Jackson Cox

P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#385ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ACOL	10	9	31	7.26	3.81	21.5%	13.4%	—	K 15.9% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.57
2025	21	ACOL	23	23	85	3.39	3.65	27.0%	7.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.40
2026	22	MIX2 levels	20	19	97	4.25	3.81	30.9%	9.4%	—	K 24.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.76	4.76	23.8%	10.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	6	6	34	4.94	4.90	24.2%	9.6%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	8	8	49	4.84	4.80	24.4%	9.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 9.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 73%

CompsTrent Palmer (age 23) · Cody Laweryson (age 23) · Ryan Jensen (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.7M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	10	9	31	149	32	20	2	90%	3.1	15.9%	15.8%	0.1%	1.5%	7.26	4.57	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	10	9	31	149	32	20	2	90%	3.1	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	1.3%	7.26	3.81	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	5.3%	3.39	5.40	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	5.3%	3.39	5.40	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	27.0%	7.3%	19.6%	3.5%	3.39	3.65	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	414	128	39	16	95%	4.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	4.7%	4.25	4.99	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	97	414	128	39	16	95%	4.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	4.7%	4.25	4.99	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	97	414	128	39	16	95%	4.9	30.9%	9.4%	21.5%	3.9%	4.25	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.6%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	78	330	80	32	12	100%	5.6	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.64	4.60	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	74	313	76	29	11	100%	5.7	24.4%	9.3%	15.1%	3.5%	4.55	4.51	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	74	311	76	29	11	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	3.5%	4.50	4.48	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	303	74	28	11	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.5%	4.50	4.51	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	288	70	27	10	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	3.6%	4.56	4.59	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	64	268	65	26	10	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.8%	4.66	4.73	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	63	268	69	24	11	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	4.0%	4.64	4.63	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	56	237	60	22	10	100%	6.2	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	4.2%	4.76	4.83	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	34	144	35	14	6	100%	5.7	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	4.1%	4.94	4.90	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	49	207	51	19	8	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.3%	15.1%	4.0%	4.84	4.80	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	60	23	10	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	4.0%	4.79	4.77	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	63	24	10	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	4.0%	4.79	4.80	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	63	24	11	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	4.2%	4.86	4.89	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	59	24	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	4.3%	4.97	5.04	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	63	22	11	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	4.6%	4.97	4.96	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	52	220	56	21	11	100%	5.8	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	4.8%	5.11	5.18	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	432	1822	449	170	77	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.4%	15.3%	4.3%	4.91	4.54	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	79	36	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.4%	15.3%	4.3%	4.91	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		53	51	213	904	192	97	40	96%	4.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	4.4%	4.35	5.08	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	48	200	848	180	91	37	96%	4.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	4.4%	4.35	5.08	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 55 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.60 (+1.29)K% 32.8% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.77%	—	×0.770	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.150	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.78%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 42 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.52 (+1.05)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.41%	—	×0.810	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 85 IPFIP 3.68 → 5.40 (+1.72)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.98%	—	×0.740	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.33%	—	×1.180	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷0.870	×1.300	5.26%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 31 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.57 (+0.85)K% 21.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.48%	—	×0.740	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.42%	—	×1.180	15.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.186	×1.300	1.47%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Cox (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.53	24.4%	15.0%	226	-0.23	—	—	—
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	87
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	86
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	84
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	84
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.76	13.6%	5.4%	311	-0.39	4.07	567	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	83
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	83
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	83
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.85	18.8%	11.1%	207	-1.27	3.22	274	82
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	24.5%	9.5%	1.42	4.61
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Jeff Brantley ('88-'01, 9 WAR*)	4.3	72	24.3%*	10.0%*	1.43*	3.73*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*