Lucas Luetge
P Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 35 | MLBNYY | 50 | 0 | 57 | 2.67 | 2.75 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 1.2 | ||
| 2023 | 36 | MIX3 levels | 34 | 0 | 39 | 4.81 | 4.12 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 0.2 | K 21.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.49 | |
| 2024 | 37 | AAACHC | 44 | 1 | 58 | 4.01 | 2.93 | 28.5% | 7.2% | — | K 24.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.20 | |
| 2025 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 40 | MLBCHC | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4.09 | 4.30 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJMLE | 41 | MLBCHC | — | — | 0 | 4.47 | 4.73 | 20.4% | 9.0% | — | ||
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 25 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | 63 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 38 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 3.53 | +0.5 |
| 2012 | 25 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | 63 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 38 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 3.98 | 3.52 | +0.5 |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | 35 | 0 | 37 | 165 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 3.48 | +0.5 |
| 2013 | 26 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | 35 | 0 | 37 | 165 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 4.86 | 3.48 | +0.5 |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | 12 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.00 | 7.54 | -0.3 |
| 2014 | 27 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | 12 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 18.4% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.00 | 7.54 | -0.3 |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 52 | 243 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.7 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 52 | 243 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.7 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 4.85 | 3.65 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 4.85 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | 24 | 0 | 32 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 4.55 | 4.96 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | 24 | 0 | 32 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.21 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 68 | 278 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 2.38 | 2.91 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 68 | 278 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 1.4% | 2.38 | 2.53 | — |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | 57 | 1 | 72 | 301 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 1.9% | 2.74 | 2.53 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | 57 | 1 | 72 | 301 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 2.60 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 17.5% | 1.5% | 2.67 | 2.71 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 17.5% | 1.6% | 2.67 | 2.75 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 39 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 39 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 230 | 1 | 232 | 1006 | 226 | 76 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.25 | +3.6 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 41 | MLB MLE | CHC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB CTX | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.73 | — |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 230 | 1 | 232 | 1006 | 226 | 76 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.25 | +3.6 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 198 | 1 | 200 | 866 | 195 | 65 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 3.60 | 3.25 | +3.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 453 | 3 | 522 | 2265 | 486 | 183 | 53 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 3.60 | +3.5 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 174 | 1 | 200 | 868 | 186 | 70 | 20 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 3.60 | +2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 58 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.20 (+0.27)K% 28.5% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.51% | — | ×0.860 | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.23% | — | ×0.900 | 6.51% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.41% | ÷1.079 | ×1.100 | 2.46% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).
Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 24 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.59 (+0.42)K% 24.3% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.30% | — | ×0.860 | 20.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.41% | — | ×0.900 | 7.57% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.74% | ÷0.984 | ×1.100 | 4.18% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAReno Aces · 43 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.33 (+0.32)K% 25.0% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 25.00% | — | ×0.880 | 22.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.52% | — | ×1.050 | 6.85% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.17% | ÷1.077 | ×1.100 | 2.22% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).
Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAJackson Generals · 25 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.10 (+0.57)K% 29.8% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 29.79% | — | ×0.810 | 24.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.45% | — | ×1.100 | 8.19% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).
Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 32 IPFIP 4.15 → 4.96 (+0.82)K% 23.4% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.40% | — | ×0.880 | 20.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.51% | — | ×1.050 | 8.94% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.55% | ÷0.866 | ×1.100 | 4.50% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).
Result: FIP 4.15 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASalt Lake Bees · 56 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.65 (+0.36)K% 23.9% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.87% | — | ×0.880 | 21.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.29% | — | ×1.050 | 10.80% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.65% | ÷1.035 | ×1.100 | 1.75% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).
Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 49 IPFIP 4.90 → 5.08 (+0.18)K% 15.9% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 15.95% | — | ×0.880 | 14.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 9.91% | — | ×1.050 | 10.41% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.45% | ÷1.127 | ×1.100 | 3.37% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).
Result: FIP 4.90 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 1.6 | 54 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 0.88 | 3.78 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 1.3 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| David Carpenter ('19) | 1.1 | 43 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 0.92 | 3.69 |
| Sam LeCure ('15) | 1.6 | 53 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 0.87 | 3.51 |
| Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*) | 1.1 | 56 | 22.2%* | 9.2%* | 0.96* | 3.97* |
| Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*) | 1.7 | 58 | 18.5%* | 8.2%* | 0.88* | 3.86* |
| Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*) | 1.2 | 47 | 21.0%* | 9.6%* | 0.86* | 4.06* |