Jackson Cox — OGILVIE

Jackson Cox P Spokane Indians

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%20.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL—55

CMD3545

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	10	9	31	149	32	20	2	90%	3.1	15.9%	15.8%	0.1%	1.5%	7.26	4.57	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	10	9	31	149	32	20	2	90%	3.1	15.9%	15.8%	0.1%	1.5%	7.26	4.57	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	10	9	31	149	32	20	2	90%	3.1	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	1.3%	7.26	3.81	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	5.3%	3.39	5.40	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	5.3%	3.39	5.40	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	23	23	85	341	92	25	12	100%	3.7	27.0%	7.3%	19.6%	3.5%	3.39	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	20	19	97	414	128	39	16	95%	4.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	4.7%	4.25	4.99	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	20	19	97	414	128	39	16	95%	4.9	24.3%	10.6%	13.7%	4.7%	4.25	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	COL	11	10	55	238	78	17	9	91%	5.0	32.8%	7.1%	25.6%	3.8%	4.23	3.31	—
2026	22	AA RAW	COL	9	9	42	176	50	22	7	100%	4.7	28.4%	12.5%	15.9%	4.0%	4.29	4.47	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	5	23	5	2	1	100%	5.4	20.8%	9.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	103	437	133	41	17	—	—	30.4%	9.4%	21.0%	3.8%	4.28	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	99	418	92	37	14	100%	5.5	21.9%	9.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.56	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	101	428	97	37	14	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.6%	13.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.43	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	103	434	99	37	14	100%	5.7	22.9%	8.5%	14.5%	3.2%	4.42	4.37	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	103	434	100	36	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	3.2%	4.37	4.34	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	101	427	99	36	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.38	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	415	95	36	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	3.3%	4.43	4.46	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	94	396	90	35	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.9%	13.9%	3.5%	4.53	4.59	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	88	372	83	34	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.7%	4.68	4.77	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	82	347	76	33	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.9%	4.86	4.97	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	49	207	45	19	8	100%	5.4	21.9%	9.0%	13.0%	3.8%	4.89	4.83	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	71	300	68	26	11	100%	5.5	22.6%	8.6%	13.9%	3.7%	4.77	4.70	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	83	350	80	30	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.5%	14.5%	3.7%	4.69	4.64	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	88	32	14	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.7%	3.7%	4.64	4.61	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	91	384	89	33	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.7%	4.65	4.65	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	87	33	15	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	3.8%	4.71	4.74	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	87	367	84	33	15	100%	6.2	22.7%	8.9%	13.9%	4.0%	4.82	4.88	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	83	350	78	32	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	4.2%	4.99	5.08	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	78	329	72	31	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	4.5%	5.19	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	723	3052	692	268	119	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	3.9%	4.81	4.44	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	74	33	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	3.9%	4.81	4.44	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		53	51	213	904	192	97	40	96%	4.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	4.4%	4.35	5.08	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	48	200	848	180	91	37	96%	4.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	4.4%	4.35	5.08	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Cox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	20.8%	9.4%	3.3%	—	4.45	22.5%	13.8%	303	-0.31	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	93
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	87
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	87
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	87
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	86
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	86
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	85
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.37	23.7%	10.9%	181	+0.68	4.69	300	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	93	22.5%	8.8%	1.30	4.54
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98