Brody Brecht — OGILVIE

Brody Brecht P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%27.9%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD2035

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	27.2%	15.9%	11.2%	1.3%	2.51	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	27.2%	15.9%	11.2%	1.3%	2.51	3.52	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	61	263	95	35	2	100%	3.0	36.1%	13.3%	22.8%	0.8%	2.51	2.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	26.5%	19.2%	7.4%	0.0%	5.23	3.29	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	26.5%	19.2%	7.4%	0.0%	5.23	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	7	7	21	90	31	15	0	100%	3.0	34.4%	16.7%	17.8%	0.0%	5.23	2.30	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	8	34	10	6	1	100%	8.2	27.9%	16.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	29	124	41	21	1	—	—	32.6%	16.7%	15.9%	0.8%	5.10	3.71	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	118	499	139	73	14	100%	5.6	27.9%	14.7%	13.1%	2.8%	4.60	4.52	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	138	581	162	78	16	100%	5.7	27.8%	13.5%	14.3%	2.8%	4.45	4.37	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	150	632	175	83	18	100%	6.0	27.7%	13.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.34	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	25	25	148	623	172	81	18	100%	5.9	27.6%	13.1%	14.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	143	604	166	80	18	100%	6.0	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	137	577	157	78	18	100%	5.9	27.2%	13.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	128	543	146	75	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	13.8%	13.1%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	506	134	71	18	100%	6.0	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	111	468	122	68	18	100%	6.2	26.0%	14.5%	11.5%	3.8%	5.06	5.19	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	51	215	60	32	7	100%	5.7	27.9%	14.7%	13.1%	3.2%	4.83	4.75	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	91	384	107	52	12	100%	5.7	27.8%	13.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.60	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	119	502	139	66	16	100%	6.0	27.7%	13.1%	14.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.57	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	126	532	147	70	17	100%	6.0	27.6%	13.1%	14.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.61	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	127	536	147	71	18	100%	6.0	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.71	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	124	524	142	70	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	13.5%	13.8%	3.6%	4.78	4.85	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	118	498	134	69	19	100%	5.9	26.9%	13.8%	13.1%	3.8%	4.95	5.05	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	112	473	125	67	19	100%	5.9	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	4.1%	5.15	5.27	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	104	439	114	64	19	100%	6.1	26.0%	14.5%	11.5%	4.4%	5.38	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	163	972	4105	1116	559	147	100%	6.0	27.2%	13.6%	13.6%	3.6%	4.84	4.50	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	230	115	30	100%	6.0	27.2%	13.6%	13.6%	3.6%	4.84	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		27	27	82	353	95	59	3	100%	3.0	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	0.9%	3.20	3.46	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	66	200	864	233	145	8	100%	3.0	27.0%	16.8%	10.2%	0.9%	3.20	3.46	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Brecht (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	27.9%	16.8%	2.8%	—	4.40	27.8%	14.1%	406	-0.38	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	80
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	77
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	75
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	74
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	23.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	4.02	18.6%	7.6%	240	-0.37	3.71	535	74
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	73
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	73
Griff McGarry R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	29.0%	15.2%	2.9%	.252	4.14	25.9%	8.4%	157	-0.06	2.46	278	72
Carlos Tavera R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	25.4%	15.9%	4.0%	.285	5.36	18.9%	3.9%	180	+0.22	3.91	263	72
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	71
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	71
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	70
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.98	23.0%	11.5%	227	-0.43	3.29	461	70
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	70
Clayton Beeter R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	30.0%	14.5%	3.7%	.327	4.02	26.1%	12.3%	217	-0.40	2.69	395	70
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	69
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	69
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	69
Jack Leiter R 2023 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP	5.52	25.4%	14.7%	4.9%	.294	4.13	23.5%	13.5%	344	-1.39	3.90	519	69
Yoendrys Gómez R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	23.1%	14.9%	2.5%	.268	4.26	22.3%	11.8%	266	-0.17	3.19	509	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	128	27.3%	13.9%	1.18	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12