Jackson Cox
P
Spokane Indians
+0.6
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2030
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.0%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2030
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 10 | 9 | 31 | 149 | 32 | 20 | 2 | 15.9% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 7.26 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 23 | 23 | 85 | 341 | 92 | 25 | 12 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.39 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 2 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 15 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 80 | 33 | 12 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 93 | 397 | 95 | 36 | 13 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.20 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 105 | 39 | 15 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 125 | 45 | 17 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 140 | 48 | 19 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 623 | 148 | 51 | 20 | 23.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 150 | 635 | 152 | 52 | 20 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.24 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 151 | 52 | 20 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 619 | 147 | 51 | 20 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 141 | 50 | 20 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 137 | 580 | 135 | 49 | 20 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 128 | 48 | 19 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 121 | 47 | 19 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 113 | 46 | 18 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 104 | 44 | 18 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 34 | 124 | 528 | 107 | 56 | 20 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.86 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 55 | 200 | 852 | 173 | 90 | 32 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Cox (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.32 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 376 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 94 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 92 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.52 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 306 | 90 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 90 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.38 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 433 | 90 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 89 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 89 |
| Colin Peluse R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 88 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 88 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 88 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 88 |
| Chase Hampton R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 87 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 87 |
| Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 87 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.9% | .236 | 4.64 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.17 | 4.22 | 289 | 87 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .362 | 2.90 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -0.78 | 2.23 | 256 | 87 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.75 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 364 | +0.82 | 3.93 | 476 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 87 |
| Ben Gross R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.3 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $18M | $95M | +$77M | ||