Joel Díaz — OGILVIE

Joel Díaz P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%17.3%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3555

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$8M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$12M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.0M
Totals		$30M		$42M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	15	15	50	195	63	9	0	100%	3.4	22.0%	5.8%	16.2%	0.0%	0.54	1.98	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	15	15	50	195	63	9	0	100%	3.4	32.3%	4.6%	27.7%	0.0%	0.54	1.13	—
2022	18	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	16	10	55	247	51	25	7	62%	3.5	15.3%	11.9%	3.3%	3.9%	5.86	5.45	—
2022	18	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	16	10	55	247	51	25	7	62%	3.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.8%	5.86	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	6.3%	4.48	6.63	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	6.3%	4.48	6.63	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	74	329	71	28	12	85%	3.7	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.42	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.74	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	16.8%	6.2%	10.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.74	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	25	18	107	448	98	24	9	72%	4.3	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.80	3.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	19	14	56	263	51	41	4	74%	2.9	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	1.7%	6.75	5.01	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	19	14	56	263	51	41	4	74%	2.9	15.7%	18.2%	-2.5%	1.7%	6.75	5.01	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	NYM	2	1	2	12	1	1	1	50%	1.0	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	8.3%	18.00	8.03	—
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	4	3	6	30	5	5	0	75%	1.6	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	7.11	3.80	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	13	10	48	221	45	35	3	77%	3.7	20.4%	15.8%	4.5%	1.4%	6.23	4.13	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	8	35	6	2	1	100%	4.1	17.3%	7.1%	10.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	64	298	57	43	5	—	—	19.2%	14.6%	4.6%	1.7%	6.47	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	134	564	111	38	17	100%	5.3	19.6%	6.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.41	4.32	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	163	688	145	46	20	100%	5.6	21.0%	6.7%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.17	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	175	739	162	49	22	100%	5.8	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.08	+1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	175	739	165	49	22	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.6%	15.8%	2.9%	4.08	4.04	+1.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	728	162	48	22	100%	5.9	22.3%	6.6%	15.7%	3.0%	4.08	4.07	+1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	28	28	167	706	157	48	22	100%	6.0	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	160	674	148	47	22	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.0%	14.9%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	150	634	137	46	22	100%	6.0	21.6%	7.3%	14.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.47	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	140	591	125	45	22	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.7%	13.5%	3.7%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	130	547	114	44	21	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	3.9%	4.76	4.89	+0.0
2037	33	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	119	502	102	43	21	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	4.2%	4.99	5.14	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	66	279	55	19	8	100%	5.5	19.6%	6.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.41	4.32	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	114	481	101	32	14	100%	5.7	21.0%	6.7%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.17	+1.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	142	600	131	39	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.08	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	153	646	144	42	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	6.6%	15.8%	2.9%	4.08	4.04	+1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	156	659	147	44	20	100%	6.0	22.3%	6.6%	15.7%	3.0%	4.08	4.07	+1.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	154	650	144	44	20	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	3.1%	4.13	4.16	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	149	629	138	44	20	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.0%	14.9%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	141	595	129	44	20	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.3%	14.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.47	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	133	562	119	43	20	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.7%	13.5%	3.6%	4.54	4.66	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	123	519	108	42	20	100%	6.2	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	3.9%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2037	33	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	113	477	97	41	20	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	4.2%	4.98	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		244	244	1443	6092	1312	434	200	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.33	3.98	+15.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	182	60	28	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.33	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		95	74	343	1482	247	152	45	78%	3.6	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.66	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	43	200	865	144	89	26	78%	3.6	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.66	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	17.3%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.18	20.9%	14.3%	472	-0.39	—	—	—
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	87
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	87
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	87
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	84
Erik Swanson R 2016 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP-	3.56	17.1%	8.8%	1.5%	.316	4.11	20.9%	15.2%	298	+0.55	1.60	606	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Brock Stewart R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.9%	6.4%	3.2%	.343	3.46	20.9%	14.1%	304	-0.71	1.51	618	84
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	83
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	83
Alex Eubanks R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.85	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.27	3.85	219	83
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	148	21.3%	7.1%	1.25	4.34
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01