Tyler Gough

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#700ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	AModesto Nuts	10	9	30	5.70	4.30	18.0%	11.3%	—	K 13.4% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.48
2024	20	AModesto Nuts	23	23	96	4.33	2.91	23.9%	11.4%	—	K 17.7% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.88
2026	22	MIX3 levels	17	16	65	1.79	2.14	32.0%	11.6%	—	K 23.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.12
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	—	—	0	4.60	4.60	22.9%	13.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	5	5	27	4.52	4.45	23.5%	11.7%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	6	6	35	4.40	4.32	23.9%	10.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsJaxon Wiggins (age 22) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · TJ Shook (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	90%	3.0	13.4%	13.3%	0.0%	3.3%	5.70	5.48	—
2023	19	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	90%	3.0	18.0%	11.3%	6.8%	2.3%	5.70	4.30	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.1%	4.33	3.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.1%	4.33	3.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	0.7%	4.33	2.91	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	16	65	259	83	30	1	94%	3.8	23.5%	13.6%	9.9%	0.5%	1.79	3.12	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	16	65	259	83	30	1	94%	3.8	23.5%	13.6%	9.9%	0.5%	1.79	3.12	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	16	65	259	83	30	1	94%	3.8	32.0%	11.6%	20.5%	0.4%	1.79	2.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	13.1%	9.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	62	260	61	30	7	100%	5.6	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	2.6%	4.46	4.39	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	223	53	24	6	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.8%	13.1%	2.6%	4.34	4.26	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	52	220	53	24	6	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	2.6%	4.28	4.24	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	51	214	51	23	6	100%	6.3	24.0%	10.8%	13.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.28	+0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	27	114	27	13	3	100%	5.4	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.52	4.45	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	35	148	35	16	4	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.8%	13.1%	2.7%	4.40	4.32	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	41	173	42	19	5	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.30	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	43	182	44	20	5	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.34	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	146	617	148	68	17	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	93	23	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		50	48	191	806	152	108	10	96%	3.8	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	1.3%	3.68	3.90	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	50	200	844	159	114	11	96%	3.8	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	1.3%	3.68	3.90	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 42 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.55 (+1.00)K% 32.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.74%	—	×0.770	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.88%	—	×1.150	17.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 20 IPFIP 1.48 → 2.18 (+0.71)K% 26.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.740	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.180	6.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.48 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 96 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.88 (+0.96)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.740	17.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.180	13.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.897	×1.300	1.05%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 30 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.48 (+1.24)K% 18.0% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.05%	—	×0.740	13.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.180	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.883	×1.300	3.32%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Gough (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.30	23.8%	12.7%	167	-0.30	—	—	—
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	87
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	87
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	86
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	86
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	82
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	82
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	23.7%	11.5%	1.01	4.40
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Horacio Pina ('68-'78, 2 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.7%*	11.2%*	0.84*	4.01*