Matt Strahm
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 34
LHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION57 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.35
FIP3.49
xFIP4.63
SIERA3.63
K%25.9%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%18.7%
IP58
K†6565
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
SL+0.9 (30%)
CT (8%)
SI (10%)
FB (48%)
CH-2.1 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 29 | 11 | 94 | 375 | 121 | 31 | 8 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 2.59 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 43 | 18 | 124 | 513 | 137 | 33 | 14 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.04 | 3.97 | +2.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 3 | 40 | 171 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 24.0% | 13.0% | 4.2% | 4.76 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 50 | 7 | 76 | 306 | 91 | 24 | 7 | 28.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 2.14 | 3.20 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 46 | 16 | 115 | 487 | 118 | 18 | 22 | 24.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.71 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 19 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 18.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.61 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 9 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 22.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.23 | 1.24 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 51 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 53 | 16 | 5 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.28 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 56 | 10 | 88 | 351 | 108 | 21 | 11 | 30.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 2.92 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 63 | 237 | 79 | 10 | 4 | 33.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.87 | 1.71 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 66 | 0 | 62 | 256 | 70 | 19 | 5 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 2.74 | 2.77 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 21 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.43 | 6.16 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 41 | 11 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 3.35 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | KC | — | — | 58 | 244 | 59 | 18 | 11 | 24.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 3.73 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | KC | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 56 | 17 | 7 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 4.31 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 484 | 66 | 758 | 3112 | 808 | 213 | 108 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | +15.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 17 | 200 | 821 | 213 | 56 | 28 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.24 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Strahm (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.29 | 28.1% | 7.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.33 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 97 | +1.04 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 2.41 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.41 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .243 | 2.62 | 25.6% | 17.4% | 80 | +0.21 | 1.74 | 228 | 70 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 2.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.52 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.35 | 23.7% | 16.1% | 153 | +0.83 | 2.52 | 430 | 66 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.18 | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .301 | 5.68 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.50 | 2.59 | 198 | 62 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 2.35 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.35 | 23.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | .357 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.76 | 2.35 | 306 | 59 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 58 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.47 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .283 | 4.33 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.86 | 3.47 | 512 | 55 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.19 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .290 | 3.30 | 29.3% | 21.7% | 137 | +0.11 | 2.22 | 475 | 54 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 53 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 52 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 1.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 101 | 52 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 51 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.17 | 31.7% | 12.2% | 4.0% | .270 | 4.26 | 27.8% | 12.4% | 146 | +0.09 | 2.33 | 455 | 50 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 426 | 50 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 50 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.83 | 24.1% | 13.9% | 0.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 160 | 50 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 49 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.34 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.91 | 2.43 | 114 | 49 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.79 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 4.03 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.24 | 3.39 | 138 | 48 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.36 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .296 | 2.53 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 120 | -0.83 | 1.56 | 219 | 48 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.56 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 117 | 46 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.