Luis Serna
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
+0.4
WAR
Age 22
RHP
5'11" / 162 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.6%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 1 | 12 | 11 | 40 | 168 | 46 | 17 | 0 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 3.13 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 11 | 10 | 41 | 174 | 56 | 17 | 0 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 1.96 | 2.80 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 8 | 8 | 19 | 85 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 18 | 17 | 70 | 303 | 82 | 24 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 6.07 | 4.04 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 4 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 2 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 13 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYY | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 68 | 281 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.65 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYY | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 22 | 8 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 22 | 8 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 61 | 21 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 52 | 188 | 801 | 169 | 89 | 10 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.39 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 55 | 200 | 851 | 179 | 95 | 11 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 3.87 | 3.39 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Serna (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 24.1% | 15.5% | 181 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 94 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 93 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 92 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 92 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 91 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 91 |
| Parker Curry R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| John Russell R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 90 |
| RJ Petit R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 90 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .331 | 4.70 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.12 | 3.58 | 539 | 90 |
| Sam Bragg R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.98 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 203 | +0.72 | 3.26 | 277 | 90 |
| Chay Yeager R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.18 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 110 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 89 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 89 |
| Darin Gillies R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.71 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 295 | 88 |
| Ronnie Muck R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.64 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 75 | +1.43 | 3.21 | 137 | 88 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.38 | 3.57 | 281 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$8M | ||