Tyler Gough
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.0%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 9 | 30 | 133 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 90% | 3.0 | 13.4% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 5.70 | 5.76 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 10 | 9 | 30 | 133 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 90% | 3.0 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 5.70 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 23 | 23 | 96 | 414 | 99 | 47 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 4.33 | 3.95 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 23 | 23 | 96 | 414 | 99 | 47 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.9% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 0.7% | 4.33 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 10 | 10 | 36 | 141 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 100% | 3.6 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 1.24 | 2.65 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 101 | 415 | 106 | 42 | 8 | — | — | 25.6% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 3.31 | 3.82 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 67 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 70 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 73 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 69 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 278 | 66 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 51 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 65 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 94 | 558 | 2354 | 552 | 219 | 70 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.93 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 79 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 42 | 162 | 688 | 123 | 90 | 10 | 98% | 3.8 | 17.9% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 3.89 | 4.04 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 52 | 200 | 849 | 152 | 111 | 12 | 98% | 3.8 | 17.9% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 3.89 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Gough (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.20 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 213 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 93 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 89 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 87 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 86 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 85 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 85 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 85 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 85 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 85 |
| Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 85 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 85 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 85 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 84 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 84 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 83 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 83 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 66 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 1.16 | 4.34 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |