Ricky Tiedemann prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ricky Tiedemann P Buffalo Bisons

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 SEASON TOTAL18 act + 0 ip · rates below = full season (so far + ros)

showingTOTAL

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 1321vR 29

ERA9.00

FIP-0.23

K%98.7%

BB%39.5%

K-BB%59.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$7M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	79	301	117	29	3	100%	4.4	29.9%	11.2%	18.7%	1.6%	2.17	2.85	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	79	301	117	29	3	100%	4.4	38.9%	9.6%	29.2%	1.0%	2.17	1.73	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	32.2%	15.1%	17.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.74	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	32.2%	15.1%	17.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.74	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	44.1%	12.4%	31.7%	0.5%	3.68	1.24	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.44	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.44	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	6	29	8	6	0	0%	1.2	27.6%	20.7%	6.9%	0.0%	1.50	3.43	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	16	2	18	80	25	10	0	12%	1.1	—	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	16	2	18	80	25	10	0	12%	1.1	—	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TOR	2	2	2	8	4	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	4.50	-1.12	—
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	2	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	1.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	TOR	7	0	8	36	10	4	0	0%	1.1	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	4.50	2.16	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	TOR	5	0	6	29	8	6	0	0%	1.2	27.6%	20.7%	6.9%	0.0%	1.50	3.39	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TOR	5	0	6	29	8	6	0	0%	1.2	27.6%	20.7%	6.9%	0.0%	1.50	3.39	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.1%	11.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	—
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.1%	11.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	18	80	25	10	0	—	—	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	0.0%	3.00	0.00	+1.1
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	6	25	25	10	0	—	—	98.7%	39.5%	59.2%	0.0%	9.00	-0.23	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	92	389	109	41	11	100%	5.8	28.1%	10.6%	17.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	93	394	110	39	11	100%	5.8	28.0%	9.9%	18.1%	2.8%	3.95	3.88	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	93	394	110	38	11	100%	5.8	27.9%	9.7%	18.2%	2.8%	3.92	3.88	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	92	388	108	38	11	100%	6.1	27.8%	9.7%	18.0%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	89	377	104	37	11	100%	5.9	27.6%	9.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.98	4.01	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	85	360	99	36	11	100%	6.1	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	3.1%	4.08	4.14	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	338	91	35	11	100%	6.2	27.1%	10.4%	16.6%	3.3%	4.22	4.32	+0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	88	372	104	39	10	100%	5.5	28.1%	10.6%	17.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	+1.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	89	376	105	37	10	100%	5.9	28.0%	9.9%	18.1%	2.8%	3.95	3.88	+1.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	89	376	105	37	10	100%	5.9	27.9%	9.7%	18.2%	2.8%	3.92	3.88	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	87	367	102	36	10	100%	6.2	27.8%	9.7%	18.0%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	85	359	99	35	11	100%	6.1	27.6%	9.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.98	4.01	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	94	35	11	100%	5.8	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	3.1%	4.08	4.14	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	87	33	11	100%	5.8	27.1%	10.4%	16.6%	3.3%	4.22	4.32	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	100	600	2538	703	258	73	95%	5.7	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	2.9%	3.99	3.63	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	846	234	86	24	95%	5.7	27.7%	10.2%	17.5%	2.9%	3.99	3.63	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		57	43	158	650	202	88	10	75%	2.8	31.1%	13.5%	17.6%	1.6%	3.02	3.05	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	54	200	823	256	111	13	75%	2.8	31.1%	13.5%	17.6%	1.6%	3.02	3.05	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricky Tiedemann (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	28.1%	11.0%	2.9%	—	3.91	28.0%	17.9%	279	-0.20	—	—	—
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	76
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	439	68
Matt Strahm L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	24.5%	9.6%	3.4%	.242	3.79	24.7%	16.6%	235	-0.29	1.68	757	67
DL Hall L 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	31.5%	14.0%	2.8%	.343	4.09	22.2%	11.0%	190	+0.35	3.49	548	67
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	67
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	906	66
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	66
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	66
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	66
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.79	16.4%	8.4%	311	+0.03	3.16	381	65
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	65
Sam Long L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	21.3%	8.2%	2.8%	.270	4.17	21.9%	12.2%	141	+0.32	3.08	446	65
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	65
Aaron Ashby L 2021 · 3.05 FIP	23	SW	3.05	31.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.330	3.85	23.6%	11.5%	220	+0.80	2.43	654	65
Keyshawn Askew L 2023 · 3.70 FIP	23	SW	3.70	24.1%	12.4%	1.9%	.278	3.91	17.4%	-0.6%	99	+0.21	3.32	262	64
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	27.8%	10.2%	1.13	4.02
Rich Harden ('11)	4.6	103	24.2%	10.7%	1.02	3.76
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Erik Bedard ('14)	6.5	130	22.2%	9.5%	0.90	3.99