Ricky Tiedemann
P
FCL Blue Jays
Age 23
LHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95105vR 114
ERA4.16
FIP4.16
K%25.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 79 | 301 | 117 | 29 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.9% | 11.2% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 2.17 | 2.91 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 79 | 301 | 117 | 29 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 38.9% | 9.6% | 29.2% | 1.0% | 2.17 | 1.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 44 | 186 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 32.2% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 3.68 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 44 | 186 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 44.1% | 12.4% | 31.7% | 0.5% | 3.68 | 1.24 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 8 | 17 | 83 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 2.2 | 32.5% | 19.3% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 5.44 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 8 | 17 | 83 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 2.2 | 32.5% | 19.3% | 13.3% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 5.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 65 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 62 | 263 | 69 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 26.4% | 9.4% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 24 | 102 | 26 | 10 | 3 | — | — | 25.6% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 3.78 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 129 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 151 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +2.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 164 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 161 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 155 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 147 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 136 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 125 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 114 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 102 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 92 | 391 | 91 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.38 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 84 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 118 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 141 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 144 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 142 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 137 | 49 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 127 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 119 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 108 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 97 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 5.10 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 82 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 211 | 1246 | 5260 | 1324 | 497 | 177 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.01 | +20.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 80 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 142 | 578 | 181 | 78 | 11 | 100% | 3.3 | 31.3% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 3.04 | 3.16 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 61 | 200 | 814 | 255 | 110 | 15 | 100% | 3.3 | 31.3% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 3.04 | 3.16 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricky Tiedemann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.01 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 406 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 83 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 80 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 79 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 79 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 78 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 77 |
| Brent Killam L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.35 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .284 | 7.12 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.77 | 4.35 | 121 | 77 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 75 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 73 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 73 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .299 | 5.99 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.89 | 3.10 | 271 | 73 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 73 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 73 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 73 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 73 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 72 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.38 | 23.0% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .273 | 5.49 | 20.1% | 4.3% | 55 | +1.11 | 4.38 | 121 | 72 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 71 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 71 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 121 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 1.29 | 4.32 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |