Luis Serna

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 162 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#261ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ANYY	4	4	7	5.14	3.24	32.3%	22.6%	—	K 32.3% · BB 22.6% · FIP 3.24
2026	22	A+NYY	23	23	119	4.32	3.07	28.1%	8.0%	—	K 21.6% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	1	1	1	4.47	4.47	21.6%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBNYY	8	8	43	4.49	4.45	22.2%	8.8%	0.5
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBNYY	10	10	56	4.42	4.38	22.6%	8.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsLogan Workman (age 23) · Kyle Wright (age 23) · Trevor Martin (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%21.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	12	11	40	168	46	17	0	92%	3.3	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	0.0%	2.25	3.13	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	12	11	40	168	46	17	0	92%	3.3	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	0.0%	2.25	2.08	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	10	41	174	56	17	0	91%	3.8	21.9%	12.2%	9.7%	0.0%	1.96	2.80	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	11	10	41	174	56	17	0	91%	3.8	32.2%	9.8%	22.4%	0.0%	1.96	1.62	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	8	19	85	23	8	2	100%	2.4	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.4%	4.19	4.34	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	8	19	85	23	8	2	100%	2.4	27.1%	9.4%	17.6%	2.4%	4.19	3.31	—
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.07	4.04	—
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.07	4.04	—
2024	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	18	17	70	303	82	24	6	94%	3.9	27.1%	7.9%	19.1%	2.0%	6.07	2.90	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
2025	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	4	4	7	31	10	7	0	100%	1.8	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.0%	5.14	3.24	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.09	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.09	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	23	23	119	499	140	40	12	100%	5.2	28.1%	8.0%	20.0%	2.4%	4.32	3.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	25	25	139	586	130	51	17	100%	5.5	22.2%	8.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.38	4.34	+1.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	109	460	104	39	14	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.27	+1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	107	451	102	38	13	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.4%	14.3%	3.0%	4.27	4.25	+1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	104	437	99	37	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.29	+1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	99	417	94	36	13	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.33	4.37	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	92	388	87	34	13	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	3.3%	4.43	4.50	+1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	83	352	77	32	12	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.5%	4.58	4.68	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	314	68	30	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.7%	4.76	4.88	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	66	277	59	27	11	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.9%	11.2%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	43	182	40	16	6	100%	5.4	22.2%	8.8%	13.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	56	236	53	20	7	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.2%	4.42	4.38	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	70	296	67	25	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.4%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.36	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	76	321	73	27	10	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.39	4.40	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	78	329	74	28	11	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.3%	4.45	4.49	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	76	321	72	28	11	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	3.5%	4.55	4.62	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	66	27	11	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.71	4.81	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	65	274	59	26	11	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.9%	4.90	5.02	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	58	245	52	24	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.9%	11.2%	4.2%	5.12	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	593	2505	557	223	87	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.3%	3.5%	4.59	4.26	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	75	29	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.3%	3.5%	4.59	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		76	73	296	1260	263	134	25	96%	3.9	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.0%	4.14	3.77	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	49	200	851	178	90	17	96%	3.9	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.0%	4.14	3.77	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 119 IPFIP 3.07 → 4.09 (+1.03)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.06%	—	×0.770	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.150	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 7 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.46 (+1.22)K% 32.3% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.740	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.58%	—	×1.180	26.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.842	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 70 IPFIP 2.90 → 4.04 (+1.13)K% 27.1% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.740	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.180	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.979	×1.300	2.63%

Result: FIP 2.90 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 19 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.34 (+1.05)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.680	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.250	11.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.383	×1.400	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 177).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Yankees · 41 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.80 (+1.18)K% 32.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.18%	—	×0.680	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×1.250	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.066	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Yankees 1 · 40 IPFIP 2.07 → 3.13 (+1.06)K% 27.4% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.680	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.250	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.231	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.07 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Serna (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.29	22.5%	13.9%	354	-0.18	—	—	—
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	88
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	86
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	86
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	86
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	85
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	85
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	84
Joey Murray R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP	3.58	23.4%	9.9%	2.2%	.285	6.12	20.0%	4.6%	21	+2.54	3.58	170	84
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.8%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	5.95	19.1%	3.2%	168	+1.93	4.02	412	83
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.03	23.9%	14.9%	424	+0.20	3.72	709	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	83
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.51	19.0%	11.8%	445	+0.39	4.12	747	83
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	83
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	83
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	83
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.06	18.1%	9.6%	296	+0.01	3.86	496	82
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	101	22.2%	8.9%	1.23	4.45
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*