Brandon Clarke
P
FCL Cardinals
Age 23
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113123vR 132
ERA5.00
FIP5.00
K%26.3%
BB%17.9%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 38 | 174 | 60 | 27 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 24.0% | 20.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 4.03 | 3.71 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 38 | 174 | 60 | 27 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 34.5% | 15.5% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 4.03 | 2.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.7 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 72 | 49 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.3% | 17.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.3% | 17.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 5.00 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 66 | 279 | 74 | 49 | 7 | — | — | 26.6% | 17.6% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 134 | 77 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.8% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 157 | 81 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.0% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.44 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 171 | 86 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 167 | 84 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.9% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 162 | 82 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 153 | 80 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 142 | 77 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.1% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 130 | 73 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 118 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 5.26 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 106 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 15.4% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.35 | 5.51 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 51 | 215 | 58 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.8% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 91 | 384 | 104 | 53 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.0% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.44 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 136 | 68 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 143 | 72 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 143 | 73 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.7% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 139 | 73 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 130 | 71 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.1% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 121 | 68 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.03 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 111 | 65 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 102 | 63 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 15.4% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.34 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 179 | 1068 | 4509 | 1185 | 639 | 140 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.3% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.38 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 222 | 120 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.3% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 40 | 179 | 44 | 36 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 24.4% | 20.3% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 76 | 200 | 903 | 221 | 183 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 24.4% | 20.3% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Clarke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 26.3% | 17.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.49 | 26.9% | 12.7% | 406 | -0.51 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 75 |
| Caden Grice L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 70 |
| Doug Nikhazy L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.61 | 21.9% | 16.9% | 4.0% | .304 | 4.79 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 253 | -0.82 | 4.20 | 458 | 70 |
| Brent Killam L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.35 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .284 | 7.12 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.77 | 4.35 | 121 | 70 |
| Larson Kindreich L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 24.3% | 18.6% | 1.4% | .275 | 5.03 | 22.3% | 6.1% | 149 | +0.85 | 4.15 | 214 | 69 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 69 |
| Luis De La Torre L 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 3.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 173 | 69 |
| Xavier Rivas L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .229 | 5.34 | 28.7% | 15.4% | 64 | +0.47 | 4.87 | 150 | 69 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 68 |
| Hagen Smith L 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.82 | 29.9% | 16.7% | 3.9% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.82 | 128 | 68 |
| Noah Dean L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.50 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 2.2% | .216 | 5.77 | 21.1% | 1.3% | 74 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 217 | 68 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 68 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .383 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 227 | +0.11 | 2.40 | 382 | 67 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 67 |
| Ryan Webb L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.91 | 22.0% | 15.4% | 1.3% | .398 | 3.71 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 345 | -0.20 | 3.28 | 443 | 67 |
| Luis De León L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 316 | 66 |
| Dameivi Tineo L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.51 | 25.0% | 19.7% | 1.9% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 167 | 66 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 66 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 65 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.10 | 25.8% | 22.8% | 2.4% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 280 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 126 | 26.4% | 14.4% | 1.18 | 4.73 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |