Joel Díaz
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
+1.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 208 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.3 · 2031
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%11.8%
IP107
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2031
K†4555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 195 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 22.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.54 | 1.98 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 16 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 5.86 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 20 | 17 | 74 | 329 | 71 | 28 | 12 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 4.48 | 6.46 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 18 | 107 | 448 | 98 | 24 | 9 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.76 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 2 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 89 | 36 | 14 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 114 | 487 | 98 | 45 | 14 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.19 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 116 | 42 | 16 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 150 | 633 | 137 | 47 | 19 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 164 | 692 | 152 | 51 | 20 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 160 | 53 | 21 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 163 | 54 | 22 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 31 | 31 | 173 | 730 | 162 | 54 | 22 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 31 | 31 | 169 | 714 | 157 | 53 | 22 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 164 | 692 | 151 | 52 | 21 | 21.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 158 | 668 | 144 | 51 | 21 | 21.6% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 137 | 50 | 21 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 129 | 49 | 20 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 120 | 48 | 20 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 111 | 46 | 19 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 61 | 294 | 1255 | 215 | 113 | 40 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.53 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 41 | 200 | 854 | 146 | 77 | 27 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 3.92 | 4.53 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 21.5% | 14.0% | 445 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Colin Peluse R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 94 |
| Logan Workman R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 93 |
| Blake Money R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 93 |
| Chris McMahon R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .330 | 5.28 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 85 | +1.32 | 3.96 | 199 | 93 |
| Mason Adams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 93 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 93 |
| Jason Bahr R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 93 |
| Wil Jensen R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 93 |
| Colton Eastman R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 92 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 92 |
| James Hicks R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 92 |
| Reid Johnston R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 92 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 91 |
| Ty Langenberg R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 2.0% | .325 | 3.82 | 16.2% | 4.6% | 105 | +0.29 | 3.53 | 213 | 91 |
| Grant Rogers R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 91 |
| Ryan Gallagher R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.34 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | .304 | 4.08 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 14 | -0.26 | 4.08 | 135 | 91 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 90 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 90 |
| Jack Mahoney R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .307 | 4.57 | 13.9% | 3.2% | 105 | +0.67 | 3.90 | 225 | 90 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.2 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.2 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.1 | $21M | +$16M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.9 | $19M | +$12M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +1.7 | $18M | +$8M |
| Totals | $24M | $120M | +$96M | ||