Carter Holton
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 191 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 124
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
K%21.7%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 30.0% | 40.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 5.63 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 30.0% | 40.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 8 | 6 | 32 | 137 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 75% | 4.0 | 17.2% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 5.0% | 5.12 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 93 | 397 | 91 | 36 | 12 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 64 | 379 | 1600 | 363 | 162 | 51 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 86 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 9 | 7 | 34 | 147 | 27 | 13 | 7 | 78% | 3.7 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 5.61 | 5.31 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 42 | 200 | 873 | 158 | 80 | 41 | 78% | 3.7 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 5.61 | 5.31 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carter Holton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 191 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 90 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 88 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 86 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 86 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 84 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 84 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 84 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 83 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 83 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 82 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 81 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 4.65 | 17.8% | 1.7% | 139 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 234 | 80 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 79 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 79 |
| Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 79 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 79 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 60 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.22 | 4.57 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |