Jackson Cox P Spokane Indians
Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129119vR 110
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
K%20.8%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
K: +4.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+5KBB: -2.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: -15.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-15CONTACTSTAM: +19.8 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+20STAMTotal WAR: +0.75 (146 IP)+0.8WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.20.20.2+$3M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF4055
CTRL55
CMD3545
K†5055
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202319AFresno Grizzlies109311493220290%3.115.9%15.8%0.1%1.3%7.264.46
202319AFresno Grizzlies109311493220290%3.121.5%13.4%8.1%1.3%7.263.81
202521AFresno Grizzlies232385341922512100%3.720.0%8.7%11.3%6.2%3.395.91
202521AFresno Grizzlies232385341922512100%3.727.0%7.3%19.6%3.5%3.393.65
▸ 2026 Season
202622AAHartford Yard Goats171686372116381494%5.124.4%11.5%13.0%4.6%4.275.04+0.1
ROS22MLBCOL11116025152249100%5.420.8%9.5%11.2%3.5%4.854.85-0.2
ROS22MLBCOL020.8%9.5%11.2%4.0%5.145.14
2026 TOT22MLBCOL146623168622327.0%9.9%17.0%3.7%4.514.96+0.8
2026 FULL22MLBCOL0100020.8%9.5%11.2%4.0%5.144.77-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBCOL12126226157249100%5.122.0%9.2%12.9%3.4%4.714.64-0.0
202824MLBCOL11116326761249100%5.722.8%8.9%13.8%3.3%4.594.52+0.1
202925MLBCOL11116427063249100%5.823.2%8.8%14.4%3.3%4.514.46+0.1
203026MLBCOL11116427063249100%5.823.4%8.8%14.6%3.3%4.464.43+0.2
203127MLBCOL10106326662249100%6.323.4%8.9%14.5%3.3%4.464.47+0.1
202723MLBCOL663012728125100%5.022.0%9.2%12.9%3.9%4.994.92-0.1
202824MLBCOL884418642177100%5.522.8%8.9%13.8%3.8%4.874.80-0.1
202925MLBCOL995222051198100%5.823.2%8.8%14.4%3.8%4.794.74-0.1
203026MLBCOL995623655219100%6.223.4%8.8%14.6%3.8%4.744.71-0.1
203127MLBCOL10105724156219100%5.723.4%8.9%14.5%3.9%4.744.75-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career414124010122339039100%5.823.0%8.9%14.2%3.8%4.814.39+2.8
/ 200 IP34342008441947533100%5.823.0%8.9%14.2%3.8%4.814.39+2.4
Career5048202862183964096%4.021.2%11.1%10.1%4.7%4.365.28+0.3
/ 200 IP4947200852180954096%4.021.2%11.1%10.1%4.7%4.365.28+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jackson Cox (OGILVIE) 4.85 20.8%9.5%3.5% 4.54 22.7%13.7%189 -0.31
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 91
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 18.8%10.5%3.4%.331 6.04 21.6%9.0%233 +1.32 4.72 283 90
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 22 SP 4.06 19.3%9.9%2.4%.268 5.93 17.4%2.1%47 +1.87 4.06 101 89
Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP 22 SP 4.70 19.5%8.3%4.0%.315 5.46 17.4%7.9%75 +0.76 4.70 159 89
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP 22 SP 4.10 19.3%9.9%2.5%.305 3.42 23.5%13.7%96 -0.68 2.58 408 88
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP 23 SP 4.23 21.7%8.4%3.5%.329 3.55 21.5%12.4%178 -0.68 2.49 298 88
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP 23 SP 4.02 18.0%8.6%2.5%.288 4.99 14.1%6.7%217 +0.97 4.02 285 88
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 23 SP 3.92 20.3%9.9%2.3%.315 4.36 22.3%13.8%422 +0.44 3.76 537 87
Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP 23 SP 4.78 21.2%11.0%3.8%.276 5.00 18.0%6.0%296 +0.22 4.22 513 87
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 19.0%8.9%3.8%.290 5.32 17.8%8.3%120 +0.60 3.31 191 87
Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP 21 SP 5.02 22.2%10.0%4.6%.302 3.95 18.7%10.3%143 -1.07 2.58 210 87
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP 22 SP 5.01 21.8%12.7%3.9%.302 4.47 15.2%5.3%127 -0.54 3.95 411 86
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP 3.71 21.9%10.5%2.0%.264 4.60 19.1%9.4%359 +0.89 3.71 429 86
Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP 22 SP 4.19 21.1%7.7%3.5%.333 4.44 16.9%8.8%341 +0.25 4.19 433 86
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP 23 SP 5.00 21.4%10.8%4.2%.236 4.59 22.3%3.9%180 -0.41 4.20 311 86
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP 22 SP 5.02 19.6%12.4%3.6%.321 4.92 22.7%6.2%260 -0.10 4.38 406 85
Will Sanders R 2026 · 5.17 FIP 22 SP 5.17 19.3%11.8%4.0%.297 4.04 20.9%12.5%167 -1.13 3.89 259 85
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP 22 SP 4.38 20.2%10.2%3.1%.288 5.37 24.0%10.8%181 +0.99 4.38 300 84
Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 21.6%8.1%3.1%.362 2.86 31.1%20.9%96 -1.14 2.26 256 84
Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP 22 SP- 4.43 19.1%7.3%3.7%.330 5.02 18.1%9.1%212 +0.59 4.37 292 83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION66322.6%9.0%1.304.59
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Austin Voth ('24)65822.2%8.2%1.504.63
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Drew VerHagen ('23)64319.7%9.4%1.404.82