Luis Serna — OGILVIE

Luis Serna P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 162 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%21.5%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	12	11	40	168	46	17	0	92%	3.3	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	0.0%	2.25	3.13	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	12	11	40	168	46	17	0	92%	3.3	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	0.0%	2.25	2.08	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	10	41	174	56	17	0	91%	3.8	21.9%	12.2%	9.7%	0.0%	1.96	2.80	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	10	41	174	56	17	0	91%	3.8	32.2%	9.8%	22.4%	0.0%	1.96	1.62	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	8	19	85	23	8	2	100%	2.4	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.4%	4.19	4.34	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	8	19	85	23	8	2	100%	2.4	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.4%	4.19	4.34	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	8	19	85	23	8	2	100%	2.4	27.1%	9.4%	17.6%	2.4%	4.19	3.31	—
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.07	4.04	—
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.07	4.04	—
2024	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	27.1%	7.9%	19.1%	2.0%	6.07	2.90	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
2025	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.09	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYY	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	28.1%	8.0%	20.0%	2.4%	4.32	3.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	121	509	113	45	15	100%	5.2	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	124	522	119	44	15	100%	5.6	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	528	122	44	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	125	528	123	44	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	123	520	121	43	15	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.19	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	120	505	117	43	15	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.23	4.27	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	482	110	42	15	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.40	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	453	102	41	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	423	94	40	15	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	93	391	85	38	15	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.8%	12.0%	3.9%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	60	253	56	22	8	100%	5.5	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.49	4.44	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	86	363	83	31	11	100%	5.7	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.39	4.33	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	102	431	100	36	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.33	4.28	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	109	460	107	38	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.29	4.26	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	111	469	109	39	15	100%	6.2	23.3%	8.3%	14.9%	3.1%	4.29	4.30	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	110	464	108	39	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.38	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	106	448	103	39	15	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.4%	4.45	4.52	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	95	38	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.61	4.71	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	95	401	89	38	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.9%	4.79	4.91	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	88	372	81	36	15	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.8%	12.0%	4.1%	5.01	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	968	4087	931	357	138	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.49	4.14	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	74	29	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.49	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		76	73	296	1260	263	134	25	96%	3.9	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.0%	4.14	3.77	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	851	178	90	17	96%	3.9	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.0%	4.14	3.77	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Serna (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	21.5%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.24	22.7%	14.2%	369	-0.26	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	88
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	88
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	86
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	85
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	85
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	84
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	84
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	82
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	108	22.7%	8.7%	1.21	4.37
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73