Grant McCray

CF Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.732 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AAA/AASF	421	.242/.330/.446	12	14	74	—	.205/.273/.355
2024	23	MLBSF	130	.202/.238/.379	5	5	75	-0.2
2025	24	AAASF	510	.250/.334/.417	15	27	76	—	.224/.286/.365
2025	24	MLBSF	26	.091/.167/.182	0	0	-11	-0.9
2026	25	AAASF	244	.233/.357/.356	4	12	67	—	.201/.290/.294
2026	25	MLBSF	91	.143/.250/.273	2	8	44	-0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBSF	107	.207/.281/.354	3	6	83	0.1
2028PROJ56% MLB	27	MLBSF	162	.206/.280/.351	4	9	82	0.1
2029PROJ62% MLB	28	MLBSF	185	.205/.278/.347	5	9	80	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.732First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.2M2031Arb-2$0.4M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Barrel%76

Bat Spd70

Avg EV44

xwOBA14

Form.206/.279/.357 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .211/.283/.366

CompsElijah Dunham (age 26) · Cade Marlowe (age 27) · Estevan Florial (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6883vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .281 / .354

PA107

HR3

SB6

K%29

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO156

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.194

POWER50

Barrel%

7612.1

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

7073.4

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.5

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%30%▼33% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 29%

BB%9%·9% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.151·.133 over 30 AB (60d) · proj .154

BABIP.271·.278 over 18 BIP (60d) · proj .271

SLASH.206/.279/.357·proj .211/.283/.366

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 152 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

126

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

217

266

▶▶R

ISO

167

168

—

BABIP

222

310

▶▶R

53.8%

40.5%

▶▶R

BB%

7.7%

4.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.732 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	—	220	185	50	5	2	1	30	54	3	17	13	270	381	335	716	65	374	25	14	331	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	San Jose Giants	—	88	80	20	2	2	2	6	30	0	4	1	250	302	400	702	150	367	34	7	305	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	65	55	17	3	1	1	9	20	0	3	1	309	406	455	861	145	457	31	14	380	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	62	52	14	2	0	2	9	22	1	8	0	269	387	423	810	154	429	35	15	368	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	San Jose Giants	—	507	436	127	21	9	21	58	148	9	35	10	291	386	525	911	234	391	29	11	397	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	584	494	126	26	6	14	72	171	12	52	10	255	363	417	780	162	357	29	12	349	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	130	124	25	3	2	5	6	56	0	5	0	202	238	379	617	177	317	43	5	271	75	-4	+1	-4	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	213	191	52	12	4	6	21	54	1	8	3	272	347	471	819	199	351	25	10	361	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	208	181	38	14	3	6	24	67	3	6	0	210	312	420	732	210	296	32	12	326	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	26	22	2	0	1	0	2	11	0	0	0	91	167	182	348	91	167	42	8	151	-11	-3	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.9
2025	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	510	444	111	19	5	15	55	138	1	27	3	250	334	417	751	167	322	27	11	329	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	91	77	11	2	1	2	11	28	0	8	0	143	250	273	523	130	191	31	12	236	44	-6	+2	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2026	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	244	202	47	11	1	4	37	56	2	12	2	233	357	356	713	124	297	23	15	325	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	247	223	38	5	4	7	19	95	0	13	0	170	236	323	558	152	254	38	8	245	52	-14	+3	-4	-3	+5	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	—	220	196	37	3	1	1	19	78	3	17	13	189	271	230	500	41	303	35	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	88	82	14	1	1	1	4	43	0	4	1	171	209	244	453	73	344	49	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	65	58	12	1	1	1	6	29	0	3	1	207	281	310	592	103	343	45	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	62	54	11	2	0	1	7	29	1	8	0	204	306	296	603	93	389	47	11	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	507	456	101	16	8	14	38	213	9	35	10	221	294	384	678	162	367	42	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	584	513	97	19	5	10	53	226	12	52	10	189	280	304	584	115	300	39	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	130	124	25	3	2	5	6	56	0	5	0	202	238	379	617	177	317	43	5	279	75	-4	+1	-4	+2	+3	-0.2
2024	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	213	197	48	10	4	4	15	60	1	8	3	244	300	396	696	152	333	28	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	208	188	31	10	3	4	17	80	3	6	0	165	245	314	559	149	258	38	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	26	22	2	0	1	0	2	11	0	0	0	91	167	182	348	91	167	42	8	152	-11	-3	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.9
2025	24	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	510	460	103	17	6	12	39	164	1	27	3	224	286	365	651	141	301	32	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	91	78	11	2	1	2	10	28	0	8	0	141	239	269	508	128	191	31	11	233	44	-6	+2	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2026	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	244	214	43	9	1	3	25	67	2	12	2	201	290	294	585	93	268	27	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	—	220	196	37	3	1	1	19	78	3	17	13	189	271	230	500	41	305	35	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	—	220	185	50	5	2	1	30	54	3	17	13	270	381	335	716	65	374	25	14	331	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	153	141	27	3	2	2	9	71	0	7	2	191	240	284	524	92	357	46	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	153	135	37	5	3	3	15	50	0	7	2	274	347	422	769	148	405	33	10	337	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	569	511	112	18	8	15	44	242	10	43	10	219	294	374	668	155	376	43	8	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	569	488	141	23	9	23	67	170	10	43	10	289	386	514	900	225	395	30	12	393	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	584	513	97	19	5	10	53	226	12	52	10	189	280	304	584	115	309	39	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	—	584	494	126	26	6	14	72	171	12	52	10	255	363	417	780	162	357	29	12	349	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	551	509	105	23	9	14	38	196	4	19	3	206	267	369	636	163	304	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	551	496	115	29	9	17	51	177	4	19	3	232	309	429	738	198	325	32	9	327	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	536	482	105	17	7	12	41	175	1	27	3	218	281	357	637	139	307	33	8	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	536	466	113	19	6	15	57	149	1	27	3	242	326	406	732	163	316	28	11	321	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	335	292	54	11	2	5	35	95	2	20	2	185	277	288	564	103	251	28	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	335	279	58	13	2	6	48	84	2	20	2	208	328	333	662	125	271	25	14	301	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	—	220	196	37	3	1	1	19	78	3	17	13	189	271	230	500	41	303	35	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	153	143	27	3	2	2	9	71	0	7	2	189	240	280	520	91	344	46	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	569	510	112	18	8	15	44	242	10	43	10	220	294	375	668	155	369	43	8	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	584	514	97	19	5	10	53	226	12	52	10	189	280	304	584	115	300	39	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	551	504	105	23	9	14	38	196	4	19	3	208	267	373	640	165	301	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	536	489	105	17	7	12	41	175	1	27	3	215	281	352	632	137	294	33	8	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	335	295	54	11	2	5	35	95	2	20	2	183	277	285	561	102	247	28	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	551	504	105	23	9	14	38	196	4	19	3	208	267	373	640	165	301	36	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	536	489	105	17	7	12	41	175	1	27	3	215	281	352	632	137	294	33	8	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	335	295	54	11	2	5	35	95	2	20	2	183	277	285	561	102	247	28	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	45%	380	342	71	12	3	11	33	109	2	22	4	212	285	366	651	154	271	29	9	290	83	-8	+3	-2	+1	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	45%	107	96	21	4	1	3	9	31	1	6	1	207	281	354	635	147	267	29	8	284	83	-2	+1	-1	+0	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	56%	290	261	55	9	2	9	25	84	2	16	3	211	284	363	647	153	271	29	9	289	82	-6	+2	-2	+1	+6	0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	62%	300	269	57	10	2	9	26	87	2	15	3	209	282	359	641	150	270	29	9	286	80	-7	+2	-3	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	63%	294	266	54	9	2	8	25	86	1	13	2	207	279	353	632	146	269	29	9	283	78	-8	+2	-3	+1	+6	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	63%	289	261	53	9	2	8	25	86	1	11	2	204	276	346	622	142	267	30	9	278	75	-9	+1	-4	+1	+6	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	56%	162	146	29	5	1	4	14	47	1	9	2	206	280	351	631	145	267	29	9	283	82	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	62%	185	166	34	6	1	5	16	54	1	9	2	205	278	347	625	143	266	29	9	280	80	-4	+1	-2	+1	+4	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	63%	184	165	33	6	1	5	16	54	1	8	2	202	275	342	617	139	265	29	9	277	78	-5	+1	-2	+1	+4	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	63%	183	164	33	6	1	5	16	54	1	7	1	200	272	335	607	135	263	30	9	273	75	-6	+1	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	961	864	167	28	8	26	81	304	4	46	7	193	266	334	600	141	262	32	8	270	71	-32	+6	-11	-0	+21	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	113	19	5	18	55	206	3	31	5	193	266	336	602	142	262	32	8	270	71	-22	+4	-8	-0	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4359	3915	801	139	44	100	361	1494	39	254	55	205	278	339	618	135	298	34	8	273	71	-49	+12	-17	+2	+36	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	120	21	7	15	54	223	6	38	8	205	280	342	622	137	300	34	8	273	71	-19	+5	-7	+1	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 244 PAwOBA .320 → .267 (−53)K% 23.0% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.36%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.78%
Singles /BIP	21.23%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.986	×1.018	19.82%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.986	×1.018	6.28%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.986	×1.018	0.67%
Home runs /BIP	2.74%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.95%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .320 → .267; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .297 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 510 PAwOBA .325 → .280 (−45)K% 27.1% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.06%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	32.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.60%
HBP% /PA	0.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.19%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.011	×1.033	22.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.21%	÷0.959	×0.830	×1.011	×1.033	5.61%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.011	×1.033	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	4.90%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .325 → .280; ISO .167 → .142; BABIP .322 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 213 PAwOBA .351 → .304 (−47)K% 25.4% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.35%	÷1.081	×1.200	—	—	28.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.91%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.46%
Singles /BIP	21.90%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.012	×1.048	22.13%
Doubles /BIP	8.76%	÷1.052	×0.830	×1.012	×1.048	7.33%
Triples /BIP	2.92%	÷1.091	×0.970	×1.012	×1.048	2.75%
Home runs /BIP	4.38%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .351 → .304; ISO .199 → .161; BABIP .351 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 208 PAwOBA .318 → .249 (−69)K% 32.2% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.21%	÷1.025	×1.220	—	—	38.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷0.988	×0.700	—	×1.012	8.28%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.24%
Singles /BIP	13.16%	÷0.999	×0.970	×0.979	×1.012	12.65%
Doubles /BIP	12.28%	÷1.110	×0.860	×0.979	×1.012	9.43%
Triples /BIP	2.63%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.979	×1.012	2.75%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.062	×0.780	—	×1.012	3.91%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .318 → .249; ISO .210 → .160; BABIP .296 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 584 PAwOBA .343 → .259 (−84)K% 29.3% → 38.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.28%	÷1.021	×1.350	—	—	38.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.33%	÷0.975	×0.710	—	×0.998	8.96%
HBP% /PA	2.05%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	1.66%
Singles /BIP	24.77%	÷1.047	×0.910	×0.995	×0.998	21.39%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷1.031	×0.830	×0.995	×0.998	6.44%
Triples /BIP	1.86%	÷0.900	×0.820	×0.995	×0.998	1.68%
Home runs /BIP	4.33%	÷1.076	×0.830	—	×0.998	3.34%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .343 → .259; ISO .162 → .119; BABIP .357 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASan Jose Giants · 507 PAwOBA .389 → .293 (−96)K% 29.2% → 42.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.19%	÷0.943	×1.360	—	—	42.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.24%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	—	7.35%
HBP% /PA	1.78%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.38%
Singles /BIP	26.39%	÷0.983	×0.920	×1.031	—	25.46%
Doubles /BIP	7.29%	÷0.957	×0.830	×1.031	—	6.52%
Triples /BIP	3.12%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.031	—	3.26%
Home runs /BIP	7.29%	÷1.063	×0.800	—	—	5.49%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 89, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .389 → .293; ISO .234 → .169; BABIP .391 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 62 PAwOBA .359 → .268 (−90)K% 35.5% → 46.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.48%	÷1.029	×1.350	—	—	46.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.52%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.67%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.32%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.989	×0.910	—	×1.012	31.03%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.953	×0.830	—	×1.012	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.820	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.120	×0.830	—	×1.012	5.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .359 → .268; ISO .154 → .103; BABIP .429 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASan Jose Giants · 88 PAwOBA .300 → .221 (−79)K% 34.1% → 48.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.09%	÷0.959	×1.360	—	—	48.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.82%	÷1.203	×0.690	—	×1.015	3.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷0.977	×0.920	×1.020	×1.015	27.31%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷1.014	×0.830	×1.020	×1.015	3.39%
Triples /BIP	4.00%	÷1.098	×0.910	×1.020	×1.015	3.43%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.008	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.22%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 92, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .300 → .221; ISO .150 → .105; BABIP .367 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.6	1,043	31	53	202	270	354	+4	-11	0.9	0.9
/162	664	19	34	+2.4	-7.3	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Herm Winningham'84-'92 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,069 PA	3.1	2,069	19	105	238*	296*	357*	+1	-3	-0.5	0.2
/162	664	6	34	+0.3	-1.1	-0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Grant McCray (OGILVIE)	26	45	50	60	50	210/283/363	153	271	7	14	29%	9%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Elijah Dunham 2024 · AAA	26	42→44	47→50	57→60	45	209/284/346	137	283	14	28	30%	8%	78	-0.3	207/274/345	138	295	14	20	32%	8%	74	-0.5	192/258/336	144	273	14	17	33%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Cade Marlowe 2024 · MLB	27	46→55	50→55	61→60	43	229/296/388	159	321	17	29	32%	8%	93	+0.8	225/292/351	126	328	11	35	32%	8%	82	+0.0	229/295/350	122	329	10	40	31%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Estevan Florial 2024 · MLB	26	46→56	51→50	55→60	43	225/293/388	163	328	18	28	35%	8%	91	+0.7	211/283/359	148	320	17	26	36%	9%	81	-0.1	167/249/295	128	257	15	36	39%	9%	53	-1.2
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	43→53	49→50	63→60	43	217/282/372	156	302	15	30	32%	8%	83	+0.1	264/327/402	138	323	13	34	21%	7%	107	+1.8	277/340/401	125	327	11	37	18%	7%	111	+1.8
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Mike Antico 2024 · AA	26	42→43	45	63→60	44	209/276/336	127	277	13	39	29%	7%	73	-0.6	212/277/322	110	293	11	31	30%	7%	70	-0.8	201/271/300	99	284	10	32	31%	6%	61	-0.9
✕J.P. Martínez 2023 · AAA	27	44→48	46→50	63→65	44	212/291/347	134	316	13	31	34%	9%	81	-0.1	216/295/343	127	314	11	37	32%	9%	82	-0.0	210/293/330	120	304	10	45	32%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41→42	49→50	58→55	46	213/273/359	146	256	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/276/366	148	265	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/364	154	249	17	20	23%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Bradley Zimmer 2018 · MLB	25	49→51	47→50	59→60	43	233/303/377	144	340	14	29	34%	8%	93	+0.8	232/302/368	136	340	14	22	33%	8%	91	+0.6	202/291/307	105	323	12	23	37%	7%	73	-0.2
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44→45	50→60	60	45	222/296/378	156	307	18	31	32%	8%	91	+0.6	221/301/390	169	320	20	25	35%	10%	95	+1.0	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Jorge Mateo 2023 · MLB	28	44→50	48→50	60→65	40	224/272/371	148	287	14	32	27%	5%	79	-0.2	220/268/357	137	277	14	40	25%	6%	74	-0.5	209/250/335	125	273	13	52	28%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	47→53	48→50	55	50	235/303/384	149	279	14	25	21%	8%	94	+0.9	243/317/377	134	302	13	19	22%	10%	97	+1.1	249/322/365	117	312	11	18	22%	10%	97	+0.9
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→47	50	53→55	46	227/295/384	157	287	17	24	27%	8%	91	+0.7	203/259/333	130	279	12	16	31%	6%	66	-1.1	194/258/314	120	261	9	10	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	244/312/386	141	323	15	32	28%	8%	98	+1.2	233/302/360	127	321	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.5	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	47→51	43→45	59→60	47	225/314/340	114	306	10	29	28%	8%	88	+0.5	226/317/332	106	299	10	21	26%	10%	88	+0.4	221/316/318	97	288	9	20	24%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	43→50	48→50	60	40	213/284/354	141	321	17	33	37%	8%	80	-0.1	198/278/353	155	303	18	33	38%	8%	79	-0.2	207/283/355	147	290	18	38	33%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2008 · MLB	27	46→49	50→55	61→60	35	231/274/391	160	309	17	34	31%	4%	85	+0.2	220/254/349	129	328	14	28	36%	3%	68	-1.0	214/257/341	127	316	15	25	36%	3%	65	-0.8
✕Clete Thomas 2011 · MLB	27	47→54	46→50	58→55	48	228/305/365	137	312	12	26	29%	9%	91	+0.6	211/264/346	135	302	15	19	33%	6%	70	-0.8	203/258/328	125	272	12	14	29%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕David Hamilton 2024 · MLB	26	41→43	45→50	68→70	48	205/280/327	121	267	12	51	27%	9%	72	-0.7	221/286/352	131	280	14	50	25%	8%	80	-0.2	227/287/350	124	282	13	56	24%	7%	81	-0.0

Grant McCray

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps