Ryan Prager — OGILVIE

Ryan Prager P Hill City Howlers

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%23.3%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	2	2	4	23	7	3	0	100%	2.2	30.4%	13.0%	17.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.18	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	2	2	4	23	7	3	0	100%	2.2	30.4%	13.0%	17.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.18	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	2	2	4	23	7	3	0	100%	2.2	30.4%	13.0%	17.4%	0.0%	4.15	1.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	12	71	304	93	42	8	52%	3.1	23.1%	16.1%	7.0%	3.6%	3.93	5.20	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	23	12	71	304	93	42	8	52%	3.1	23.1%	16.1%	7.0%	3.6%	3.93	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CLE	2	0	4	19	4	3	0	0%	2.0	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	4.50	3.32	—
2026	23	A RAW	CLE	21	12	67	285	89	39	8	57%	3.2	31.2%	13.7%	17.5%	2.8%	3.90	3.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	71	301	72	34	9	100%	5.5	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	72	304	74	32	9	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.49	4.41	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	72	304	74	32	9	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	71	300	73	32	9	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	69	291	70	31	9	100%	6.3	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	66	278	67	30	9	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.64	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	62	261	62	29	9	100%	6.2	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	5	5	30	127	30	14	4	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	48	203	49	22	6	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.49	4.41	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	57	241	59	25	7	100%	5.7	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	63	27	8	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	61	258	62	28	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	60	253	61	28	8	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.64	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	57	241	57	27	8	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	374	1579	381	171	49	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.15	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	204	91	26	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		25	14	75	327	77	52	11	56%	3.0	23.6%	15.9%	7.7%	3.4%	3.94	4.98	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	37	200	868	205	138	29	56%	3.0	23.6%	15.9%	7.7%	3.4%	3.94	4.98	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Prager (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	23.3%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.45	24.2%	13.3%	215	-0.32	—	—	—
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	81
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	80
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	79
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	78
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	77
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	76
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	75
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	74
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	73
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	73
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	73
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	73
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	72
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	72
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	71
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	71
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	64	24.1%	10.9%	1.20	4.54
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22