Lucas Luetge — OGILVIE

Lucas Luetge P Iowa Cubs

Age 39 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.00

FIP4.10

K%21.0%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.8

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

SL+1.0

FB+0.7

CT-5.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	52	243	40	25	8	3%	1.7	14.0%	10.4%	3.6%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.3
2015	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	52	243	40	25	8	3%	1.7	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.3%	4.99	4.99	-0.3
2016	29	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	48	0	56	243	58	25	4	0%	1.2	21.0%	10.8%	10.2%	1.7%	4.85	3.65	—
2016	29	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	48	0	56	243	58	25	4	0%	1.2	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	1.6%	4.85	3.30	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	0	32	141	33	12	5	0%	1.3	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	4.5%	4.55	4.96	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	24	0	32	141	33	12	5	0%	1.3	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	3.5%	4.55	4.21	—
2019	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	68	278	74	19	4	0%	1.2	22.7%	7.3%	15.4%	1.5%	2.38	2.91	—
2019	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	68	278	74	19	4	0%	1.2	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	1.4%	2.38	2.53	—
2021	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	57	1	72	301	78	14	6	2%	1.3	25.9%	4.7%	21.3%	1.9%	2.74	2.53	+1.8
2021	34	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	57	1	72	301	78	14	6	2%	1.3	25.9%	4.7%	21.3%	2.0%	2.74	2.60	+1.7
2022	35	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	50	0	57	251	60	16	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	6.4%	17.5%	1.5%	2.67	2.71	+1.3
2022	35	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	50	0	57	251	60	16	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	6.4%	17.5%	1.6%	2.67	2.75	+1.2
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	39	178	43	16	6	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.8%	4.81	4.53	+0.0
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	39	178	43	16	6	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.8%	4.81	4.53	+0.0
2023	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	39	178	43	16	6	0%	1.2	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	3.4%	4.81	4.12	+0.2
2024	37	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	44	1	58	249	71	18	6	2%	1.3	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.27	—
2024	37	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	44	1	58	249	71	18	6	2%	1.3	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.27	—
2024	37	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	44	1	58	249	71	18	6	2%	1.3	28.5%	7.2%	21.3%	2.4%	4.01	2.93	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	1	146	625	154	39	12	1%	1.2	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	1.9%	3.09	2.86	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	CHC	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	21.0%	6.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	CHC	45	0	47	199	39	15	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.53	+0.0
2027	40	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.53	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	1	146	625	154	39	12	1%	1.2	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	1.9%	3.09	2.86	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		165	1	200	858	211	54	16	1%	1.2	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	1.9%	3.09	2.86	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		343	3	435	1884	411	146	45	1%	1.3	21.8%	7.8%	14.1%	2.4%	3.70	3.55	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	1	200	866	189	67	21	1%	1.3	21.8%	7.8%	14.1%	2.4%	3.70	3.55	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Luetge (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	21.0%	6.7%	2.8%	—	4.53	19.9%	12.5%	47	+0.43	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	72
Horacio Ramirez L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	39	SU	4.65	5.7%	6.0%	2.3%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	199	45
Darren O'Day R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	39	SU	3.59	27.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	215	37
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	31
Fernando Rodney R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	39	SU	3.43	26.1%	12.0%	1.9%	.288	3.54	25.4%	14.2%	167	+0.11	2.69	295	30
Joaquín Benoit R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	39	SU	3.72	25.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.258	4.48	21.6%	11.7%	50	+0.76	3.58	164	30
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	30
Peter Moylan R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	39	SU	4.77	17.8%	11.6%	3.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	174	29
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	29
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	28
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	28
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	28
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	24
Jason Grilli R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	39	SU	4.13	32.3%	12.4%	4.0%	.264	5.58	26.1%	16.3%	40	+1.45	2.05	133	24
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	21
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	17
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	9
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	51	20.5%	7.0%	1.17	4.15
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38