Lawrence Butler — OGILVIE

Lawrence ButlerRF Athletics

Age 26 L/R 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB HR -4% Svc 2.186S2 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION274 act + 356 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 82103vR 112

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .312 / .392

PA356

HR11

SB10

K%27

BB%10

BABIP294

ISO161

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

5510.5%

xwOBA

570.317

POWER50

Barrel%

579.2

Avg EV

6890.4

Bat Spd

7273.7

EYE50

Chase%

8924.2%

SPEED45

Sprint

2626.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1172 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

234

938

—

wRC+

111

▶▶R

wOBA

289

331

▶R

ISO

174

190

▶R

BABIP

301

296

—

33.8%

24.8%

▶▶R

BB%

4.7%

9.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.186 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$3M
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.8	$13M	+$5M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.6	$11M	+$3M
2029	Ext	$9M	+1.3	$8M	+$1M
2030	Ext	$9M	+1.0	$6M	-$0.2M
2031	Ext	$9M	+0.6	$2M	-$4M
Totals		$51M		$41M	+$2M

Options · projected decision
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.4M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	124	113	16	2	1	1	11	62	0	3	1	142	218	204	421	62	300	50	9	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	124	106	24	4	2	1	18	43	0	3	1	226	339	330	669	104	371	35	15	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	450	405	86	19	4	11	39	191	1	29	5	212	283	360	644	148	361	42	9	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	450	385	105	24	4	19	59	146	1	29	5	273	371	504	875	231	382	32	13	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	405	370	78	18	3	11	32	169	0	19	6	211	274	365	638	154	347	42	8	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	2 teams	—	405	347	92	22	4	13	55	120	0	19	6	265	366	464	830	199	364	30	14	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	541	504	118	20	2	18	27	138	3	21	2	234	277	389	666	155	282	26	5	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	541	489	130	23	3	19	42	113	3	21	2	266	328	442	769	176	305	21	8	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	577	525	135	29	2	26	48	139	0	25	1	257	319	469	788	211	299	24	8	339	118	+11	+5	-3	-6	+16	2.4
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	—	577	522	136	30	2	26	51	133	0	25	1	261	326	475	801	215	300	23	9	350	126	+17	+5	-3	-6	+16	3.0
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	—	630	569	136	31	2	22	59	179	0	22	7	239	311	417	727	178	310	28	9	319	102	+2	+2	-0	-7	+18	1.4
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	—	630	569	133	30	2	21	59	179	0	22	7	234	306	404	710	170	304	28	9	316	100	-0	+2	-0	-7	+18	1.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	OAK	—	274	240	47	9	0	5	33	73	1	6	3	196	296	296	591	100	259	27	12	270	65	-11	+0	-1	-3	+8	-0.7
YTD	26	MLB	OAK	—	274	240	47	9	0	5	33	73	1	6	3	196	296	296	591	100	259	27	12	276	69	-10	+0	-1	-3	+8	-0.6
ROS	26	MLB	OAK	100%	356	316	73	16	1	11	36	96	1	10	4	231	312	392	704	161	293	27	10	315	99	-0	+0	+2	-4	+10	0.9
ROS	26	MLB	OAK	100%	356	316	73	16	1	11	36	96	1	10	4	231	312	392	704	161	290	27	10	310	96	-2	+0	+2	-4	+10	0.7
FULL	26	MLB	OAK	—	630	556	120	25	1	16	69	169	2	16	7	216	305	351	655	135	279	27	11	293	82	-13	+0	+1	-7	+18	0.0
TOT	26	MLB	OAK	—	630	556	120	25	1	16	69	169	2	16	7	216	305	351	655	135	279	27	11	296	84	-11	+0	+1	-7	+18	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	OAK	98%	625	554	131	29	2	20	65	168	1	18	6	236	318	404	722	168	297	27	10	318	101	+1	+1	+4	-7	+18	1.7
2028	28	MLB	OAK	98%	617	547	128	28	2	19	64	167	1	17	6	234	315	397	712	163	296	27	10	316	100	+0	+1	+3	-7	+17	1.6
2029	29	MLB	OAK	98%	605	536	123	27	1	18	63	165	1	15	5	229	312	384	696	155	295	27	10	314	99	-1	+1	+2	-6	+17	1.3
2030	30	MLB	OAK	98%	593	525	120	26	1	18	62	163	1	13	5	229	311	385	696	156	293	27	10	311	96	-3	+1	+2	-6	+17	1.0
2031	31	MLB	OAK	98%	578	511	115	25	1	17	61	161	1	11	4	225	309	378	687	153	289	28	11	306	92	-5	+1	+1	-6	+16	0.7
2032	32	MLB	OAK	98%	559	495	109	23	1	16	58	158	1	9	3	220	303	368	671	147	284	28	10	300	87	-8	+1	+0	-6	+16	0.3
2027	27	MLB	OAK	98%	612	543	126	27	2	19	63	165	1	17	6	232	313	394	707	162	294	27	10	313	98	-2	+1	+4	-7	+17	1.4
2028	28	MLB	OAK	98%	605	536	124	27	2	18	63	164	1	16	6	231	313	390	703	159	293	27	10	312	97	-2	+1	+3	-6	+17	1.3
2029	29	MLB	OAK	98%	593	525	120	26	1	18	62	162	1	15	5	229	311	385	696	156	292	27	10	310	95	-3	+1	+2	-6	+17	1.1
2030	30	MLB	OAK	98%	581	514	116	25	1	17	61	160	1	13	5	226	309	377	686	152	290	28	10	307	93	-5	+1	+2	-6	+16	0.8
2031	31	MLB	OAK	98%	566	501	111	24	1	16	59	158	1	11	4	222	305	369	674	148	287	28	10	302	89	-7	+1	+1	-6	+16	0.5
2032	32	MLB	OAK	98%	548	485	106	23	1	15	57	155	1	9	3	219	302	363	665	144	282	28	10	296	84	-10	+1	+0	-6	+16	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5071	4524	1043	226	13	161	499	1382	8	131	40	231	308	393	701	162	293	27	10	311	96	-23	+10	+11	-52	+144	9.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	134	29	2	21	64	177	1	17	5	231	309	397	705	166	294	27	10	311	96	-3	+1	+1	-7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	6660	5970	1368	293	23	208	625	1956	11	212	55	229	303	390	694	161	302	29	9	306	93	-55	+20	+12	-64	+189	10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	133	29	2	20	61	191	1	21	5	228	302	388	690	160	301	29	9	306	93	-5	+2	+1	-6	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	124	106	24	4	2	1	18	43	0	3	1	226	339	330	669	104	371	35	15	310	95	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2021	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	54	50	17	4	0	2	4	15	0	3	1	340	389	540	929	200	455	28	7	408	171	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2021	21	A	Stockton Ports	—	396	335	88	20	4	17	55	131	1	26	4	263	368	499	867	236	370	33	14	377	146	+21	+4	—	—	+11	3.6
2022	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	333	293	79	19	3	11	40	105	0	13	5	270	357	468	825	198	384	32	12	365	138	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2022	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	72	54	13	3	1	2	15	15	0	6	1	241	406	444	850	204	275	21	21	367	139	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	129	123	26	4	0	4	4	35	1	0	0	211	242	341	584	130	259	27	3	258	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2023	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	94	82	23	2	1	5	8	18	1	8	0	280	352	512	864	232	290	19	9	367	139	+4	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
2023	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	318	284	81	17	2	10	30	60	1	13	2	285	356	465	820	180	327	19	9	360	134	+12	+2	—	—	+9	2.3
2024	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	451	412	108	24	2	22	35	108	0	18	0	262	320	490	810	228	301	24	8	352	127	+14	+4	-3	-6	+13	2.2
2024	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	126	110	28	6	0	4	16	25	0	7	1	255	349	418	767	164	296	20	13	345	122	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	—	630	569	133	30	2	21	59	179	0	22	7	234	306	404	710	170	304	28	9	316	100	-0	+2	-0	-7	+18	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1210	1104	267	58	4	47	98	322	1	40	7	242	304	429	734	188	297	27	8	323	105	+7	+5	-3	-11	+34	3.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	11	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.7
#1Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	/162	664	24	17	252	326	437	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,619	181	148	232	306	397	-60	-18	8.8	9.1
	/162	664	21	17	232	306	397	-7.1	-2.1	1.0	pk7: 9
#3Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	11	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
	/162	664	19	6	262	304	417	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Eddie Rosariolast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,347 PA	10	4,347	169	65	262	298	450	-47	-39	7.0	8.7
	/162	664	26	10	262	298	450	-7.1	-6.0	1.1	pk7: 10
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lawrence Butler (OGILVIE)	26	50	50	45	50	216/305/351	135	279	16	16	27%	11%	84	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Dahl 2020 · MLB	26	48→54	52→55	46→55	43	243/295/413	171	305	18	8	27%	6%	98	+1.6	238/287/377	139	304	14	7	25%	6%	85	+0.7	237/289/389	152	296	17	6	25%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Travis Ishikawa 2010 · MLB	26	48→49	51→55	45	45	245/307/406	161	307	19	6	26%	8%	101	+1.8	244/309/378	134	311	13	6	24%	8%	94	+1.3	241/313/382	142	314	15	1	27%	8%	92	+0.6
●Gregory Polanco 2018 · MLB	26	51→55	50→60	51→55	51	256/316/419	163	287	17	16	18%	8%	108	+2.3	241/314/436	195	290	22	13	24%	9%	111	+2.5	227/308/435	208	279	24	12	27%	10%	104	+1.1
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	44→47	53→55	50	48	228/296/403	176	270	20	15	24%	8%	96	+1.5	218/309/381	163	277	18	9	26%	11%	95	+1.4	205/310/363	157	260	18	7	27%	13%	89	+0.4
✕Derek Fisher 2020 · MLB	26	45→52	54→55	51→55	45	229/305/407	179	316	23	17	34%	9%	101	+1.8	215/290/369	154	307	18	10	34%	9%	85	+0.7	124/197/248	125	185	17	0	43%	8%	11	-0.8
●Trent Grisham 2023 · MLB	26	42→50	53→60	51→55	52	221/312/396	175	271	20	12	26%	11%	101	+1.8	212/315/390	178	263	21	10	27%	12%	101	+1.8	221/330/419	198	244	27	6	22%	13%	112	+1.6
✕Ryan McMahon 2022 · MLB	27	41→51	51→55	46→45	50	216/296/371	155	269	19	6	27%	10%	88	+0.9	213/296/354	141	279	16	6	28%	10%	83	+0.6	206/298/347	141	281	17	4	31%	11%	79	+0.3
●Felix Pie 2010 · MLB	25	50→55	48→50	49→60	46	251/303/396	145	299	15	12	21%	7%	95	+1.4	245/291/377	132	290	10	13	19%	6%	85	+0.7	250/303/403	153	303	14	25	22%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Travis Snider 2013 · MLB	25	51→53	48→60	48→50	46	251/307/394	143	312	15	13	24%	7%	98	+1.6	246/313/385	139	306	15	7	23%	9%	98	+1.6	245/318/374	129	300	13	1	22%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Brandon Allen 2012 · MLB	26	44→47	55	50	49	226/309/414	187	293	22	10	30%	10%	104	+2.0	220/286/387	167	285	19	7	29%	8%	87	+0.8	212/273/364	152	266	18	4	27%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Jason Martin 2022 · MLB	26	43→49	54→60	46→50	47	227/288/404	177	264	23	11	24%	8%	92	+1.2	230/292/428	198	292	26	9	30%	8%	101	+1.8	222/285/422	200	282	26	8	31%	8%	93	+0.9
●Zach McKinstry 2021 · AAA	26	47→54	51→55	45→55	43	236/292/396	160	301	18	8	28%	6%	92	+1.2	238/299/398	160	293	17	11	24%	7%	95	+1.4	243/315/392	149	299	12	23	22%	8%	98	+1.2
✕Brandon Boggs 2009 · MLB	26	45→48	50→55	50	50	223/307/391	169	298	16	10	30%	10%	97	+1.5	212/299/341	129	298	12	8	30%	11%	81	+0.4	202/290/327	126	278	11	5	29%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Chris Heisey 2011 · MLB	26	49→52	50→55	52→55	46	247/307/404	157	290	17	14	21%	6%	100	+1.7	245/298/410	165	294	20	10	23%	6%	98	+1.6	243/294/408	165	288	20	9	23%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Taylor Trammell 2023 · MLB	25	45→46	54→55	49→55	46	230/302/412	181	299	21	15	30%	8%	101	+1.8	215/303/387	172	292	20	19	32%	10%	95	+1.4	200/298/370	170	270	21	20	32%	11%	87	+0.5
●Harrison Bader 2020 · MLB	26	46→56	52→55	52→55	46	232/314/397	165	303	20	17	29%	8%	102	+1.9	245/319/418	173	304	20	17	25%	8%	109	+2.4	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
●Michael Saunders 2013 · MLB	26	46→52	50→55	53→55	48	233/301/390	157	295	17	19	26%	9%	94	+1.3	246/323/409	163	313	16	14	25%	10%	108	+2.3	250/336/440	190	316	20	8	26%	11%	117	+2.2
✕Rob Mackowiak 2003 · MLB	27	49→57	52→55	47→50	48	248/323/418	169	311	19	12	26%	9%	111	+2.5	254/326/416	162	313	18	13	23%	9%	111	+2.5	262/335/399	137	315	14	11	20%	9%	105	+1.5
✕Josh Kroeger 2009 · AAA	26	51→56	49→50	49→50	44	254/300/409	155	305	16	11	23%	6%	98	+1.6	230/277/367	137	264	15	16	19%	6%	78	+0.2	213/272/356	144	233	17	11	17%	6%	72	-0.1
●Lane Thomas 2022 · MLB	26	46→52	51→55	48→55	50	229/308/395	165	299	17	13	28%	10%	98	+1.6	247/309/421	174	308	20	16	25%	7%	105	+2.1	248/309/423	176	306	20	21	25%	7%	104	+2.0