Edgardo Ibarra prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Edgardo Ibarra P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%20.9%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers West	16	12	41	187	48	26	8	75%	2.6	17.5%	17.4%	0.1%	6.6%	6.31	7.46	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers West	16	12	41	187	48	26	8	75%	2.6	25.7%	13.9%	11.8%	4.3%	6.31	5.18	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	41	170	41	21	4	31%	3.2	16.2%	16.6%	-0.3%	2.8%	3.51	5.37	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	41	170	41	21	4	31%	3.2	24.1%	12.4%	11.8%	2.4%	3.51	3.90	—
2023	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	17	14	63	282	55	48	4	82%	3.7	14.4%	20.1%	-5.7%	1.5%	5.00	5.26	—
2023	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	17	14	63	282	55	48	4	82%	3.7	14.4%	20.1%	-5.7%	1.5%	5.00	5.26	—
2023	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	17	14	63	282	55	48	4	82%	3.7	19.5%	17.0%	2.5%	1.4%	5.00	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	14.6%	6.3%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	191	42	25	6	100%	5.7	21.8%	12.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.97	4.88	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	46	193	43	23	6	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.79	4.69	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	46	193	44	22	6	100%	5.7	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.65	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	190	43	22	6	100%	5.6	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	44	185	41	22	6	100%	6.2	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	3	3	19	80	17	10	2	100%	6.3	21.8%	12.8%	8.9%	2.9%	4.97	4.88	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	30	127	28	15	4	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.79	4.69	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	34	18	4	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.5%	11.0%	2.9%	4.70	4.65	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	36	19	5	100%	6.3	22.5%	11.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	39	165	37	19	5	100%	6.5	22.4%	11.7%	10.7%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	163	689	154	81	21	100%	5.8	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.34	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	99	26	100%	5.9	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		46	30	145	639	101	117	21	65%	3.2	15.8%	18.4%	-2.6%	3.4%	4.95	5.93	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	41	200	879	139	161	29	65%	3.2	15.8%	18.4%	-2.6%	3.4%	4.95	5.93	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgardo Ibarra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	20.9%	14.6%	3.0%	—	4.74	22.2%	10.1%	137	-0.45	—	—	—
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	87
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	81
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	81
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	81
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	80
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	79
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	78
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	76
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	75
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	75
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	75
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	73
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	73
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	73
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	73
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	73
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	72
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	22.1%	12.3%	1.15	4.84
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44