Carter Holton — OGILVIE

Carter Holton P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 191 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%20.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	5.63	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	5.63	—
2024	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	10	8	42	177	41	16	5	80%	4.2	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	4.5%	4.32	5.64	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	10	8	42	177	41	16	5	80%	4.2	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	4.5%	4.32	5.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	ATL	3	2	8	34	11	3	0	67%	2.7	32.4%	8.8%	23.5%	0.0%	1.12	1.49	—
2026	23	A RAW	ATL	7	6	34	143	30	13	5	86%	4.8	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	3.5%	5.08	4.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	60	252	55	27	8	100%	5.4	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.62	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	255	57	26	8	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.54	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	255	57	26	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	252	56	26	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.54	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	26	110	24	12	3	100%	5.2	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.62	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	37	17	5	100%	5.7	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.54	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	48	203	45	20	6	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	51	215	48	22	7	100%	6.4	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	164	694	154	71	21	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	86	26	100%	5.9	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		11	9	44	187	30	23	8	82%	4.0	16.3%	12.3%	4.0%	4.3%	4.74	5.64	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	856	140	105	37	82%	4.0	16.3%	12.3%	4.0%	4.3%	4.74	5.64	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Holton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.55	22.1%	11.8%	181	-0.23	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	86
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	85
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	85
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	85
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	84
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	84
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	83
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	80
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	80
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	78
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	78
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	21.9%	10.4%	1.16	4.62
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93