Garrett Horn

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	14	14	41	3.27	2.52	32.5%	11.8%	—	K 22.0% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.45
2026	23	MIX2 levels	6	5	17	2.70	4.18	28.4%	14.9%	—	K 28.4% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	10	10	57	4.77	4.77	23.2%	13.1%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	4	4	25	4.66	4.62	23.6%	12.1%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	6	6	38	4.60	4.57	23.8%	11.8%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsT.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Jimmy Robbins (age 24) · Evan Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%23.2%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.6%	8.4%	0.9%	3.27	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	22.0%	13.6%	8.4%	0.9%	3.27	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	41	169	55	20	2	100%	3.0	32.5%	11.8%	20.7%	1.2%	3.27	2.52	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	17	67	19	10	2	83%	2.8	28.4%	14.9%	13.4%	3.0%	2.70	4.23	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	17	67	19	10	2	83%	2.8	28.4%	14.9%	13.4%	3.0%	2.70	4.23	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	17	67	19	10	2	83%	2.8	28.4%	14.9%	13.4%	3.0%	2.70	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	10	10	57	241	56	32	7	100%	5.7	23.2%	13.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	244	58	30	7	100%	5.8	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.61	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	244	58	29	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	11.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.59	4.56	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	57	240	57	28	7	100%	6.3	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.59	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	25	106	25	13	3	100%	6.2	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.62	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	38	160	38	19	5	100%	6.3	23.8%	11.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.57	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	44	186	44	22	6	100%	6.3	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.60	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	453	107	54	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	101	24	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		20	19	58	236	56	33	3	95%	2.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	1.5%	3.10	3.67	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	66	200	814	194	114	12	95%	2.9	23.8%	14.0%	9.8%	1.5%	3.10	3.67	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Horn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	23.2%	13.1%	2.9%	—	4.59	23.7%	11.8%	172	-0.18	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	78
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	78
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	75
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	74
Cooper Hjerpe L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	27.5%	14.7%	1.8%	.257	3.67	29.7%	10.7%	46	+0.06	3.61	139	73
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	73
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	71
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	71
Hogan Harris L 2022 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP	3.71	27.4%	14.7%	1.9%	.274	4.46	20.9%	9.6%	328	+0.75	3.09	501	71
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	69
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	69
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	68
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	68
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	68
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	67
Nate Savino L 2024 · 5.85 FIP	22	SP	5.85	16.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.244	4.83	14.9%	2.0%	130	-1.02	4.26	176	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	23.6%	12.2%	1.12	4.65
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*