J.D. Thompson

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 23 LHP A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#999ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	17	17	61	3.98	3.36	30.7%	14.2%	—	K 24.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.96	4.96	25.0%	15.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIL	5	5	27	4.83	4.74	25.4%	13.5%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIL	6	6	36	4.65	4.55	25.6%	12.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Brent Killam (age 23) · Samy Natera Jr. (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%25.0%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	61	261	80	37	5	100%	3.6	24.3%	16.6%	7.7%	2.5%	3.98	4.51	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	61	261	80	37	5	100%	3.6	24.3%	16.6%	7.7%	2.5%	3.98	4.51	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	61	261	80	37	5	100%	3.6	30.7%	14.2%	16.5%	1.9%	3.98	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.0%	15.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.96	4.96	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	62	260	66	35	8	100%	5.6	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.75	4.66	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	54	226	58	28	7	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.47	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	53	223	57	27	7	100%	5.9	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	51	217	56	26	6	100%	5.7	25.6%	12.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.47	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	27	114	29	15	4	100%	5.4	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.74	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	36	152	39	19	5	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.2%	13.4%	3.1%	4.65	4.55	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	42	177	46	21	5	100%	6.0	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.57	4.52	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	48	22	6	100%	6.3	25.6%	12.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.55	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	148	624	160	77	19	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.20	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	104	26	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		17	17	61	261	63	43	6	100%	3.6	24.3%	16.6%	7.7%	2.5%	3.98	4.51	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	856	208	142	21	100%	3.6	24.3%	16.6%	7.7%	2.5%	3.98	4.51	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 30 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.71 (+0.95)K% 29.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.84%	—	×0.770	22.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.71%	—	×1.150	15.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 27 IPFIP 4.26 → 5.34 (+1.07)K% 31.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.810	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.83%	—	×1.100	17.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.D. Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.53	25.6%	12.9%	168	-0.43	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	86
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	83
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	82
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	78
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	77
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	77
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	77
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	77
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	76
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	74
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	74
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	74
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	74
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	73
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	25.5%	13.2%	1.14	4.66
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*