Tyler Gough — OGILVIE

Tyler Gough P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	90%	3.0	13.4%	13.3%	0.0%	3.3%	5.70	5.48	—
2023	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	90%	3.0	13.4%	13.3%	0.0%	3.3%	5.70	5.48	—
2023	19	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	90%	3.0	18.0%	11.3%	6.8%	2.3%	5.70	4.30	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.1%	4.33	3.88	—
2024	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	17.7%	13.4%	4.3%	1.1%	4.33	3.88	—
2024	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	100%	4.2	23.9%	11.4%	12.6%	0.7%	4.33	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	16	65	259	83	30	1	94%	3.8	23.5%	13.6%	9.9%	0.5%	1.79	3.12	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	16	65	259	83	30	1	94%	3.8	23.5%	13.6%	9.9%	0.5%	1.79	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	LAD	2	2	3	13	7	1	0	100%	1.5	53.8%	7.7%	46.2%	0.0%	6.00	-0.47	—
2026	22	A RAW	LAD	5	5	20	78	21	4	0	100%	4.1	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	0.0%	1.33	1.48	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	10	9	42	168	55	25	1	90%	4.2	32.7%	14.9%	17.9%	0.6%	1.71	2.55	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	6	26	5	3	1	100%	6.1	19.4%	12.7%	6.8%	2.8%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	71	285	88	33	2	—	—	30.9%	11.7%	19.2%	0.6%	2.06	3.27	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	89	377	78	42	10	100%	5.3	20.7%	11.2%	9.5%	2.8%	4.77	4.68	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	92	386	82	40	11	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.59	4.49	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	93	391	85	38	11	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.39	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	93	391	86	38	11	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	385	85	37	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.40	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	88	374	82	37	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.48	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	357	77	36	11	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	79	335	78	32	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.6%	13.7%	3.3%	4.53	4.52	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	74	312	71	31	11	100%	6.2	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	289	65	30	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.83	4.95	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	44	186	38	21	5	100%	5.5	20.7%	11.2%	9.5%	2.9%	4.83	4.74	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	58	28	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	75	317	69	31	9	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.45	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	81	342	75	33	10	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	82	346	76	34	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	82	346	76	34	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.55	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	79	334	72	34	11	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	74	312	73	30	11	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.61	4.60	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	70	296	68	29	11	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.6%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	65	274	61	28	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.9%	4.92	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	716	3025	666	301	96	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.24	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	186	84	27	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.62	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		50	48	191	806	152	108	10	96%	3.8	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	1.3%	3.68	3.90	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	50	200	844	159	114	11	96%	3.8	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	1.3%	3.68	3.90	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Gough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.4%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.52	21.3%	10.9%	273	-0.46	—	—	—
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	88
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	86
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	85
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	85
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	84	21.7%	10.2%	1.16	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04