Ricky Tiedemann — OGILVIE

Ricky Tiedemann P Buffalo Bisons

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%28.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$9M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	79	301	117	29	3	100%	4.4	29.9%	11.2%	18.7%	1.6%	2.17	2.85	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	79	301	117	29	3	100%	4.4	38.9%	9.6%	29.2%	1.0%	2.17	1.73	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	32.2%	15.1%	17.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.74	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	32.2%	15.1%	17.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.74	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	44	186	82	23	1	100%	2.9	44.1%	12.4%	31.7%	0.5%	3.68	1.24	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.44	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.44	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	17	83	27	16	4	100%	2.2	32.5%	19.3%	13.3%	4.8%	5.19	5.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	5	25	7	5	0	0%	1.3	28.0%	20.0%	8.0%	0.0%	1.69	3.29	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	15	2	17	76	24	9	0	13%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.12	—	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	15	2	17	76	24	9	0	13%	1.2	—	—	—	—	3.12	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	TOR	2	2	2	8	4	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	4.50	-1.12	—
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	2	0	2	7	3	0	0	0%	1.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	TOR	7	0	8	36	10	4	0	0%	1.1	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	4.50	2.16	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	TOR	4	0	5	25	7	5	0	0%	1.3	28.0%	20.0%	8.0%	0.0%	1.69	3.27	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TOR	4	0	5	25	7	5	0	0%	1.3	28.0%	20.0%	8.0%	0.0%	1.69	3.27	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	28.0%	11.3%	16.7%	2.9%	4.16	4.16	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	28.0%	11.3%	16.7%	2.9%	4.16	4.16	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	23	101	31	12	1	—	—	30.7%	11.7%	19.0%	0.7%	3.38	1.05	+1.1
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	11	47	31	12	1	—	—	65.5%	25.0%	40.5%	1.5%	7.00	1.58	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	118	499	140	54	14	100%	5.6	28.0%	10.7%	17.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.01	+1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	138	581	162	58	16	100%	5.7	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+1.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	150	632	176	62	18	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.9%	17.9%	2.8%	3.95	3.92	+1.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	148	623	172	62	18	100%	5.9	27.7%	9.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.96	3.96	+1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	143	604	166	61	18	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.05	+1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	137	577	158	59	18	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.3%	17.0%	3.1%	4.11	4.18	+1.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	128	543	146	57	18	100%	6.1	27.0%	10.6%	16.4%	3.3%	4.26	4.36	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	120	506	134	55	18	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.9%	15.6%	3.5%	4.44	4.56	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	111	468	122	53	18	100%	6.2	26.1%	11.3%	14.8%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	102	429	110	51	17	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.8%	13.8%	4.1%	4.88	5.03	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	112	473	132	51	13	100%	5.6	28.0%	10.7%	17.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.01	+1.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	131	553	154	56	15	100%	6.0	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+1.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	24	24	142	600	167	59	17	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.9%	17.9%	2.8%	3.95	3.92	+1.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	140	591	164	59	17	100%	6.1	27.7%	9.9%	17.8%	2.9%	3.96	3.96	+1.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	136	574	158	58	17	100%	5.9	27.6%	10.1%	17.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.05	+1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	130	549	150	56	17	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.3%	17.0%	3.1%	4.11	4.18	+1.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	122	515	139	54	17	100%	6.1	27.0%	10.6%	16.4%	3.3%	4.26	4.36	+0.8
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	114	481	128	53	17	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.9%	15.6%	3.5%	4.44	4.56	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	105	443	116	50	17	100%	5.8	26.1%	11.3%	14.8%	3.8%	4.65	4.78	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	105	48	17	100%	6.1	25.6%	11.8%	13.8%	4.1%	4.88	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		216	207	1240	5239	1427	552	164	96%	5.7	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	3.1%	4.19	3.85	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	230	89	26	96%	5.7	27.2%	10.5%	16.7%	3.1%	4.19	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		56	43	157	646	201	87	10	77%	2.8	31.1%	13.4%	17.7%	1.6%	3.03	3.04	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	55	200	821	255	110	13	77%	2.8	31.1%	13.4%	17.7%	1.6%	3.03	3.04	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricky Tiedemann (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	28.0%	11.3%	2.9%	—	3.95	27.9%	17.7%	406	-0.21	—	—	—
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	78
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	76
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	73
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	71
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	68
DL Hall L 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	31.5%	14.0%	2.8%	.343	4.13	21.8%	10.6%	190	+0.39	3.49	539	67
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.24	24.9%	6.8%	152	-0.42	2.97	282	67
Matt Strahm L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	24.5%	9.6%	3.4%	.242	3.79	24.7%	16.6%	235	-0.29	1.68	757	67
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	67
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	67
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	66
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	66
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	66
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	66
Sam Long L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	21.3%	8.2%	2.8%	.270	4.17	21.9%	12.2%	141	+0.32	3.10	446	65
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	65
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	65
Aaron Ashby L 2021 · 3.05 FIP	23	SW	3.05	31.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.330	3.87	23.3%	11.3%	220	+0.82	2.43	646	64
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	126	27.3%	10.5%	1.21	4.20
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12