Brody Brecht
P
Spokane Indians
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.3%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%13.4%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 20 | 20 | 61 | 263 | 95 | 35 | 2 | 27.2% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 2.51 | 3.49 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 2 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 24.3% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 61 | 258 | 67 | 28 | 7 | 25.8% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 59 | 23 | 7 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 24.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | COL | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | COL | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | COL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 67 | 288 | 81 | 45 | 3 | 28.3% | 15.6% | 1.1% | 2.83 | 3.30 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 66 | 200 | 864 | 243 | 135 | 9 | 28.3% | 15.6% | 1.1% | 2.83 | 3.30 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brody Brecht (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 24.3% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.13 | 25.0% | 15.2% | 172 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 95 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 93 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.74 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.34 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.60 | 3.74 | 203 | 90 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.63 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.41 | 152 | 90 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .310 | 3.28 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.70 | 2.72 | 192 | 90 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.33 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.54 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.21 | 3.33 | 223 | 89 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.90 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.80 | 4.10 | 168 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 89 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 88 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 88 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.37 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 1.89 | 34.6% | 25.2% | 68 | -1.48 | 1.89 | 191 | 88 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 88 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 87 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 87 |
| Alfredo Zarraga R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.78 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 138 | 87 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 87 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 87 |
| Jack Ralston R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.56 | 28.0% | 14.9% | 1.7% | .270 | 4.44 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 124 | +0.88 | 3.56 | 248 | 87 |
| Steven Wilson R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 86 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$7M | ||