Lucas Luetge
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.3
WAR
Age 39
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA5.40
FIP4.18
xFIP4.54
SIERA4.39
K%23.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%15.1%
IP43
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD6060
K†4545
FB Velo
p1088.8
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL+1.0
FB+0.7
CT-5.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 1 | 52 | 243 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 4.85 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 24 | 0 | 32 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 4.55 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 32 | AAA | Reno Aces | 55 | 0 | 68 | 278 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 2.38 | 2.93 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 57 | 1 | 72 | 301 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 2.60 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 2.67 | 2.73 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 34 | 0 | 39 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 3.29 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 343 | 3 | 435 | 1884 | 416 | 150 | 46 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.59 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 1 | 200 | 866 | 191 | 69 | 21 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.59 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Luetge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.56 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 40 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.21 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.21 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 156 | 71 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 49 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 46 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.52 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | .264 | 3.90 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 322 | +0.38 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 42 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 40 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 37 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 39 | SP- | 5.30 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 756 | 37 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.70 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.93 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.23 | 3.59 | 444 | 36 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.39 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.01 | 215 | 36 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 34 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 33 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 32 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 32 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.26 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% | .293 | 3.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 123 | 32 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 32 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.77 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.69 | 3.55 | 164 | 31 |
| Chris Young R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 31 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.43 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 30 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 30 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 28 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.