Matt Strahm
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.1
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA3.01
FIP3.21
xFIP4.63
SIERA3.63
K%28.3%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%21.4%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.261
SL+0.9 (29%)
CT (7%)
SI (12%)
FB (49%)
CH-2.1 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 29 | 11 | 94 | 375 | 121 | 31 | 8 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 2.59 | 3.96 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 43 | 18 | 124 | 513 | 137 | 33 | 14 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.04 | 3.92 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 3 | 40 | 171 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 24.0% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 50 | 7 | 76 | 306 | 91 | 24 | 7 | 28.4% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 2.14 | 3.04 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 46 | 16 | 115 | 487 | 118 | 18 | 22 | 24.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.71 | 3.99 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 19 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 18.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.61 | 3.75 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 9 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.23 | — | — |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 51 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 53 | 16 | 5 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.27 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 56 | 10 | 88 | 351 | 108 | 21 | 11 | 30.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 3.29 | 2.83 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 63 | 237 | 79 | 10 | 4 | 33.3% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.87 | 1.66 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 62 | 256 | 70 | 19 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 2.74 | 2.70 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.05 | — | — |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 58 | 15 | 5 | 27.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 3.33 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 58 | 244 | 64 | 18 | 6 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 3.02 | 2.94 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 59 | 17 | 6 | 25.6% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 53 | 16 | 6 | 24.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 38 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 39 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 470 | 66 | 744 | 3054 | 796 | 209 | 92 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.22 | 3.42 | +15.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 18 | 200 | 821 | 214 | 56 | 25 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.22 | 3.42 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Strahm (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.33 | 27.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | — | 3.78 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 152 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 2.38 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.38 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 1.4% | .243 | 2.61 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 80 | +0.23 | 1.74 | 203 | 71 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 2.60 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.60 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | .300 | 3.39 | 23.7% | 16.1% | 153 | +0.79 | 2.60 | 430 | 67 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.17 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .301 | 5.84 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.67 | 2.63 | 198 | 61 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 60 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 2.38 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.38 | 23.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | .357 | 4.21 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.83 | 2.38 | 306 | 59 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .290 | 3.36 | 29.3% | 21.7% | 137 | +0.06 | 2.22 | 459 | 54 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .283 | 4.23 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.78 | 3.45 | 512 | 53 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.83 | 24.1% | 13.9% | 0.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 160 | 52 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 51 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 51 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 50 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.22 | 31.7% | 12.2% | 4.1% | .270 | 4.30 | 27.8% | 12.4% | 146 | +0.08 | 2.32 | 455 | 50 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 49 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 426 | 49 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 259 | 48 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 48 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.55 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 120 | -0.77 | 1.56 | 219 | 48 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 47 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 45 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 45 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$1M |
| Totals | $8M | $9M | +$1M | ||