Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 62 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 45 | 16 | 11 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 5.6% | 4.15 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 62 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 45 | 16 | 11 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 5.4% | 4.15 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 57 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 3.66 | 3.73 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 57 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 3.66 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 48 | 0 | 44 | 182 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 3.30 | 3.48 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 48 | 0 | 44 | 182 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 3.30 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 0 | 63 | 256 | 64 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 2.3% | 21.0% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 2.35 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 0 | 63 | 256 | 64 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 3.1% | 21.9% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 2.48 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 37 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 37 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 40 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 40 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 3.96 | — |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 42 | 10 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 4.7% | 17.7% | 5.2% | 4.63 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 42 | 10 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 5.3% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 4.63 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | COL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.96 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 0 | 175 | 748 | 144 | 61 | 24 | 0% | 0.8 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 240 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 165 | 70 | 27 | 0% | 0.8 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 352 | 0 | 332 | 1402 | 287 | 89 | 44 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 3.90 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 173 | 53 | 27 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fernando Abad (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.96 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 41 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 55 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 45 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 42 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 36 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 40 | SU | 5.63 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 133 | 35 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 33 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 31 |
| Chris Young R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 27 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 12 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 1.26 | 4.53 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |