Brody Brecht
P
Spokane Indians
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%27.9%
BB%15.5%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 61 | 263 | 95 | 35 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 27.2% | 15.9% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 2.51 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 61 | 263 | 95 | 35 | 2 | 100% | 3.0 | 36.1% | 13.3% | 22.8% | 0.8% | 2.51 | 2.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 7 | 7 | 21 | 90 | 31 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 26.5% | 19.2% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 5.23 | 3.29 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 76 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.9% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.9% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 85 | 364 | 107 | 57 | 8 | — | — | 29.5% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 4.78 | 4.31 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 27.9% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 139 | 69 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.9% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 162 | 74 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.8% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 175 | 79 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 172 | 77 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 166 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.4% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 157 | 74 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.2% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 146 | 71 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.9% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 134 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 60 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.9% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 91 | 384 | 107 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.8% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 139 | 63 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 147 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 147 | 67 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.4% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 142 | 67 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.2% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 134 | 65 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.9% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 125 | 64 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 5.08 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 146 | 869 | 3668 | 1002 | 471 | 129 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.35 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 231 | 108 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 82 | 353 | 95 | 59 | 4 | 100% | 3.0 | 27.0% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.1% | 3.20 | 3.55 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 66 | 200 | 864 | 233 | 145 | 10 | 100% | 3.0 | 27.0% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.1% | 3.20 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brody Brecht (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 27.9% | 15.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.32 | 27.8% | 14.8% | 406 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 80 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 77 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 77 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 76 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.71 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.16 | 3.55 | 405 | 76 |
| Jacob Odle R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 74 |
| Lyon Richardson R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 23.7% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .299 | 4.16 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 247 | -0.30 | 3.84 | 542 | 74 |
| Griff McGarry R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.41 | 29.0% | 15.2% | 3.3% | .252 | 4.17 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 157 | -0.24 | 2.46 | 273 | 73 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 73 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 73 |
| Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.08 | 25.4% | 15.9% | 3.9% | .285 | 5.29 | 19.2% | 3.3% | 180 | +0.21 | 4.12 | 263 | 72 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 72 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 72 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 72 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 72 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 72 |
| Keyner Martinez R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.80 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 162 | 71 |
| Clayton Beeter R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 30.0% | 14.5% | 3.6% | .327 | 4.09 | 27.1% | 12.0% | 217 | -0.27 | 2.80 | 374 | 71 |
| Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.31 | 21.0% | 13.3% | 2.4% | .266 | 3.93 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 227 | -0.38 | 3.33 | 475 | 71 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 130 | 27.4% | 13.1% | 1.16 | 4.46 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |