Tyler Gough — OGILVIE

Tyler Gough P Modesto Nuts

+0.9 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.2 · 2030

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.7%

IP96

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	A	Modesto Nuts	10	9	30	133	24	15	3	13.4%	13.3%	3.2%	5.70	5.43	-0.2
2024	20	A	Modesto Nuts	23	23	96	414	99	47	3	17.7%	13.4%	1.1%	4.33	3.89	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	—	17	17	96	404	89	41	11	22.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	—	22	22	119	504	114	47	14	22.7%	9.4%	2.8%	4.34	4.28	+1.4
2028	24	MLB	—	25	25	138	584	135	52	16	23.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.17	+1.8
2029	25	MLB	—	28	28	152	642	151	56	18	23.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.15	4.11	+2.1
2030	26	MLB	—	29	29	159	671	159	58	19	23.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.09	+2.2
2031	27	MLB	—	29	29	162	683	162	59	19	23.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.10	4.10	+2.2
2032	28	MLB	—	29	29	161	681	161	59	19	23.7%	8.7%	2.8%	4.11	4.12	+2.2
2033	29	MLB	—	29	29	158	666	157	58	19	23.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.17	+2.0
2034	30	MLB	—	28	28	153	646	151	57	19	23.3%	8.8%	2.9%	4.19	4.23	+1.9
2035	31	MLB	—	27	27	148	624	144	56	19	23.1%	9.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+1.7
2036	32	MLB	—	26	26	142	599	137	55	18	22.8%	9.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.39	+1.5
2037	33	MLB	—	25	25	135	572	129	53	18	22.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+1.2
2038	34	MLB	—	23	23	129	543	120	52	18	22.2%	9.5%	3.3%	4.53	4.60	+1.0
2039	35	MLB	—	22	22	121	512	111	50	17	21.8%	9.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.72	+0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			33	32	126	547	91	73	9	16.6%	13.4%	1.6%	4.66	4.26	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			53	51	200	871	145	116	14	16.6%	13.4%	1.6%	4.66	4.26	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Gough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.0%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.18	23.2%	14.2%	410	-0.28	—	—	—
David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	95
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	94
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	93
Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	92
Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	92
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	91
Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	18.6%	9.7%	72	+0.50	3.90	193	91
Blake Wehunt R 2027 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	91
Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	91
Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	22	SP-	3.42	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.08	22.0%	5.4%	139	+1.66	3.42	240	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	22	SP-	3.52	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.92	3.52	306	90
Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	90
Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	90
Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	90
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	90
David Festa R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	22	SP-	3.66	19.9%	9.5%	1.9%	.275	3.74	26.6%	17.0%	302	+0.08	3.66	405	90
Rorik Maltrud R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	89
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	89
Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.13	2.77	186	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.2	$21M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.0	$20M	+$19M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.9	$19M	+$15M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.7	$18M	+$12M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$12M		$98M	+$86M