Lucas Luetge
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 39
LHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94104vR 113
ERA4.00
FIP4.11
K%21.9%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1088.8
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL+1.0
FB+0.7
CT-5.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 52 | 243 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.7 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 1 | 52 | 243 | 40 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.7 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 4.85 | 3.62 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 48 | 0 | 56 | 243 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 4.85 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 24 | 0 | 32 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 4.55 | 5.42 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 24 | 0 | 32 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.21 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 68 | 278 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 2.38 | 2.86 | — |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 68 | 278 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.6% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 1.4% | 2.38 | 2.53 | — |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 57 | 1 | 72 | 301 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 1.9% | 2.74 | 2.52 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | New York Yankees | 57 | 1 | 72 | 301 | 78 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 2.60 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 17.5% | 1.5% | 2.67 | 2.70 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 50 | 0 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 17.5% | 1.6% | 2.67 | 2.75 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 39 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 39 | 178 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 7.6% | 17.5% | 2.3% | 4.01 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 44 | 1 | 58 | 249 | 71 | 18 | 6 | 2% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.54 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 1 | 146 | 625 | 154 | 39 | 12 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 6.2% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 2.86 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 858 | 211 | 54 | 16 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 6.2% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 3.09 | 2.86 | +5.9 | ||
| Career | — | 343 | 3 | 435 | 1884 | 416 | 150 | 45 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.54 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 1 | 200 | 866 | 191 | 69 | 20 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Luetge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.54 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 47 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2024 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 74 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 43 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.59 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 215 | 37 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 32 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 32 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.44 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.51 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 32 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.72 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.35 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.63 | 3.72 | 164 | 31 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 30 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 29 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 29 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 27 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 26 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 25 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 24 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 23 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 20 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 11 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 8 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 51 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 1.16 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |