Jordyn Adams

CF Nashville Sounds

Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 181 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAALAA	549	.261/.336/.386	10	28	65	—	.221/.282/.314
2024	24	MLBLAA	38	.229/.289/.314	1	2	73	-0.7
2025	25	AAABAL	310	.213/.293/.379	10	14	49	—	.184/.240/.307
2026	26	AAA/AAMIL	105	.198/.298/.363	3	7	45	—	.170/.250/.299
2027PROJ10% MLB	27	MLBMIL	12	.202/.264/.332	0	1	67	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	28	MLBMIL	61	.203/.265/.331	2	4	67	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed99

Max EV77

Chase%57

BB%15

K%7

Whiff%7

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsLane Adams (age 29) · Kevin Mattison (age 27) · Matt Gorski (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .264 / .332

PA12

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO123

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.203

POWER50

Barrel%

102.0

Avg EV

1084.5

Bat Spd

1267.3

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

9029.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	122	105	28	6	3	0	14	30	2	5	3	267	364	381	745	114	368	25	11	336	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	40	35	8	1	1	1	5	14	0	0	1	229	325	400	725	171	350	35	12	325	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Burlington Bees	—	428	372	93	15	2	7	50	94	5	12	5	250	347	358	704	108	316	22	12	323	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	307	277	60	7	2	5	28	116	1	18	4	217	291	310	601	94	350	38	9	275	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	236	209	52	7	2	4	21	70	4	15	0	249	329	359	688	110	350	30	9	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	249	219	50	11	3	0	21	54	5	18	3	228	310	306	616	78	299	22	8	281	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	40	39	5	0	0	0	0	16	0	1	2	128	128	128	256		208	40	0	113	-37	-7	-1	-2	-6	+1	-1.4
2023	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	480	415	111	25	6	15	53	133	4	44	5	267	356	465	821	198	352	28	11	358	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	38	35	8	0	0	1	3	12	0	2	0	229	289	314	604	86	318	32	8	277	73	-1	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.7
2024	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	549	482	126	22	4	10	51	148	4	28	11	261	336	386	722	124	352	27	9	320	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	310	272	58	7	4	10	29	94	2	14	5	213	293	379	671	165	281	30	9	295	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	54	49	10	1	2	0	3	20	1	4	0	204	264	306	570	102	345	37	6	253	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	51	42	8	1	0	3	7	14	2	3	0	190	333	429	762	238	200	27	14	343	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	78	74	13	0	0	1	3	28	0	3	2	176	208	216	424	41	261	36	4	193	17	-8	-0	-2	-12	+2	-2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	122	110	21	4	2	0	9	43	2	5	3	191	264	264	528	73	307	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	40	36	7	1	1	1	4	19	0	0	1	194	275	361	636	167	310	48	10	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	428	389	75	11	2	6	33	131	5	12	5	193	265	278	542	85	270	31	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	307	286	46	6	1	4	19	152	1	18	4	161	216	231	446	70	316	50	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	236	216	46	6	2	3	14	84	4	15	0	213	274	301	574	88	323	36	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	249	226	43	10	2	0	14	70	5	18	3	190	253	252	505	62	265	28	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	40	39	5	0	0	0	0	16	0	1	2	128	128	128	256		208	40	0	113	-37	-7	-1	-2	-6	+1	-1.4
2023	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	480	430	99	22	7	11	38	158	4	44	5	230	299	391	689	160	320	33	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	38	35	8	0	0	1	3	12	0	2	0	229	289	314	604	86	318	32	8	275	73	-1	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.7
2024	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	549	497	110	16	3	8	38	183	4	28	11	221	282	314	596	93	318	33	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	310	283	52	6	4	7	19	117	2	14	5	184	240	307	548	124	269	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	54	50	9	1	2	0	2	24	1	4	0	180	226	280	506	100	321	44	4	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	51	44	7	1	0	2	5	17	2	3	0	159	275	318	593	159	175	33	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	122	110	21	4	2	0	9	43	2	5	3	191	264	264	528	73	309	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	—	122	105	28	6	3	0	14	30	2	5	3	267	364	381	745	114	368	25	11	336	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	468	425	80	12	2	6	37	150	5	12	6	188	261	268	529	80	274	32	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	468	407	101	16	3	8	55	108	5	12	6	248	345	361	706	113	318	23	12	323	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	307	286	46	6	1	4	19	152	1	18	4	161	216	231	446	70	321	50	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	307	277	60	7	2	5	28	116	1	18	4	217	291	310	601	94	350	38	9	275	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	485	441	89	16	4	3	29	153	9	33	3	202	265	277	542	75	298	32	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	485	428	102	18	5	4	42	124	9	33	3	238	319	332	651	93	322	26	9	295	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	520	469	104	22	7	11	38	174	4	45	7	222	286	369	655	147	320	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	520	454	116	25	6	15	53	149	4	45	7	256	339	436	775	181	340	29	10	339	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	587	532	118	16	3	9	41	195	4	30	11	222	282	314	596	92	326	33	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	587	517	134	22	4	11	54	160	4	30	11	259	333	381	714	122	349	27	9	317	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	310	283	52	6	4	7	19	117	2	14	5	184	240	307	548	124	278	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	310	272	58	7	4	10	29	94	2	14	5	213	293	379	671	165	281	30	9	295	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	105	94	16	2	2	2	7	41	3	7	0	170	250	298	548	128	275	39	7	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	105	91	18	2	2	3	10	34	3	7	0	198	298	363	661	165	278	32	10	297	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	122	110	21	4	2	0	9	43	2	5	3	191	264	264	528	73	307	35	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	468	423	80	12	2	6	37	150	5	12	6	189	261	270	531	80	273	32	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	307	284	46	6	1	4	19	152	1	18	4	162	216	232	448	70	316	50	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	485	444	89	16	4	3	29	153	9	33	3	200	265	275	540	74	293	32	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	520	473	104	22	7	11	38	174	4	45	7	220	286	366	651	146	311	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	587	537	118	16	3	9	41	195	4	30	11	220	282	311	593	91	318	33	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	310	286	52	6	4	7	19	117	2	14	5	182	240	304	544	122	269	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	105	94	16	2	2	2	7	41	3	7	0	170	250	298	548	128	250	39	7	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	587	537	118	16	3	9	41	195	4	30	11	220	282	311	593	91	318	33	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	310	286	52	6	4	7	19	117	2	14	5	182	240	304	544	122	269	38	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	105	94	16	2	2	2	7	41	3	7	0	170	250	298	548	128	250	39	7	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10%	200	183	38	5	2	5	13	67	2	13	2	204	265	331	596	127	287	34	6	267	67	-8	+2	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	202	264	332	595	129	284	33	8	267	67	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	31%	196	179	37	5	2	5	13	65	2	11	2	204	266	331	596	127	287	33	7	267	67	-8	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	31%	61	56	11	1	0	2	4	20	1	4	1	203	265	331	596	128	283	33	7	267	67	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	139	130	24	1	0	3	7	48	1	7	3	185	232	262	493	77	263	35	5	225	56	-10	+0	-2	-12	+3	-2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	608	113	5	0	14	33	224	5	33	14	186	234	263	497	77	264	34	5	225	56	-47	+1	-11	-54	+14	-10.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3224	2933	586	92	28	50	220	1132	33	183	42	200	263	301	565	102	302	35	7	250	56	-20	+2	-4	-11	+9	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	119	19	6	10	44	228	7	37	8	201	265	305	569	103	304	35	7	250	56	-33	+4	-6	-18	+14	-3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 54 PAwOBA .247 → .209 (−38)K% 37.0% → 44.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	44.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.84%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.75%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.003	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.003	2.87%
Triples /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.003	6.71%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .247 → .209; ISO .102 → .090; BABIP .345 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 51 PAwOBA .334 → .260 (−74)K% 27.5% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.45%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.73%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.978	9.13%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.840	—	×0.978	3.22%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.978	12.85%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.978	3.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.978	8.38%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .334 → .260; ISO .238 → .186; BABIP .200 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 310 PAwOBA .290 → .241 (−49)K% 30.3% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.32%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	37.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.35%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.18%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.62%
Singles /BIP	20.79%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.996	×1.018	20.42%
Doubles /BIP	3.93%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.996	×1.018	3.38%
Triples /BIP	2.25%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.996	×1.018	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	5.62%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .290 → .241; ISO .165 → .133; BABIP .281 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 549 PAwOBA .315 → .264 (−51)K% 27.0% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.96%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	33.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.29%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.02%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.71%
Singles /BIP	26.95%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.015	×1.033	25.51%
Doubles /BIP	6.59%	÷1.141	×0.830	×1.015	×1.033	5.03%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.015	×1.033	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .315 → .264; ISO .124 → .097; BABIP .352 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 480 PAwOBA .353 → .297 (−55)K% 27.7% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.71%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	32.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.04%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.95%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.82%
Singles /BIP	23.05%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.993	×1.048	21.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.87%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.993	×1.048	7.92%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.993	×1.048	2.39%
Home runs /BIP	5.32%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .353 → .297; ISO .198 → .164; BABIP .352 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 249 PAwOBA .276 → .226 (−50)K% 21.7% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.69%	÷1.046	×1.350	—	—	27.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.43%	÷1.027	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.82%
HBP% /PA	2.01%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	1.62%
Singles /BIP	21.82%	÷1.052	×0.910	×1.030	×0.998	19.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.939	×0.830	×1.030	×0.998	6.06%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.030	×0.998	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.814	×0.830	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 110, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 109, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .276 → .226; ISO .078 → .064; BABIP .299 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 236 PAwOBA .306 → .255 (−51)K% 29.7% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.66%	÷1.023	×1.220	—	—	35.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷1.041	×0.680	—	×1.027	5.97%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.46%
Singles /BIP	28.06%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.994	×1.027	25.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.04%	÷0.978	×0.910	×0.994	×1.027	4.79%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.994	×1.027	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷1.131	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.09%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .306 → .255; ISO .110 → .090; BABIP .350 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 307 PAwOBA .269 → .200 (−69)K% 37.8% → 49.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.79%	÷1.028	×1.350	—	—	49.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.12%	÷1.047	×0.710	—	×1.012	6.26%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	0.27%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.069	×0.910	×1.050	×1.012	25.85%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.913	×0.830	×1.050	×1.012	4.20%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.050	×1.012	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	3.11%	÷0.923	×0.830	—	×1.012	2.83%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 114, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .269 → .200; ISO .094 → .071; BABIP .350 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jordyn Adams (OGILVIE)	27	35	50	55	45	202/263/328	126	287	3	8	34%	7%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→45	44→50	59→60	39	204/264/322	118	306	12	32	36%	7%	65	-1.2	200/265/339	139	316	16	17	39%	7%	70	-0.8	173/242/321	148	270	18	14	41%	7%	54	-1.2
✕Kevin Mattison 2013 · AAA	27	41→47	42→45	57→60	40	203/260/314	111	282	9	26	30%	6%	61	-1.5	182/240/293	111	303	10	22	41%	6%	49	-2.4	149/209/251	102	268	8	25	45%	6%	27	-2.1
✕Matt Gorski 2024 · AAA	26	36→34	51→55	56→55	37	196/245/348	152	264	20	21	34%	6%	65	-1.2	202/250/363	161	283	20	16	35%	6%	70	-0.9	190/239/355	165	267	20	14	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Isaac Galloway 2017 · AAA	27	41→42	41→45	53→55	36	205/240/299	95	279	9	22	30%	4%	50	-2.3	215/262/345	130	286	15	24	29%	5%	70	-0.9	205/252/344	139	272	17	25	31%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Ryan Strausborger 2017 · MLB	29	44→47	42→45	56→55	41	216/261/318	102	274	10	26	25%	5%	63	-1.4	212/277/316	104	306	10	17	32%	7%	69	-0.9	173/262/243	70	286	3	15	37%	9%	46	-0.6
✕Michael Reed 2021 · AA	26	39→42	44→45	55	36	198/248/312	115	292	12	25	36%	6%	57	-1.8	203/263/298	95	329	8	18	38%	7%	59	-1.7	185/249/270	85	306	7	22	39%	7%	44	-0.6
✕Tanner English 2018 · AAA	25	36→44	41→45	60→55	38	173/250/274	101	299	8	27	42%	8%	50	-2.3	175/230/273	98	292	8	19	40%	5%	41	-3.0	158/202/252	95	255	6	19	39%	4%	23	-1.8
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	42	35→30	63→70	41	201/255/252	52	276	3	41	27%	6%	45	-2.7	208/282/290	82	312	5	43	32%	8%	65	-1.2	202/301/280	78	308	0	73	30%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	37	41→45	54→65	34	178/235/270	92	300	9	24	42%	6%	42	-2.9	219/296/330	111	331	12	25	34%	9%	80	-0.2	220/296/327	107	310	12	41	30%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Franklin Barreto 2023 · MLB	27	35→45	42→55	51→50	37	171/241/269	98	299	10	18	44%	8%	45	-2.7	198/264/334	136	290	16	14	36%	7%	68	-1.0	146/211/303	157	169	24	9	32%	6%	39	-0.6
✕Rico Noel 2017 · AAA	28	43→53	36→30	59→65	41	203/261/266	63	285	4	37	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/249/298	95	295	9	23	33%	5%	53	-2.1	185/220/270	85	268	9	29	33%	3%	33	-0.9
✕Granden Goetzman 2018 · AAA	25	44→45	41→45	57→55	39	216/254/315	99	286	8	24	27%	5%	59	-1.7	202/245/328	126	272	12	11	29%	5%	59	-1.7	179/222/313	134	235	14	3	30%	5%	45	-1.2
✕Michael O'Neill 2018 · AA	26	43→41	43→45	53→55	36	210/258/321	112	298	10	18	32%	5%	62	-1.4	214/264/311	97	311	9	20	32%	5%	62	-1.4	210/259/292	82	306	8	23	33%	5%	53	-1.6
✕Aaron Whitefield 2022 · AA	25	44→48	38→40	56→60	39	209/262/287	78	312	6	29	33%	6%	55	-1.9	214/270/325	111	322	10	30	34%	7%	68	-1.0	198/256/320	122	300	11	40	36%	7%	60	-0.6
✕Jared Hoying 2016 · AAA	27	35→45	50→55	54→55	37	194/232/351	157	245	18	17	30%	4%	60	-1.6	208/254/344	136	258	15	19	25%	5%	66	-1.1	209/257/337	128	256	14	21	24%	5%	63	-1.1
✕Delvin Zinn 2022 · AA	25	40→44	37→30	56→55	40	194/244/261	66	264	5	32	28%	6%	42	-2.9	189/254/265	76	268	5	26	29%	7%	49	-2.4	118/208/156	38	181	0	39	31%	8%	8	-1.2
✕Todd Hankins 2018 · AAA	27	42→49	39→40	52→55	38	202/245/284	81	286	7	19	31%	5%	48	-2.5	222/271/312	90	320	7	21	31%	6%	65	-1.2	245/294/325	80	354	4	31	30%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Jose Siri 2021 · AAA	26	40→50	44→60	54→55	35	199/245/312	113	310	12	21	39%	6%	55	-1.9	237/284/419	182	340	22	24	35%	5%	95	+1.0	235/282/445	210	322	27	25	35%	5%	100	+0.9
✕Ryan Knox 2006 · AAA	29	40	40	51→55	40	200/254/285	85	262	8	24	26%	5%	53	-2.1	191/245/288	97	263	9	16	30%	5%	50	-2.3	130/182/204	74	183	7	11	32%	4%	5	-2.0
✕Champ Stuart 2018 · AA	25	40→39	38→30	59→60	36	183/245/258	75	320	6	31	42%	7%	43	-2.8	194/263/293	99	319	10	25	39%	8%	59	-1.7	106/204/195	89	165	13	37	43%	11%	14	-1.1