Brandon Clarke

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#295ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	14	14	38	4.03	2.07	34.5%	15.5%	—	K 24.0% · BB 20.8% · FIP 3.71
2026	23	MIX4 levels	10	10	30	3.34	2.73	36.4%	14.0%	—	K 28.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.43
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	1	4	4.67	4.67	29.0%	16.7%	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBSTL	7	7	42	4.40	4.31	28.8%	14.6%	0.5
2029PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBSTL	11	11	66	4.32	4.27	28.6%	14.1%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCooper Hjerpe (age 23) · Hogan Harris (age 25) · Evan Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%29.0%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	34.5%	15.5%	19.0%	0.0%	4.03	2.07	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	36.4%	14.0%	22.3%	1.7%	3.34	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	1	4	17	5	3	0	100%	4.0	29.0%	16.7%	12.2%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	94	396	114	58	11	100%	5.9	28.8%	14.6%	14.2%	2.8%	4.51	4.42	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	410	117	58	11	100%	6.1	28.6%	14.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	93	393	111	54	11	100%	5.8	28.3%	13.8%	14.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	374	105	52	11	100%	5.9	28.0%	13.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	347	96	49	11	100%	5.9	27.8%	14.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	74	315	86	45	10	100%	6.2	27.4%	14.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.80	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	66	280	76	41	10	100%	6.0	27.0%	14.7%	12.3%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	51	26	5	100%	6.0	28.8%	14.6%	14.2%	2.6%	4.40	4.31	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	66	279	80	39	7	100%	6.0	28.6%	14.1%	14.6%	2.6%	4.32	4.27	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	73	308	87	43	8	100%	6.1	28.3%	13.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.30	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	89	44	9	100%	6.2	28.0%	13.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.38	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	84	43	9	100%	6.0	27.8%	14.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.50	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	67	283	78	41	9	100%	6.1	27.4%	14.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.67	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	61	258	70	38	8	100%	6.1	27.0%	14.7%	12.3%	3.3%	4.74	4.86	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	456	1925	538	272	55	100%	6.0	27.9%	14.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.09	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	236	119	24	100%	6.0	27.9%	14.2%	13.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		24	24	68	295	76	53	2	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	71	200	872	224	157	6	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 18 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.43 (+1.13)K% 36.5% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.49%	—	×0.770	28.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.16%	—	×1.150	13.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 5.81 → 7.60 (+1.79)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.180	29.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.64%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.81 → 7.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 28 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.71 (+0.95)K% 31.2% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.16%	—	×0.770	23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.12%	—	×1.150	20.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.117	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 10 IPFIP -0.18 → 0.98 (+1.16)K% 47.2% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.22%	—	×0.740	34.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.180	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.18 → 0.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Clarke (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.40	28.6%	14.4%	284	-0.27	—	—	—
Cooper Hjerpe L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	27.5%	14.7%	1.8%	.257	3.67	29.7%	10.7%	46	+0.06	3.61	139	73
Hogan Harris L 2022 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP	3.71	27.4%	14.7%	1.9%	.274	4.46	20.9%	9.6%	328	+0.75	3.09	501	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	71
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	68
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	68
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	67
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	67
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	66
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	66
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	65
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	65
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	64
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	64
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	64
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	63
Max Fried L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	24	SP-	3.49	24.6%	11.9%	1.7%	.326	3.21	23.9%	17.4%	387	-0.28	2.51	1,448	63
Ethan Small L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	24.2%	14.5%	1.6%	.282	4.00	23.2%	10.7%	154	+0.24	1.13	248	62
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	61
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	61
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	86	28.2%	14.5%	1.15	4.56
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*