Ben Hess

P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 255 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #136MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP50ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	103	3.22	2.12	33.0%	10.9%	—	K 25.9% · BB 12.4% · FIP 2.98
2026	23	AANYY	16	16	57	4.45	4.00	25.5%	11.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	16	16	90	4.61	4.61	23.9%	12.8%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYY	8	8	49	4.59	4.53	24.2%	11.6%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBNYY	14	14	83	4.53	4.49	24.3%	11.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control49Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Blake Wehunt (age 23) · Cade Smith (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%23.9%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	33.0%	10.9%	22.1%	0.7%	3.22	2.12	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	16	16	90	380	91	49	11	100%	5.6	23.9%	12.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	112	474	115	55	13	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	124	524	127	59	15	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.43	4.39	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	516	125	58	15	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	119	501	120	56	15	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.47	4.51	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	478	114	55	15	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.64	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	106	450	105	53	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	99	419	96	51	15	100%	5.8	23.0%	12.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	49	207	50	24	6	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	83	350	85	40	10	100%	5.9	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.53	4.49	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	95	401	97	45	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	101	48	13	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.58	4.62	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	99	48	14	100%	6.2	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	95	48	14	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	3.5%	4.84	4.94	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	88	47	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	12.1%	10.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	613	2589	616	299	85	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.5%	12.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.35	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	201	98	28	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.5%	12.3%	3.3%	4.69	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		38	38	160	676	161	85	12	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	845	202	107	15	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hess (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	23.9%	12.8%	2.8%	—	4.42	24.2%	12.9%	359	-0.19	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	88
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	85
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	85
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	84
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	83
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	82
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	81
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	111	23.9%	11.7%	1.16	4.57
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45