.67	+0.9
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	12	12	60	252	51	38	6	100%	5.0	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	2.4%	4.98	4.98	-0.3
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	2.4%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	130	542	141	77	10	—	—	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	1.9%	3.75	4.27	+1.7
2026 FULL	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	20.4%	14.9%	5.5%	2.4%	4.94	4.57	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIA	12	12	62	261	56	34	6	100%	5.2	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.4%	4.77	4.68	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	MIA	11	11	63	268	59	32	7	100%	5.8	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	2.5%	4.58	4.48	+0.1
2029	25	MLB	MIA	11	11	64	271	61	30	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	4.44	4.35	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	MIA	11	11	64	271	62	30	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	2.5%	4.38	4.33	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	MIA	11	11	63	267	61	30	7	100%	5.7	22.8%	11.2%	11.5%	2.5%	4.37	4.37	+0.2
2027	23	MLB	MIA	6	6	31	131	28	17	3	100%	5.2	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.4%	4.73	4.64	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	MIA	8	8	45	190	42	23	5	100%	5.6	22.1%	12.0%	10.2%	2.4%	4.54	4.44	+0.1
2029	25	MLB	MIA	9	9	52	220	50	25	5	100%	5.8	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.4%	4.40	4.31	+0.1
2030	26	MLB	MIA	9	9	56	236	54	26	6	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	2.4%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	MIA	10	10	57	241	55	27	6	100%	5.7	22.8%	11.2%	11.5%	2.5%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			42	42	242	1023	229	119	25	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	189	98	21	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	2.4%	4.44	4.00	+3.3
Career	—			83	82	355	1551	305	224	24	99%	4.3	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	1.6%	3.88	4.13	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—			47	46	200	874	172	126	14	99%	4.3	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	1.6%	3.88	4.13	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Karson Milbrandt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	20.4%	14.9%	2.4%	—	4.50	22.0%	9.9%	190	-0.48	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	89
Blake Rivera R 2025 · 3.80 FIP	21	SP	3.80	20.3%	14.5%	1.1%	.298	3.92	19.8%	8.3%	61	+0.12	3.78	179	87
Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	87
Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	23.5%	16.3%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	156	86
Mike Ruff R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	18.5%	12.4%	1.4%	.301	5.54	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.68	3.86	260	86
J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP	4.91	18.2%	16.0%	2.4%	.259	5.03	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.12	4.62	195	86
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.37 FIP	23	SP	5.37	20.5%	15.2%	3.8%	.291	6.65	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.28	5.16	174	85
Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	22	SP	5.22	16.3%	13.8%	3.2%	.241	4.48	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.74	3.49	186	85
Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	18.3%	17.1%	1.8%	.319	4.54	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.16	3.96	165	84
Shane Davis R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	20.9%	14.2%	1.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	129	84
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.75	18.7%	6.9%	107	+1.87	3.88	192	84
Jordan Foley R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.6%	12.1%	1.7%	.294	4.08	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.24	305	84
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	84
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	84
Tyler Skulina R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	84
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP	4.63	20.0%	13.2%	2.8%	.280	4.97	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.34	4.09	498	83
Frank German R 2025 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	83
Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	83
James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.0%	15.2%	1.6%	.277	4.35	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.33	4.02	109	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	63	22.0%	12.2%	0.96	4.58
Fernando Rodney ('19)	5	59	24.6%	11.8%	0.88	4.21
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Greg Holland ('21)	6	45	25.4%	12.3%	0.87	4.03
José Cisnero ('23)	5	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Junior Guerra ('21)	6	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
John Gant ('21)	4	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91