Kahlil Watson

LF Columbus Clippers

Age 24 L/R 5'9" / 178 lbs AAA Svc 0.203 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AACLE	407	.220/.307/.407	16	15	61	—	.189/.257/.341
2025	22	AAA/AACLE	429	.250/.349/.467	16	17	82	—	.208/.290/.368
2026	23	AAACLE	442	.247/.363/.455	19	24	87	—	.215/.308/.370
2026	23	MLBCLE	91	.239/.264/.341	1	9	68	-0.6
2027PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBCLE	70	.221/.299/.368	2	3	89	-0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBCLE	249	.223/.302/.375	7	12	91	0.1
2029PROJ54% MLB	26	MLBCLE	256	.224/.303/.378	8	12	93	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.203First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV80

BB%77

Speed72

Chase%53

K%30

Z-Con%27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 75%

CompsParker Meadows (age 24) · Brett Wisely (age 24) · Joey Wiemer (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .299 / .368

PA70

HR2

K%30

BB%9

BABIP292

ISO143

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.209

POWER

Barrel%

427.1

Avg EV

5289.3

SPEED

Sprint

7128.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.203 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	42	33	13	3	2	0	8	7	1	4	1	394	524	606	1.130	212	500	17	19	491	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	358	324	75	16	5	9	27	127	4	16	3	231	299	395	694	164	346	35	8	307	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	18	11	3	2	0	1	5	5	1	0	0	273	529	727	1.257	455	333	28	28	493	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	341	285	61	13	0	12	43	92	8	25	3	214	333	386	719	172	263	27	13	323	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	359	79	15	2	16	42	125	3	15	9	220	307	407	714	187	285	31	10	317	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	176	149	38	7	1	8	22	47	3	10	2	255	362	477	839	221	312	27	12	368	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	253	219	54	13	5	8	26	72	5	7	5	247	340	461	801	215	326	28	10	350	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	91	88	21	6	0	1	3	32	0	9	1	239	264	341	605	102	364	35	3	270	68	-4	+1	+0	-6	+2	-0.6
2026	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	442	369	91	18	1	19	59	118	9	24	13	247	363	455	818	209	305	27	13	362	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	91	88	21	6	0	1	3	32	0	9	1	239	264	341	605	102	364	35	3	270	69	-3	+1	+0	-6	+2	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	42	36	10	2	1	0	5	10	1	4	1	278	381	389	770	111	406	24	12	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	358	331	53	10	3	6	20	179	4	16	3	160	217	263	480	103	307	50	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	18	13	3	2	0	1	3	7	1	0	0	231	412	615	1.027	385	242	39	17	402	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	341	295	54	12	0	9	33	114	8	25	3	183	283	315	598	132	244	33	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	370	70	13	2	13	31	155	3	15	9	189	257	341	598	151	272	38	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	176	155	31	5	1	5	16	59	3	10	2	200	287	342	629	142	280	34	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	253	225	48	11	5	6	20	93	5	7	5	213	292	387	679	173	313	37	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	91	88	21	6	0	1	3	32	0	9	1	239	264	341	605	102	364	35	3	268	68	-4	+1	+0	-6	+2	-0.6
2026	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	442	386	83	16	1	14	43	141	9	24	13	215	308	370	679	155	285	32	10	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	42	36	10	2	1	0	5	10	1	4	1	278	381	389	770	111	385	24	12	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	42	33	13	3	2	0	8	7	1	4	1	394	524	606	1.130	212	500	17	19	491	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	376	344	55	11	3	7	23	186	5	16	3	160	223	270	493	110	310	49	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	376	335	78	18	5	10	32	132	5	16	3	233	309	406	715	173	345	35	9	316	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	341	295	54	12	0	9	33	114	8	25	3	183	283	315	598	132	254	33	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	341	285	61	13	0	12	43	92	8	25	3	214	333	386	719	172	263	27	13	323	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	370	70	13	2	13	31	155	3	15	9	189	257	341	598	151	278	38	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	359	79	15	2	16	42	125	3	15	9	220	307	407	714	187	285	31	10	317	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	429	380	80	16	6	12	36	152	8	17	7	211	292	379	671	168	309	35	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	429	368	92	20	6	16	48	119	8	17	7	250	349	467	816	217	321	28	11	357	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	533	474	103	22	1	15	46	173	9	33	14	217	299	363	662	146	303	32	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	533	457	112	24	1	20	62	150	9	33	14	245	346	433	779	188	316	28	12	346	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	42	36	10	2	1	0	5	10	1	4	1	278	381	389	770	111	406	24	12	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	376	345	55	11	3	7	23	186	5	16	3	159	223	270	493	110	304	49	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	341	297	54	12	0	9	33	114	8	25	3	182	283	313	596	131	244	33	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	370	70	13	2	13	31	155	3	15	9	189	257	341	598	151	272	38	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	429	382	80	16	6	12	36	152	8	17	7	209	292	377	669	168	299	35	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	533	473	103	22	1	15	46	173	9	33	14	218	299	364	662	146	298	32	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	407	370	70	13	2	13	31	155	3	15	9	189	257	341	598	151	272	38	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	429	382	80	16	6	12	36	152	8	17	7	209	292	377	669	168	299	35	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	533	473	103	22	1	15	46	173	9	33	14	218	299	364	662	146	298	32	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	45%	380	339	76	15	2	11	32	112	6	18	4	220	299	369	668	148	292	29	8	299	89	-5	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	45%	70	63	14	3	0	2	6	21	1	3	1	221	299	368	667	147	292	30	9	299	89	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	51%	488	436	97	19	2	14	42	142	7	23	5	223	302	376	678	153	292	29	9	303	91	-5	+3	+0	-5	+11	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	475	424	94	18	2	14	41	136	7	22	5	224	303	379	682	155	292	29	9	305	93	-4	+2	+0	-5	+10	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	462	412	93	18	2	14	40	132	7	21	5	224	303	377	680	153	291	29	9	304	92	-4	+2	+0	-5	+10	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	450	402	89	17	2	13	39	128	6	19	4	223	302	374	675	151	289	28	9	302	91	-5	+2	-1	-5	+10	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	333	297	66	13	1	10	28	95	5	12	3	221	299	369	668	147	288	29	8	299	89	-4	+1	-1	-4	+7	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	321	287	63	12	1	9	27	92	4	9	2	218	295	360	655	142	285	29	8	294	85	-6	+1	-2	-3	+7	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	51%	249	222	49	10	1	7	21	72	4	12	3	223	302	375	677	152	292	29	8	303	91	-3	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	256	228	51	10	1	8	22	73	4	12	3	224	303	378	682	154	292	29	9	305	93	-2	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	250	222	50	10	1	7	22	71	4	11	3	224	303	377	680	152	291	28	9	304	92	-2	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	244	218	49	10	1	7	21	69	3	10	2	223	302	373	675	150	290	28	9	302	91	-3	+1	-0	-3	+5	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	177	158	36	7	1	5	15	50	2	6	2	222	300	368	668	146	288	28	8	299	89	-2	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	168	150	32	6	0	5	14	48	2	5	1	218	296	360	655	141	285	29	8	294	85	-3	+1	-1	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1435	1286	288	59	5	40	118	415	19	65	15	224	299	371	670	147	296	29	8	300	81	-19	+7	-2	-20	+31	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	130	27	2	18	53	188	9	29	7	223	298	369	667	146	295	29	8	300	81	-8	+3	-1	-9	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4812	4296	904	179	24	134	404	1561	72	223	63	210	289	357	646	146	292	32	8	288	81	-34	+14	-4	-34	+60	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	122	24	3	18	55	211	10	30	9	210	290	355	645	145	293	32	8	288	81	-8	+3	-1	-8	+14	0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 442 PAwOBA .356 → .297 (−59)K% 26.7% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.35%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.67%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.01%
Singles /BIP	21.12%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.004	×1.050	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×1.050	6.28%
Triples /BIP	0.40%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.004	×1.050	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	7.57%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .356 → .297; ISO .209 → .160; BABIP .305 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 253 PAwOBA .344 → .293 (−51)K% 28.5% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.46%	÷0.948	×1.220	—	—	36.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.28%	÷0.953	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.87%
HBP% /PA	1.98%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.75%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.004	×0.970	×0.983	×1.042	18.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.84%	÷0.986	×0.860	×0.983	×1.042	7.91%
Triples /BIP	3.40%	÷0.935	×0.950	×0.983	×1.042	3.54%
Home runs /BIP	5.44%	÷0.926	×0.780	—	×1.042	4.78%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 90, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .344 → .293; ISO .215 → .182; BABIP .326 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 176 PAwOBA .362 → .284 (−78)K% 26.7% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.70%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	33.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.94%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.68%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.979	×1.050	20.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.86%	÷1.064	×0.830	×0.979	×1.050	5.50%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.979	×1.050	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	7.84%	÷1.093	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .362 → .284; ISO .221 → .153; BABIP .312 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 407 PAwOBA .311 → .259 (−52)K% 30.7% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.71%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	38.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.32%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.68%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.66%
Singles /BIP	19.66%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.960	×1.050	19.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.944	×0.860	×0.960	×1.050	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.023	×0.950	×0.960	×1.050	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	6.84%	÷0.966	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.80%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .311 → .259; ISO .187 → .151; BABIP .285 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lake County Captains · 341 PAwOBA .320 → .267 (−53)K% 27.0% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.98%	÷1.028	×1.270	—	—	33.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.61%	÷0.971	×0.710	—	×1.042	9.60%
HBP% /PA	2.35%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.93%
Singles /BIP	18.65%	÷1.011	×0.920	×0.994	×1.042	17.58%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.994	×1.042	6.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.994	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.22%	÷1.060	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.89%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 102, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .320 → .267; ISO .172 → .138; BABIP .263 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AJupiter Hammerheads · 358 PAwOBA .301 → .213 (−88)K% 35.5% → 49.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.47%	÷0.967	×1.360	—	—	49.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.54%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.56%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.91%
Singles /BIP	22.84%	÷1.004	×0.920	×1.001	×1.045	21.90%
Doubles /BIP	8.12%	÷1.156	×0.830	×1.001	×1.045	6.10%
Triples /BIP	2.54%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.001	×1.045	2.10%
Home runs /BIP	4.57%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.98%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .301 → .213; ISO .164 → .107; BABIP .346 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 18 PAwOBA .510 → .402 (−108)K% 27.8% → 40.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷0.981	×1.440	—	—	40.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.78%	÷0.942	×0.620	—	×1.008	18.42%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	4.03%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.983	×0.820	—	×1.008	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.003	×0.720	—	×1.008	24.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.040	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷0.852	×0.780	—	×1.008	15.36%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 108, K 96, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .510 → .402; ISO .455 → .422; BABIP .333 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Marlins · 42 PAwOBA .480 → .363 (−117)K% 16.7% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.013	×1.440	—	—	23.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.05%	÷0.984	×0.620	—	×1.022	12.27%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.75%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷0.969	×0.820	—	×1.022	26.63%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷1.011	×0.720	—	×1.022	8.41%
Triples /BIP	7.69%	÷1.011	×0.720	—	×1.022	5.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 102, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .480 → .363; ISO .212 → .155; BABIP .500 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#3Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,505	42	69	225	296	373	-16	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	19	30	-7.1	-0.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Greg Briley'88-'93 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,670 PA	2.5	1,670	29	65	251*	309*	399*	-17	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	12	26	-6.8	-1.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kahlil Watson (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	218/297/365	147	292	4	7	29%	8%	89	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Parker Meadows 2024 · MLB	24	43→48	49→55	57→55	46	219/284/373	154	279	17	17	28%	8%	84	+0.2	234/303/394	160	302	16	20	26%	9%	96	+1.0	236/310/408	171	300	16	22	26%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	54→55	46	237/301/384	147	305	16	24	27%	8%	93	+0.8	233/299/358	125	300	12	15	25%	8%	86	+0.3	230/298/342	112	290	10	18	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Akil Baddoo 2024 · MLB	25	47→53	48→50	54→55	53	234/315/381	146	298	15	22	26%	11%	97	+1.1	217/292/370	153	288	15	25	28%	9%	87	+0.4	209/284/365	156	277	15	27	29%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	44	48→50	58→60	47	221/295/372	151	285	15	28	27%	8%	88	+0.5	208/279/348	140	290	14	25	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/263/324	133	273	13	24	33%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Bradley Zimmer 2017 · AAA	24	48→51	46→50	57→60	43	224/302/360	135	337	13	29	35%	8%	88	+0.5	233/296/372	139	347	14	26	34%	7%	88	+0.5	230/307/358	128	349	13	28	35%	7%	90	+0.3
✕Trey Sweeney 2024 · AA	24	42→45	47→50	54→55	49	213/293/347	134	271	14	19	26%	9%	82	+0.0	222/286/356	134	295	15	16	28%	8%	82	-0.0	219/281/356	137	291	16	15	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕John Rave 2023 · AAA	25	43→47	48→50	54→55	44	215/286/349	133	304	17	18	33%	9%	80	-0.2	216/282/348	132	295	14	16	30%	8%	78	-0.3	222/295/375	153	278	16	24	25%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	42→49	48→50	53→55	46	203/304/348	145	307	15	31	36%	10%	88	+0.4	226/298/380	154	322	18	24	33%	7%	92	+0.7	227/291/377	150	326	18	25	34%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Brett Jackson 2013 · MLB	24	45→53	50→55	56→55	43	215/293/379	164	335	16	20	38%	9%	89	+0.5	183/255/295	112	319	11	15	42%	8%	56	-1.9	156/228/236	80	277	7	12	43%	7%	30	-1.7
●Lawrence Butler 2024 · MLB	24	46→49	49→55	54→55	41	229/282/378	149	309	17	17	31%	7%	85	+0.2	240/304/416	176	298	22	19	26%	8%	102	+1.5	238/311/416	178	292	23	19	26%	10%	105	+1.7
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	45→55	47→50	55→60	42	216/281/357	141	323	14	30	36%	8%	80	-0.2	215/286/372	157	323	17	28	36%	9%	85	+0.2	205/281/368	163	302	19	30	36%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	44→48	48→50	54→55	43	220/290/366	146	298	15	19	30%	7%	86	+0.3	216/280/347	131	293	13	21	29%	7%	77	-0.3	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	43→53	49→50	63→60	43	217/282/372	156	302	15	30	32%	8%	83	+0.1	264/327/402	138	323	13	34	21%	7%	107	+1.8	277/340/401	125	327	11	37	18%	7%	111	+1.8
✕Leody Taveras 2022 · MLB	23	42→52	47→50	55	44	213/274/352	139	281	14	22	29%	8%	76	-0.4	244/295/382	138	310	13	19	25%	7%	91	+0.6	251/301/382	131	311	12	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Oswald Peraza 2024 · MLB	24	45→54	48→50	55→60	43	230/292/365	135	286	16	26	25%	6%	86	+0.3	213/280/329	116	277	14	23	27%	7%	73	-0.6	205/271/309	103	274	13	24	29%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Michael Hermosillo 2019 · MLB	24	47→49	46→55	50→55	43	228/301/359	131	310	13	19	29%	7%	88	+0.4	214/298/372	158	306	18	15	34%	7%	91	+0.6	191/279/356	165	255	22	16	33%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Derek Fisher 2018 · MLB	24	49→52	52→55	50→55	46	244/312/413	169	323	20	19	30%	8%	104	+1.6	228/306/400	172	325	21	16	34%	10%	99	+1.3	197/282/359	163	289	21	15	37%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	47→52	46→50	56→55	45	234/298/370	136	298	14	20	26%	7%	89	+0.5	231/287/369	138	287	13	16	23%	6%	84	+0.2	237/288/363	126	282	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.1

Kahlil Watson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps