Ty Floyd — OGILVIE

Ty Floyd P Dayton Dragons

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%21.5%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL4050

CMD3550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	8	8	28	109	31	11	4	100%	3.5	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	4.6%	3.25	5.37	—
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	8	8	28	109	31	11	4	100%	3.5	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	4.6%	3.25	5.37	—
2025	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	8	8	28	109	31	11	4	100%	3.5	28.4%	10.1%	18.3%	3.7%	3.25	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	8	32	130	37	18	3	80%	3.2	18.3%	19.7%	-1.4%	2.4%	3.09	5.36	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	10	8	32	130	37	18	3	80%	3.2	18.3%	19.7%	-1.4%	2.4%	3.09	5.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CIN	2	2	7	25	12	0	1	100%	3.5	48.0%	0.0%	48.0%	4.0%	1.29	1.24	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CIN	8	6	25	105	25	18	2	75%	3.1	23.8%	17.1%	6.7%	1.9%	3.60	4.31	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	5	22	5	2	1	100%	5.2	21.5%	11.2%	10.4%	3.1%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	37	152	42	20	4	—	—	27.5%	13.5%	14.0%	2.4%	3.33	5.28	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	244	54	25	7	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.62	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	58	244	55	25	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.60	4.57	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	240	54	25	7	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.59	4.60	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	25	106	23	11	4	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.79	4.75	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	36	16	5	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.3%	4.73	4.70	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	42	19	6	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.74	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	453	101	47	15	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.35	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	88	28	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.75	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		18	16	60	239	47	39	8	89%	3.3	19.6%	16.2%	3.4%	3.4%	3.17	5.36	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	54	200	801	157	129	27	89%	3.3	19.6%	16.2%	3.4%	3.4%	3.17	5.36	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Floyd (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	21.5%	11.2%	3.1%	—	4.60	22.3%	12.0%	172	-0.18	—	—	—
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	83
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	78
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	77
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	77
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	77
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	77
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	22.1%	10.5%	1.19	4.66
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64