Andrew Pinckney
OF Rochester Red Wings| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA/AAWSH | 580 | .258/.330/.362 | 8 | 27 | 68 | — | .232/.288/.318 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAAWSH | 509 | .269/.350/.431 | 20 | 34 | 84 | — | .242/.308/.366 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAAWSH | 414 | .270/.349/.437 | 16 | 20 | 77 | — | .232/.290/.348 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBWSH | 29 | .280/.333/.480 | 1 | 1 | 119 | -0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 46 | .227/.289/.343 | 1 | 2 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 108 | .227/.289/.344 | 3 | 4 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 28 | MLBWSH | 126 | .226/.289/.342 | 3 | 5 | 79 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 235 | 235 | 471 | 308 | 24 | 0 | 213 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 83 | 68 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 324 | 446 | 412 | 858 | 88 | 429 | 22 | 16 | 394 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 82 | 73 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 329 | 402 | 534 | 937 | 205 | 389 | 20 | 5 | 414 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 93 | 83 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 253 | 333 | 337 | 671 | 84 | 444 | 40 | 8 | 309 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 487 | 437 | 113 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 130 | 10 | 22 | 9 | 259 | 329 | 366 | 695 | 108 | 351 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 450 | 121 | 9 | 2 | 20 | 44 | 148 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 269 | 350 | 431 | 781 | 162 | 356 | 29 | 9 | 348 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 29 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 333 | 480 | 813 | 200 | 375 | 34 | 3 | 333 | 119 | +1 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 414 | 366 | 99 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 127 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 270 | 349 | 437 | 786 | 167 | 369 | 31 | 10 | 348 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 29 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 333 | 480 | 813 | 200 | 375 | 34 | 3 | 333 | 111 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 235 | 235 | 471 | 303 | 29 | 0 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 83 | 73 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 274 | 361 | 356 | 718 | 82 | 380 | 29 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 82 | 75 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 267 | 329 | 413 | 743 | 147 | 349 | 27 | 2 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 93 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 82 | 415 | 49 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 487 | 449 | 107 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 157 | 10 | 22 | 9 | 238 | 292 | 325 | 617 | 87 | 350 | 32 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 462 | 112 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 173 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 242 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 123 | 343 | 34 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 29 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 333 | 480 | 813 | 200 | 375 | 34 | 3 | 345 | 119 | +1 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 414 | 379 | 88 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 152 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 232 | 290 | 348 | 639 | 116 | 351 | 37 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 165 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 261 | 330 | 358 | 687 | 97 | 360 | 28 | 5 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 182 | 158 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 316 | 407 | 449 | 856 | 133 | 397 | 21 | 9 | 386 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 533 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 204 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 235 | 292 | 321 | 612 | 86 | 366 | 35 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 580 | 520 | 134 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 167 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 258 | 330 | 362 | 691 | 104 | 363 | 29 | 7 | 313 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 462 | 112 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 173 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 242 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 123 | 351 | 34 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 450 | 121 | 9 | 2 | 20 | 44 | 148 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 269 | 350 | 431 | 781 | 162 | 356 | 29 | 9 | 348 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 404 | 95 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 235 | 293 | 356 | 649 | 121 | 355 | 37 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 391 | 106 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 43 | 137 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 271 | 348 | 440 | 788 | 169 | 369 | 31 | 10 | 347 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 163 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 264 | 330 | 362 | 692 | 98 | 359 | 28 | 5 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 532 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 204 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 235 | 292 | 321 | 613 | 86 | 360 | 35 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 460 | 112 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 173 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 243 | 308 | 367 | 676 | 124 | 343 | 34 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 407 | 95 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 233 | 293 | 354 | 647 | 120 | 353 | 37 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 532 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 204 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 235 | 292 | 321 | 613 | 86 | 360 | 35 | 5 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 509 | 460 | 112 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 173 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 243 | 308 | 367 | 676 | 124 | 343 | 34 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 407 | 95 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 233 | 293 | 354 | 647 | 120 | 353 | 37 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 30% | 380 | 347 | 79 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 129 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 228 | 289 | 345 | 634 | 117 | 329 | 34 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -9 | +2 | +1 | -2 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 30% | 46 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 116 | 328 | 35 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 37% | 290 | 265 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 97 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 227 | 290 | 345 | 635 | 118 | 326 | 33 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 42% | 300 | 273 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 99 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 227 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 117 | 323 | 33 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 43% | 294 | 268 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 97 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 224 | 287 | 339 | 626 | 115 | 318 | 33 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 37% | 108 | 98 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 117 | 326 | 33 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 42% | 126 | 115 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 289 | 342 | 631 | 116 | 323 | 33 | 6 | 284 | 79 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 43% | 127 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 286 | 338 | 624 | 114 | 317 | 33 | 6 | 281 | 77 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 390 | 354 | 80 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 130 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 226 | 288 | 342 | 630 | 116 | 320 | 33 | 6 | 287 | 78 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +8 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 134 | 15 | 2 | 17 | 40 | 217 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 227 | 290 | 346 | 635 | 119 | 321 | 33 | 6 | 287 | 78 | -15 | +2 | +1 | -8 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2753 | 2512 | 589 | 68 | 13 | 61 | 171 | 936 | 49 | 130 | 37 | 234 | 296 | 345 | 641 | 110 | 346 | 34 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -26 | +3 | +2 | -9 | +23 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 139 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 221 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 234 | 296 | 342 | 638 | 108 | 346 | 34 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -16 | +2 | +1 | -5 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 414 PAwOBA .340 → .282 (−59)K% 30.7% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 29.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.77% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .340 → .282; ISO .167 → .121; BABIP .369 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 509 PAwOBA .341 → .292 (−48)K% 29.1% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.08% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.80% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.033 | 29.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.033 | 2.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.033 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.62% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .341 → .292; ISO .162 → .122; BABIP .356 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 487 PAwOBA .307 → .274 (−33)K% 26.7% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.69% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.39% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.04% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.51% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.28% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .307 → .274; ISO .108 → .093; BABIP .351 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 93 PAwOBA .301 → .235 (−66)K% 39.8% → 49.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.78% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.53% | ÷0.969 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.96% | ÷1.029 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 35.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .301 → .235; ISO .084 → .059; BABIP .444 → .415. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 83 PAwOBA .385 → .308 (−77)K% 21.7% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.69% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.66% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.41% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 33.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .385 → .308; ISO .088 → .082; BABIP .429 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 82 PAwOBA .403 → .325 (−78)K% 19.5% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 2.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 24.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .403 → .325; ISO .205 → .162; BABIP .389 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 17 PAwOBA .207 → .190 (−17)K% 23.5% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 30.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .207 → .190; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .308 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).