Fernando Abad
P
Nashville Sounds
+0.1
WAR
Age 40
LHP
6'2" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP6.92
SIERA6.39
K%23.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.6%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1013.7%
K%
p1012.2%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
FB-1.5
CH-2.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 62 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 45 | 16 | 11 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.15 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 57 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 3.66 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 48 | 0 | 44 | 182 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.30 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 62 | 0 | 63 | 256 | 64 | 8 | 5 | 23.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.00 | 2.38 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 42 | 0 | 43 | 192 | 37 | 12 | 6 | 17.6% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 36 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 40 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 37 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 41 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 42 | 10 | 8 | 22.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.63 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | COL | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | COL | 24 | — | 24 | 100 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 352 | 0 | 332 | 1402 | 287 | 89 | 46 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.83 | 3.96 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 173 | 54 | 28 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.83 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fernando Abad (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.75 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 24 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 40 | SU | 3.92 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .238 | 4.13 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 429 | +0.21 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 69 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 41 | SU | 4.55 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 59 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 57 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 444 | 41 |
| Jose Contreras R 2029 · 3.54 FIP | 43 | SW | 3.54 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .263 | 2.98 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.56 | 2.98 | 111 | 40 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 40 | SW | 4.46 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 164 | 40 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 37 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 35 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 40 | SU | 5.70 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.03 | 133 | 34 |
| Chris Young R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 32 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 32 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 27 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 21 |
| Francisco Campos R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 19 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 15 |
| Tim Hudson R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 15 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 40 | SP- | 3.67 | 10.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | .292 | 4.99 | 9.7% | 0.9% | 118 | +1.32 | 3.67 | 428 | 12 |
| Barry Zito L 2023 · 4.55 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.55 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 138 | 0 |
| Brad Penny R 2023 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 0 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.38 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 5.22 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.84 | 4.03 | 375 | 0 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.