Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 11 | 9 | 35 | 162 | 33 | 18 | 2 | 82% | 3.2 | 13.9% | 13.9% | -0.0% | 1.7% | 5.40 | 4.64 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 11 | 9 | 35 | 162 | 33 | 18 | 2 | 82% | 3.2 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 5.40 | 3.50 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 12 | 11 | 48 | 194 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 92% | 4.0 | 17.5% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 2.08 | 3.81 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 12 | 11 | 48 | 194 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 92% | 4.0 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 0.5% | 2.08 | 2.66 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 6 | 6 | 27 | 119 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 6.07 | 4.36 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 6 | 6 | 27 | 119 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 6.07 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 9 | 9 | 24 | 96 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 2.6 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 3.42 | 4.84 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 9 | 9 | 24 | 96 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 2.6 | 30.2% | 9.4% | 20.8% | 3.1% | 3.42 | 3.44 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 47 | 191 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 0.6% | 2.49 | 3.18 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 15 | 47 | 191 | 49 | 18 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 25.7% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 0.5% | 2.49 | 2.44 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 67 | 282 | 82 | 37 | 6 | 95% | 3.4 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.48 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 67 | 282 | 82 | 37 | 6 | 95% | 3.4 | 29.1% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 3.48 | 3.47 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 95 | 398 | 103 | 46 | 14 | 75% | 3.4 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 95 | 398 | 103 | 46 | 14 | 75% | 3.4 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 3.71 | 4.30 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 20 | 109 | 477 | 122 | 48 | 15 | 57% | 3.1 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 20 | 109 | 477 | 122 | 48 | 15 | 57% | 3.1 | 25.6% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.97 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 44 | 0 | 54 | 236 | 44 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 77 | 39 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 77 | 39 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 139 | 596 | 121 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 20.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 4.28 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 139 | 588 | 121 | 60 | 23 | — | — | 20.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 4.28 | 4.80 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 134 | 0 | 141 | 596 | 124 | 63 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 134 | 0 | 141 | 596 | 123 | 64 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 128 | 0 | 135 | 569 | 115 | 63 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 128 | 0 | 134 | 566 | 118 | 60 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 128 | 0 | 134 | 566 | 117 | 61 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 122 | 0 | 128 | 540 | 109 | 59 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 5.32 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 530 | 9 | 612 | 2609 | 537 | 275 | 103 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.86 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 3 | 200 | 853 | 176 | 90 | 34 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 180 | 110 | 505 | 2155 | 453 | 254 | 54 | 61% | 2.8 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 4.21 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 44 | 200 | 853 | 179 | 101 | 22 | 61% | 2.8 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yoendrys Gómez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 3.4% | — | 5.27 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 417 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 79 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 77 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 76 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 75 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 75 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 75 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 74 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 74 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 74 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 74 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 73 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 73 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 73 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 73 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 73 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 139 | 21.1% | 11.0% | 1.47 | 5.09 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |