Brandon Clarke — OGILVIE

Brandon Clarke P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%27.1%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL4045

CMD3540

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.2%	0.0%	4.03	3.71	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	38	174	60	27	0	100%	2.7	34.5%	15.5%	19.0%	0.0%	4.03	2.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	10	10	30	121	44	17	2	100%	3.0	28.1%	14.0%	14.1%	1.7%	3.34	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	STL	1	1	2	5	2	0	0	100%	1.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
2026	23	A RAW	STL	3	3	6	28	8	7	1	100%	1.9	28.6%	25.0%	3.6%	3.6%	6.35	5.81	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	5	5	18	74	27	9	1	100%	3.7	36.5%	12.2%	24.3%	1.4%	3.44	2.30	—
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	1	1	4	14	7	1	0	100%	4.0	50.0%	7.1%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.22	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	8	32	9	6	1	100%	7.6	27.1%	19.3%	7.7%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	37	153	53	23	3	—	—	34.4%	15.2%	19.3%	1.9%	3.70	3.77	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	118	499	138	82	13	100%	5.6	27.7%	16.4%	11.3%	2.7%	4.83	4.70	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	138	581	163	85	16	100%	5.7	28.0%	14.5%	13.4%	2.7%	4.58	4.44	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	632	177	90	17	100%	6.0	28.1%	14.2%	13.9%	2.7%	4.46	4.39	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	148	623	174	88	17	100%	5.9	27.9%	14.1%	13.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.43	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	143	604	168	86	17	100%	6.0	27.8%	14.2%	13.5%	2.9%	4.48	4.51	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	137	577	159	83	17	100%	5.9	27.5%	14.5%	13.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.64	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	128	543	148	80	17	100%	6.1	27.2%	14.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	120	506	136	76	17	100%	6.0	26.8%	15.1%	11.7%	3.4%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	468	123	73	17	100%	6.2	26.3%	15.5%	10.8%	3.7%	5.11	5.25	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	51	215	60	35	5	100%	5.7	27.7%	16.4%	11.3%	2.5%	4.73	4.60	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	91	384	107	56	10	100%	5.7	28.0%	14.5%	13.4%	2.5%	4.48	4.34	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	119	502	141	71	13	100%	6.0	28.1%	14.2%	13.9%	2.5%	4.36	4.29	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	126	532	148	75	14	100%	6.0	27.9%	14.1%	13.8%	2.6%	4.33	4.32	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	127	536	149	76	14	100%	6.0	27.8%	14.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	124	524	144	76	15	100%	5.9	27.5%	14.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.52	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	118	498	135	74	15	100%	5.9	27.2%	14.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.70	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	112	473	127	71	15	100%	5.9	26.8%	15.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.89	-0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	STL	17	17	104	439	116	68	15	100%	6.1	26.3%	15.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.97	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	163	972	4105	1128	603	115	100%	6.0	27.5%	14.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.18	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	232	124	24	100%	6.0	27.5%	14.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		24	24	68	295	76	53	2	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	71	200	872	224	157	6	100%	2.8	25.7%	18.0%	7.7%	0.7%	3.72	3.60	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Clarke (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	27.1%	19.3%	2.7%	—	4.50	27.9%	13.0%	406	-0.62	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	77
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.73	19.6%	8.6%	256	-0.66	4.16	461	72
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.24	24.9%	6.8%	152	-0.42	2.97	282	72
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	71
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	71
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	70
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	69
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	69
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	69
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	68
Maddux Bruns L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	21	SP	4.67	22.3%	18.0%	2.1%	.261	4.55	18.6%	-1.9%	93	-0.12	3.50	235	68
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	65
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	65
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	64
Kyle Harrison L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	27.6%	12.3%	4.3%	.280	3.91	24.1%	16.2%	347	-0.78	3.12	659	64
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	64
Seth Corry L 2021 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	24.3%	22.9%	1.5%	.327	4.45	18.8%	4.1%	91	-0.32	3.21	344	63
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	63
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	128	27.5%	15.1%	1.15	4.69
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45