Lawrence Butler — OGILVIE

Lawrence ButlerRF Athletics

Age 26 L/R 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB HR -6%K -4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027

wRC+†vL 7493vR 102

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .304 / .425

PA630

HR25

SB23

K%27

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

52↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.1	$9M	+$4M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$8M	+$0.1M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.7	$3M	-$7M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+0.5	$2M	-$12M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$16M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$78M		$25M	-$53M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$53M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	124	113	16	2	1	1	11	62	0	3	1	.142	.218	.204	.421	.062	.300	50	9	.196	8	-13	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
2021	21	A	2 teams	450	406	86	18	4	13	38	192	1	29	5	.212	.281	.372	.653	.160	.354	43	8	.286	77	-12	+4	+0	-5	+13	0.0
2022	22	A+	2 teams	405	369	79	18	3	10	33	161	0	19	6	.214	.279	.360	.639	.146	.343	40	8	.278	71	-13	+1	+0	-4	+11	-0.5
2023	23	AA	3 teams	541	503	116	19	2	17	28	138	3	21	2	.231	.275	.378	.653	.147	.279	26	5	.286	77	-14	+3	+0	+2	+15	0.7
2024	24	MLB	2 teams	577	526	136	29	2	26	47	140	0	25	1	.259	.319	.470	.789	.211	.302	24	8	.341	119	+12	+5	-3	-6	+16	2.5
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	630	569	129	27	1	22	59	179	0	22	7	.227	.299	.394	.693	.167	.291	28	9	.305	92	-6	+2	-0	-7	+18	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	MLB	Athletics	87	78	15	2	0	2	9	24	0	4	1	.192	.276	.295	.571	.103	.250	28	10	.253	52	-5	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.4
ROS	26	MLB	OAK	543	489	115	22	2	21	48	147	1	19	5	.235	.305	.417	.722	.182	.287	27	9	.315	99	-1	+2	-2	-6	+15	1.0
TOT	26	MLB	OAK	630	567	130	24	2	23	57	171	1	23	6	.229	.301	.400	.701	.171	.285	27	9	.306	93	-5	+2	-2	-7	+18	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB	OAK	625	563	131	25	2	24	56	139	1	22	6	.233	.303	.412	.715	.179	.265	22	9	.315	99	-1	+2	-2	-7	+18	1.1
2028	28	MLB	OAK	617	555	129	25	2	23	56	139	1	21	5	.232	.304	.409	.713	.177	.264	23	9	.314	98	-1	+2	-2	-7	+17	1.0
2029	29	MLB	OAK	605	545	124	24	1	22	55	138	0	19	5	.228	.298	.396	.695	.169	.263	23	9	.312	97	-2	+2	-3	-6	+17	0.7
2030	30	MLB	OAK	593	534	121	23	1	22	54	137	0	18	4	.227	.298	.397	.695	.170	.262	23	9	.309	94	-4	+2	-4	-6	+17	0.5
2031	31	MLB	OAK	578	520	116	22	1	21	53	136	0	14	3	.223	.295	.390	.685	.167	.261	24	9	.305	91	-6	+2	-4	-6	+16	0.2
2032	32	MLB	OAK	559	503	110	21	1	19	51	134	0	12	2	.219	.291	.378	.668	.159	.259	24	9	.300	88	-8	+2	-5	-6	+16	-0.1
2033	33	MLB	OAK	529	476	103	19	1	18	48	131	0	9	1	.216	.288	.374	.662	.158	.257	25	9	.294	83	-10	+1	-6	-6	+15	-0.5
2034	34	MLB	OAK	481	435	91	17	1	15	43	123	0	7	1	.209	.280	.356	.637	.147	.255	26	9	.288	78	-12	+1	-6	-5	+14	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7857	7106	1602	311	25	274	680	2096	7	260	54	.225	.294	.392	.686	.166	.278	27	9	.303	90	-88	+30	-37	-76	+223	5.2
/ 162G	—			650	588	133	26	2	23	56	173	1	22	4	.226	.295	.395	.690	.168	.278	27	9	.303	90	-7	+3	-3	-6	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	124	106	24	4	2	1	18	43	0	3	1	.226	.339	.330	.669	.104	.371	35	15	.310	95	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2021	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	54	50	17	4	0	2	4	15	0	3	1	.340	.389	.540	.929	.200	.455	28	7	.408	171	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2021	21	A	Stockton Ports	396	335	88	20	4	17	55	131	1	26	4	.263	.368	.499	.867	.236	.370	33	14	.377	146	+21	+4	—	—	+11	3.6
2022	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	333	293	79	19	3	11	40	105	0	13	5	.270	.357	.468	.825	.198	.384	32	12	.365	138	+14	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2022	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	72	54	13	3	1	2	15	15	0	6	1	.241	.406	.444	.850	.204	.275	21	21	.367	139	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	129	123	26	4	0	4	4	35	1	0	0	.211	.242	.341	.584	.130	.259	27	3	.258	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2023	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	94	82	23	2	1	5	8	18	1	8	0	.280	.352	.512	.864	.232	.290	19	9	.367	139	+4	+2	—	—	+3	0.9
2023	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	318	284	81	17	2	10	30	60	1	13	2	.285	.356	.465	.820	.180	.327	19	9	.360	134	+12	+2	—	—	+9	2.3
2024	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	451	412	108	24	2	22	35	108	0	18	0	.262	.320	.490	.810	.228	.301	24	8	.352	127	+14	+4	-3	-6	+13	2.2
2024	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	126	110	28	6	0	4	16	25	0	7	1	.255	.349	.418	.767	.164	.296	20	13	.345	122	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	630	569	133	30	2	21	59	179	0	22	7	.234	.306	.404	.710	.170	.304	28	9	.316	100	-0	+2	-0	-7	+18	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1210	1104	267	58	4	47	98	322	1	40	7	.242	.304	.429	.734	.188	.297	27	8	.323	105	+7	+5	-3	-11	+34	3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lawrence Butler (OGILVIE)	26	50	50	45	50	.231/.300/.406	.175	.265	24	23	22%	9%	99	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh VanMeter 2021 · MLB	26	45→49	52→55	50	48	.232/.299/.408	.176	.276	19	14	24%	8%	98	+1.6	.219/.308/.379	.160	.279	18	9	26%	11%	95	+1.4	.202/.307/.353	.150	.259	16	7	27%	13%	84	+0.3
✕Rougned Odor 2020 · MLB	26	39→49	57→60	43→50	45	.216/.284/.409	.193	.254	25	13	27%	8%	93	+1.3	.212/.283/.408	.196	.253	26	7	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.202/.282/.366	.164	.240	20	5	25%	8%	76	+0.1
●Gregory Polanco 2018 · MLB	26	50→55	51→60	51→55	51	.255/.315/.419	.164	.286	17	17	18%	8%	107	+2.2	.242/.315/.441	.199	.285	23	13	23%	9%	113	+2.6	.226/.306/.437	.211	.274	25	12	27%	10%	105	+1.1
●Daulton Varsho 2022 · MLB	26	46→49	56→60	54→50	49	.241/.307/.435	.194	.272	23	15	21%	8%	108	+2.3	.234/.301/.431	.197	.274	25	14	24%	8%	105	+2.1	.226/.297/.422	.195	.266	24	15	25%	8%	98	+1.5
✕Derek Fisher 2020 · MLB	26	44→51	54→55	50→55	45	.227/.302/.402	.175	.312	22	17	33%	9%	98	+1.6	.213/.289/.365	.152	.306	18	11	34%	9%	83	+0.6	.124/.199/.239	.115	.190	14	0	42%	8%	10	-0.8
✕Franchy Cordero 2021 · MLB	26	45→53	53→55	53→50	45	.231/.302/.408	.177	.314	21	15	32%	9%	99	+1.7	.232/.300/.390	.158	.331	17	12	33%	8%	94	+1.3	.230/.301/.392	.162	.321	18	12	32%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Jason Martin 2022 · MLB	26	42→50	50→60	45→50	45	.218/.276/.369	.152	.261	19	11	25%	7%	78	+0.2	.228/.292/.420	.192	.292	25	9	30%	8%	98	+1.6	.223/.288/.417	.194	.287	25	8	31%	8%	92	+0.9
●Trent Grisham 2023 · MLB	26	42→48	50→60	52→55	53	.216/.308/.375	.159	.269	17	13	26%	11%	94	+1.3	.208/.311/.377	.169	.260	20	11	27%	12%	96	+1.5	.210/.323/.396	.186	.251	24	8	26%	13%	101	+1.3
✕DJ Stewart 2020 · MLB	26	44→48	52→60	47→50	48	.231/.303/.398	.167	.271	20	12	23%	8%	98	+1.6	.223/.320/.400	.177	.277	22	7	27%	11%	105	+2.1	.212/.318/.409	.197	.253	28	2	28%	11%	104	+0.9
●Harrison Bader 2020 · MLB	26	46→55	52→55	51→55	45	.233/.311/.399	.167	.303	20	17	29%	8%	102	+1.8	.245/.320/.424	.179	.304	21	17	25%	8%	111	+2.5	.254/.315/.421	.167	.304	19	21	22%	7%	102	+0.9
●Dominic Canzone 2023 · AAA	25	46→53	53→60	54→50	42	.241/.293/.411	.170	.296	21	18	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.248/.302/.428	.180	.290	23	9	23%	7%	105	+2.1	.252/.309/.432	.181	.291	24	5	22%	7%	106	+1.5
●Scott Schebler 2017 · MLB	26	46→52	53→60	52→50	41	.238/.293/.419	.181	.284	21	9	24%	5%	99	+1.7	.232/.300/.411	.179	.274	22	6	24%	7%	100	+1.7	.214/.291/.383	.169	.251	22	4	25%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Jordany Valdespin 2014 · MLB	26	50→54	49→50	51→55	43	.254/.296/.404	.150	.292	17	24	20%	5%	95	+1.4	.239/.294/.355	.116	.272	12	17	17%	6%	82	+0.5	.260/.308/.341	.081	.308	5	18	16%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Casper Wells 2011 · MLB	26	41→46	56→60	46→50	42	.220/.286/.415	.196	.277	23	11	30%	7%	95	+1.4	.227/.297/.413	.186	.289	21	8	28%	8%	99	+1.7	.222/.301/.401	.179	.280	20	6	27%	9%	93	+0.5
●Lane Thomas 2022 · MLB	26	45→51	51→55	48→55	49	.227/.305/.393	.166	.296	18	13	29%	10%	97	+1.5	.246/.309/.418	.172	.307	19	15	25%	8%	105	+2.1	.248/.309/.422	.174	.307	20	21	25%	7%	104	+2.0
●Colby Rasmus 2013 · MLB	26	46→56	53→60	46→50	50	.236/.308/.416	.180	.282	21	7	24%	9%	104	+2.0	.238/.304/.437	.199	.302	25	4	29%	8%	108	+2.3	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●Lars Nootbaar 2023 · MLB	25	45→53	56→55	48→50	56	.236/.325/.429	.194	.271	23	9	22%	11%	115	+2.7	.243/.339/.413	.170	.287	19	10	21%	12%	116	+2.8	.242/.341/.394	.152	.286	17	8	20%	13%	107	+1.9
●Reggie Taylor 2003 · MLB	26	48→58	51→50	49→55	42	.246/.291/.410	.165	.303	18	17	25%	6%	95	+1.4	.230/.278/.372	.142	.303	15	18	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.260/.307/.416	.155	.297	18	22	19%	6%	102	+1.0
✕Jake Fraley 2022 · MLB	27	46	53→55	53→55	51	.234/.321/.411	.177	.299	21	21	28%	10%	108	+2.3	.248/.334/.408	.160	.301	20	21	23%	11%	113	+2.6	.257/.332/.404	.146	.303	17	26	20%	9%	104	+1.2
●Eddie Rosario 2018 · MLB	26	52→55	53→60	46→50	42	.268/.301/.447	.179	.309	21	11	21%	5%	109	+2.4	.274/.310/.468	.194	.296	26	8	17%	5%	118	+3.0	.273/.309/.475	.203	.284	29	6	16%	5%	114	+2.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)