Lawrence Butler

RF Athletics

Age 27 L/R 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 3.186 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAAOAK	126	.255/.349/.418	4	7	83	—	.237/.310/.360
2024	24	MLBOakland Athle…	451	.262/.320/.490	22	18	130	2.1
2025	25	MLBOAK	630	.234/.306/.404	21	22	96	0.5
2026	26	MLBOAK	539	.237/.327/.394	17	10	101	0.5
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	495	.244/.322/.428	19	13	107	1.3
2028PROJ	28	MLBOAK	562	.242/.320/.423	21	13	105	1.3
2029PROJ	29	MLBOAK	547	.239/.317/.415	20	10	102	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service3.186First FA2030Options2

2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M2029Ext$9M2030Ext$9M2031Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd72

Avg EV69

xwOBA61

Barrel%59

Speed33

Form.241/.312/.431 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .238/.314/.420

CompsDJ Stewart (age 27) · Josh VanMeter (age 27) · Derek Fisher (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 83107vR 116

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .322 / .428

PA495

HR19

SB13

K%26

BB%10

BABIP299

ISO186

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

370.241

POWER50

Barrel%

599.5

Avg EV

6990.4

Bat Spd

7273.7

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3326.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%·27% over 116 PA (60d) · proj 26%

BB%9%▼9% over 116 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.190·.204 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .182

HR/BB6.4%·6.8% over 73 BBE (60d) · proj 6.1%

BABIP.293·.338 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .290

SLASH.241/.312/.431·proj .238/.314/.420

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1172 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

234

938

—

wRC+

110

▶▶R

wOBA

289

331

▶R

ISO

174

190

▶R

BABIP

301

296

—

33.8%

24.8%

▶▶R

BB%

4.7%

9.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.186 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.3	$10M	+$1M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.3	$10M	+$1M
2029	Ext	$9M	+1.0	$7M	-$0.7M
2030	Ext	$9M	+0.6	$2M	-$5M
2031	Ext	$9M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$6M
Totals		$47M		$29M	-$9M

Options · projected decision
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.4M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $4.0M buyout	DECLINE

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	124	106	24	4	2	1	18	43	0	3	1	226	339	330	669	104	371	35	15	310	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	54	50	17	4	0	2	4	15	0	3	1	340	389	540	929	200	455	28	7	408	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Stockton Ports	—	396	335	88	20	4	17	55	131	1	26	4	263	368	499	867	236	370	33	14	377	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	333	293	79	19	3	11	40	105	0	13	5	270	357	468	825	198	384	32	12	365	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	72	54	13	3	1	2	15	15	0	6	1	241	406	444	850	204	275	21	21	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	129	123	26	4	0	4	4	35	1	0	0	211	242	341	584	130	259	27	3	258	65	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2023	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	94	82	23	2	1	5	8	18	1	8	0	280	352	512	864	232	290	19	9	367	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	318	284	81	17	2	10	30	60	1	13	2	285	356	465	820	180	327	19	9	360	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	451	412	108	24	2	22	35	108	0	18	0	262	320	490	810	228	301	24	8	352	130	+16	+4	-3	-6	+10	2.1
2024	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	126	110	28	6	0	4	16	25	0	7	1	255	349	418	767	164	296	20	13	345	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Athletics	—	630	569	133	30	2	21	59	179	0	22	7	234	306	404	710	170	304	28	9	316	96	-3	+2	-0	-7	+14	0.5
2026	26	MLB	Athletics	—	539	472	112	19	2	17	61	138	2	10	7	237	327	394	721	157	298	26	11	323	101	+0	-1	-1	-6	+12	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1749	1576	379	77	6	64	159	460	3	50	14	240	311	419	730	178	297	26	9	323	105	+10	+4	-4	-17	+38	3.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	124	113	16	2	1	1	11	62	0	3	1	142	218	204	421	62	315	50	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	54	51	14	3	0	2	3	20	0	3	1	275	315	451	766	176	418	37	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	396	352	72	16	4	11	38	175	1	26	4	205	284	366	650	162	340	44	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	333	305	66	15	2	9	28	132	0	13	5	216	282	367	649	151	346	40	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	129	123	26	4	0	4	4	35	1	0	0	211	242	341	584	130	259	27	3	264	65	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2023	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	94	85	22	2	1	4	5	21	1	8	0	259	308	447	755	188	264	22	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	318	295	74	15	2	9	19	75	1	13	2	251	298	407	705	156	296	24	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	451	412	109	23	2	24	35	108	0	18	0	265	322	505	827	240	301	24	8	360	130	+16	+4	-3	-6	+10	2.1
2024	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	126	114	27	5	0	3	12	29	0	7	1	237	310	360	669	123	287	23	10	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	630	569	130	27	2	22	59	179	0	22	7	228	301	399	700	170	304	28	9	310	96	-3	+2	-0	-7	+14	0.5
2026	26	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	539	473	109	17	2	17	60	138	2	10	7	230	320	383	702	152	298	26	11	317	101	+0	-1	-1	-6	+12	0.5
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	124	113	16	2	1	1	11	62	0	3	1	142	218	204	421	62	300	50	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	—	124	106	24	4	2	1	18	43	0	3	1	226	339	330	669	104	371	35	15	310	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	450	403	84	18	4	12	41	195	1	29	5	208	283	362	645	154	358	43	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	450	385	105	24	4	19	59	146	1	29	5	273	371	504	875	231	382	32	13	380	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	405	368	80	18	3	11	34	160	0	19	6	217	284	372	656	155	345	40	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	405	347	92	22	4	13	55	120	0	19	6	265	366	464	830	199	364	30	14	366	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	541	502	121	20	3	17	29	131	3	21	2	241	287	394	681	153	288	24	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	541	489	130	23	3	19	42	113	3	21	2	266	328	442	769	176	305	21	8	337	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	577	526	136	28	2	27	47	137	0	25	1	259	319	473	793	215	298	24	8	345	120	+13	+5	-3	-6	+13	2.2
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	577	522	136	30	2	26	51	133	0	25	1	261	326	475	801	215	300	23	9	350	120	+13	+5	-3	-6	+13	2.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	630	569	130	27	2	22	59	179	0	22	7	228	301	399	700	170	293	28	9	310	96	-3	+2	-0	-7	+14	0.5
2025	25	MLB RAW	Athletics	—	630	569	133	30	2	21	59	179	0	22	7	234	306	404	710	170	304	28	9	316	96	-3	+2	-0	-7	+14	0.5
2026	26	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	539	473	109	17	2	17	60	138	2	10	7	230	320	383	702	152	287	26	11	317	101	+0	-1	-1	-6	+12	0.5
2026	26	MLB RAW	Athletics	—	539	472	112	19	2	17	61	138	2	10	7	237	327	394	721	157	298	26	11	323	101	+0	-1	-1	-6	+12	0.5
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	124	112	16	2	1	1	11	62	0	3	1	143	218	205	423	62	315	50	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	450	405	84	18	4	12	41	195	1	29	5	207	283	360	644	153	349	43	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	405	368	80	18	3	11	34	160	0	19	6	217	284	372	656	155	346	40	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	541	504	121	20	3	17	29	131	3	21	2	240	287	393	679	153	282	24	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	577	525	136	28	2	27	47	137	0	25	1	259	319	474	794	215	298	24	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	630	566	130	27	2	22	59	179	0	22	7	230	301	401	702	171	304	28	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	539	472	109	17	2	17	60	138	2	10	7	231	320	383	703	153	298	26	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	577	525	136	28	2	27	47	137	0	25	1	259	319	474	794	215	298	24	8	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	630	566	130	27	2	22	59	179	0	22	7	230	301	401	702	171	304	28	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	539	472	109	17	2	17	60	138	2	10	7	231	320	383	703	153	298	26	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	563	501	119	21	2	22	56	147	1	15	4	238	317	420	737	182	290	26	10	326	107	+5	+1	+3	-6	+12	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	495	441	108	21	2	19	50	129	1	13	4	244	322	428	750	184	299	26	10	331	107	+4	+1	+3	-5	+11	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	562	500	118	21	2	21	56	148	1	13	4	236	315	415	729	179	288	26	10	323	105	+3	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	547	487	113	20	2	20	54	146	1	10	3	233	312	408	719	174	286	27	10	319	102	+1	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	532	473	108	19	1	19	53	143	1	8	3	229	307	398	706	169	283	27	10	313	98	-1	+0	+1	-6	+12	0.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	OAK	100%	517	461	103	18	1	18	51	141	0	4	2	224	302	387	688	162	279	27	10	306	94	-4	+0	+0	-6	+11	0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	562	500	121	24	2	21	56	148	1	13	4	242	320	423	743	181	298	26	10	328	105	+3	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	547	487	117	23	2	20	54	146	1	10	3	239	317	415	732	177	296	27	10	324	102	+1	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	532	473	112	22	2	19	53	143	1	8	3	235	312	406	718	171	292	27	10	319	98	-1	+0	+1	-6	+12	0.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	OAK	100%	517	461	106	20	1	18	51	141	0	4	2	230	306	394	700	164	288	27	10	311	94	-4	+0	+0	-6	+11	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3907	3497	835	166	13	142	373	1038	6	85	26	239	313	415	729	177	297	27	10	322	96	+9	+7	+1	-40	+85	6.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	140	28	2	24	62	173	1	14	4	241	315	419	734	179	299	27	10	322	96	+2	+1	+0	-7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5919	5316	1223	227	25	204	545	1709	10	177	45	230	303	397	700	167	296	29	9	310	96	+13	+8	+4	-45	+95	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	134	25	3	22	60	188	1	19	5	229	302	396	698	166	296	29	9	310	96	+2	+1	+1	-7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 126 PAwOBA .336 → .291 (−45)K% 19.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.84%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	23.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.70%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.64%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.18%	÷0.974	×0.930	×1.034	×1.048	21.91%
Doubles /BIP	7.06%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.034	×1.048	5.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.034	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.71%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .336 → .291; ISO .164 → .124; BABIP .296 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 318 PAwOBA .352 → .301 (−51)K% 18.9% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.87%	÷0.981	×1.220	—	—	23.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.81%	÷1.031	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.14%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.28%
Singles /BIP	23.21%	÷1.021	×0.920	×1.005	×1.027	21.58%
Doubles /BIP	7.59%	÷1.011	×0.840	×1.005	×1.027	6.51%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.005	×1.027	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷0.957	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.83%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .352 → .301; ISO .180 → .153; BABIP .327 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 94 PAwOBA .368 → .314 (−55)K% 19.1% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.15%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.51%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.85%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.05%
Singles /BIP	23.44%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.969	×1.050	22.33%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.124	×0.830	×0.969	×1.050	2.35%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.133	×0.970	×0.969	×1.050	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	7.81%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .368 → .314; ISO .232 → .181; BABIP .290 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 333 PAwOBA .355 → .282 (−73)K% 31.5% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.53%	÷1.011	×1.270	—	—	39.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.71%	÷1.020	×0.710	—	×1.012	8.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.47%	÷0.996	×0.920	×1.001	×1.012	22.90%
Doubles /BIP	10.11%	÷0.967	×0.810	×1.001	×1.012	8.58%
Triples /BIP	1.60%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.001	×1.012	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	5.85%	÷0.944	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.02%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .355 → .282; ISO .198 → .156; BABIP .384 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AStockton Ports · 396 PAwOBA .372 → .279 (−92)K% 33.1% → 44.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.08%	÷1.020	×1.360	—	—	44.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.89%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.47%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.20%
Singles /BIP	23.04%	÷0.971	×0.920	×1.013	×1.015	22.43%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷0.981	×0.830	×1.013	×1.015	8.53%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷0.902	×0.910	×1.013	×1.015	2.03%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.165	×0.800	—	×1.015	5.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .372 → .279; ISO .236 → .164; BABIP .370 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 54 PAwOBA .397 → .314 (−83)K% 27.8% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷0.998	×1.350	—	—	37.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷0.938	×0.710	—	×1.027	5.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.43%	÷0.961	×0.910	—	×1.027	30.55%
Doubles /BIP	11.43%	÷1.066	×0.830	—	×1.027	9.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.820	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷0.959	×0.830	—	×1.027	5.08%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .397 → .314; ISO .200 → .149; BABIP .455 → .418. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Athletics · 124 PAwOBA .302 → .200 (−102)K% 34.7% → 49.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.68%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	49.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.52%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	9.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.98%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.022	23.76%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.022	4.91%
Triples /BIP	3.17%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.022	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	1.59%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .302 → .200; ISO .104 → .065; BABIP .371 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#2Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.6	4,402	162	98	237	308	413	-47	-14	9.2	9.3
/162	664	25	15	-7.1	-2.2	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#4Ken Harrelson'63-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,364 PA	5.1	3,364	131	53	249*	335*	461*	-50	-6	8.2	8.8
/162	664	26	10	-9.8	-1.3	1.6	pk7: 9
#5Eddie Rosariolast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,347 PA	6.5	4,347	169	65	262	298	450	-47	-39	7.0	8.7
/162	664	26	10	-7.1	-6.0	1.1	pk7: 10
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lawrence Butler (OGILVIE)	27	50	50	45	50	236/314/416	180	290	19	13	26%	10%	107	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	43→49	54→60	44→50	52	226/313/409	183	270	22	8	25%	10%	104	+1.6	220/321/400	180	275	23	5	28%	11%	105	+1.7	206/311/393	187	248	26	2	28%	11%	100	+0.6
✕Josh VanMeter 2022 · MLB	27	45→50	54→55	48→50	53	232/319/414	183	285	21	10	26%	11%	107	+1.9	201/299/333	132	263	14	9	27%	12%	82	-0.0	166/277/265	100	221	10	9	28%	13%	58	-0.6
✕Derek Fisher 2021 · MLB	27	44→52	54→55	51→55	48	224/311/401	176	315	22	15	34%	11%	101	+1.4	205/275/337	132	301	14	8	34%	8%	73	-0.6	118/191/219	101	184	12	0	42%	7%	13	-0.9
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47	53→55	51→55	55	241/338/410	168	298	22	15	26%	12%	113	+2.3	253/327/404	151	299	17	23	20%	9%	107	+1.9	254/325/394	139	298	15	27	19%	9%	104	+0.9
●Chas McCormick 2022 · MLB	27	48→52	54→55	48→55	47	246/318/417	171	309	23	11	28%	8%	107	+1.9	249/325/421	172	315	23	14	27%	9%	111	+2.1	242/322/405	163	303	22	17	26%	9%	107	+1.2
✕Rob Mackowiak 2003 · MLB	27	48→56	51→55	47→50	46	245/311/412	167	305	19	12	26%	8%	103	+1.6	252/319/413	161	309	18	13	23%	8%	107	+1.8	260/328/396	136	312	14	11	20%	8%	107	+1.4
●Ryan Noda 2023 · AAA	27	42→49	54→55	50	47	216/310/390	174	298	22	13	34%	10%	99	+1.3	204/324/370	166	299	20	8	35%	13%	100	+1.3	183/321/343	159	273	19	6	36%	15%	93	+0.6
✕Ryan McMahon 2022 · MLB	27	46→56	53→55	45	50	237/313/413	177	294	22	6	27%	10%	105	+1.7	233/312/394	161	305	19	6	28%	10%	100	+1.3	228/311/381	153	303	18	5	29%	10%	99	+1.3
✕Brandon Allen 2012 · MLB	26	44→49	55	50	49	230/314/419	190	296	22	10	29%	10%	107	+1.8	221/289/385	164	284	19	7	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/277/360	147	265	17	4	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Aaron Altherr 2018 · MLB	27	50→52	54→55	50	47	251/321/439	188	308	20	12	25%	8%	114	+2.3	211/293/365	154	282	17	10	30%	9%	86	+0.3	177/270/308	130	244	14	9	32%	10%	65	-0.6
●Zach McKinstry 2022 · MLB	27	45→53	52→55	46→55	45	235/291/409	174	281	20	9	24%	7%	95	+1.0	236/301/376	140	292	13	15	22%	8%	91	+0.7	239/310/384	145	294	12	23	22%	8%	97	+0.8
✕Taylor Trammell 2024 · MLB	26	43→48	53→55	50→55	49	221/307/396	175	292	21	17	31%	10%	99	+1.2	211/301/376	165	285	19	18	31%	10%	93	+0.8	195/291/359	164	260	19	18	31%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	46→48	54→55	53→50	50	233/316/425	192	301	20	13	28%	10%	109	+2.0	224/311/389	165	306	17	15	30%	10%	98	+1.2	197/290/337	140	285	14	16	33%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Chris Richard 2002 · MLB	28	50→52	54→55	45→50	49	259/322/446	187	287	21	13	18%	7%	116	+2.5	246/312/411	165	281	17	9	19%	8%	103	+1.6	220/290/395	175	270	21	8	26%	7%	92	+0.5
●Matt Joyce 2012 · MLB	27	50→52	55→60	50	53	254/329/448	195	295	21	12	22%	10%	118	+2.7	244/331/424	180	284	20	8	21%	11%	114	+2.3	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→53	55	50→55	44	247/303/431	184	286	24	11	23%	6%	105	+1.7	241/290/395	154	290	17	11	23%	5%	92	+0.7	235/281/378	143	282	14	11	22%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Scott Schebler 2018 · MLB	27	45→52	57→60	47→50	43	239/299/440	201	273	25	7	23%	6%	106	+1.8	220/291/377	157	267	20	5	25%	8%	88	+0.5	193/263/322	129	250	16	4	29%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Jason Martin 2024 · MLB	28	45→52	56→60	47→50	46	237/300/428	191	296	24	9	28%	8%	103	+1.6	234/293/397	163	299	19	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	224/284/390	166	279	20	8	27%	7%	86	+0.2
●Harrison Bader 2022 · MLB	28	47→57	56→55	50→55	46	248/315/442	194	294	24	14	24%	7%	112	+2.2	241/289/376	135	283	15	24	20%	5%	87	+0.4	246/306/404	158	305	19	16	25%	6%	101	+0.8
●Todd Hollandsworth 2001 · MLB	28	51→55	55	50	50	264/324/443	179	301	23	20	21%	8%	116	+2.5	277/330/466	189	323	21	14	20%	7%	123	+3.0	280/332/469	189	332	18	11	20%	7%	125	+1.5

Lawrence Butler

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps