Joel Díaz
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 208 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%17.3%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 195 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.4 | 22.0% | 5.8% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 1.98 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 195 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.4 | 32.3% | 4.6% | 27.7% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 1.13 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 16 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 62% | 3.5 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.86 | 5.57 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 16 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 62% | 3.5 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 4.26 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 74 | 329 | 71 | 28 | 12 | 85% | 3.7 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 4.48 | 7.55 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 74 | 329 | 71 | 28 | 12 | 85% | 3.7 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.48 | 4.42 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 18 | 107 | 448 | 98 | 24 | 9 | 72% | 4.3 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 18 | 107 | 448 | 98 | 24 | 9 | 72% | 4.3 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 3.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 11 | 7 | 33 | 163 | 30 | 30 | 3 | 64% | 3.0 | 15.0% | 22.3% | -7.4% | 1.8% | 8.27 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.3% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.58 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 97 | 437 | 77 | 49 | 11 | — | — | 17.7% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 5.82 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.3% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 128 | 541 | 106 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.33 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 157 | 664 | 140 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.18 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 162 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +2.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 165 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 162 | 48 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +2.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 157 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +2.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 148 | 47 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 137 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.48 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 125 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 114 | 44 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 4.77 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 63 | 266 | 52 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 98 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.18 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 131 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.09 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 144 | 42 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 147 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 144 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 138 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 129 | 43 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 119 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.67 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 108 | 41 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 4.76 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 224 | 1324 | 5588 | 1210 | 385 | 181 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +22.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 58 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 67 | 319 | 1382 | 230 | 141 | 49 | 77% | 3.7 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.93 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 42 | 200 | 866 | 144 | 88 | 31 | 77% | 3.7 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.19 | 20.9% | 14.4% | 460 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 90 |
| Zack Lee R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.41 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .293 | 5.18 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 130 | +1.77 | 3.41 | 213 | 88 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 88 |
| Nick Payero R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 87 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 87 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 86 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Wil Jensen R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 86 |
| Logan Martin R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.93 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 121 | +0.54 | 3.93 | 223 | 86 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.67 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.9% | 15.2% | 298 | +0.46 | 1.63 | 606 | 85 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.28 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 131 | -0.16 | 3.95 | 229 | 85 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 85 |
| Max Gamboa R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.92 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 2.0% | .334 | 4.02 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.10 | 3.92 | 162 | 85 |
| Angel Araiza R 2029 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 84 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 3.93 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.53 | 3.93 | 138 | 84 |
| Tyler Davis R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .349 | 4.39 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 196 | -0.45 | 4.17 | 294 | 84 |
| Miguel Almonte R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.94 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .300 | 4.40 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 143 | +0.46 | 3.02 | 247 | 84 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 84 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .335 | 3.97 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 357 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 150 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 4.31 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel ('23) | 9 | 132 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |