Jared Jones

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.4 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	26	25	126	3.85	3.21	27.6%	9.5%	—	K 23.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.56
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	133	4.21	3.66	27.1%	7.5%	2.0	K 26.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.96
2026	24	MIX4 levels	26	26	120	3.59	2.98	30.1%	7.6%	2.9	K 29.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.26
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	18	18	104	3.69	3.59	30.5%	7.2%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPIT	18	18	110	3.49	3.45	30.6%	7.2%	1.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBPIT	19	19	112	3.48	3.48	30.6%	7.3%	1.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$6M2029Arb-2$9M2030Arb-3$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

Whiff%90

K%90

xwOBA vs87

CompsBrandon Sproat (age 23) · Tanner Bibee (age 25) · Luke Weaver (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9486vR 78

ERA3.69

FIP3.59

K%30.5%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%23.3%

Proj IP104

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.2

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p9029.6%

xwOBA vs

p870.276

SL+7.2 (35%)

FB+0.7 (49%)

CU (9%)

CH-4.4 (7%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$13M	+$8M
2029	Arb-2	$9M	+1.7	$12M	+$4M
2030	Arb-3	$14M	+1.6	$10M	+$0.4M
Totals		$29M		$49M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	25.2%	13.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.64	3.74	—
2021	19	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	66	302	103	34	6	83%	3.7	34.1%	11.3%	22.8%	2.0%	4.64	2.71	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	20.6%	11.0%	9.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.69	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	26	26	123	532	142	51	19	100%	4.7	26.7%	9.6%	17.1%	3.6%	4.62	4.05	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.3%	3.85	3.56	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	126	529	146	50	12	96%	4.9	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	2.3%	3.85	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+1.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	26.2%	7.5%	18.7%	3.9%	4.21	3.96	+1.5
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	547	148	41	19	100%	5.3	27.1%	7.5%	19.6%	3.5%	4.21	3.66	+2.0
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	29.6%	7.5%	22.2%	3.1%	3.59	3.26	+2.4
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	29.6%	7.5%	22.2%	3.1%	3.59	3.26	+2.4
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	26	120	488	147	37	13	100%	4.6	30.1%	7.6%	22.5%	2.7%	3.59	2.98	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	43	223	919	255	69	30	100%	5.2	27.7%	7.5%	20.2%	3.3%	3.95	3.49	+3.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	18	18	104	439	134	32	14	100%	5.8	30.5%	7.2%	23.3%	3.2%	3.69	3.59	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	487	149	35	16	100%	6.1	30.6%	7.2%	23.4%	3.2%	3.62	3.58	+1.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	118	497	152	36	16	100%	5.9	30.6%	7.3%	23.3%	3.3%	3.62	3.62	+1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	118	497	151	37	17	100%	5.9	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.4%	3.67	3.70	+1.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	474	142	36	17	100%	5.9	29.9%	7.6%	22.2%	3.5%	3.79	3.86	+1.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	106	446	130	35	17	100%	5.9	29.2%	7.9%	21.2%	3.7%	3.96	4.07	+1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	98	416	118	34	16	100%	6.2	28.4%	8.3%	20.1%	4.0%	4.17	4.30	+0.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	91	385	106	33	16	100%	6.1	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	4.2%	4.40	4.56	+0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	84	353	94	32	16	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.1%	17.6%	4.5%	4.66	4.84	+0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	76	321	90	28	15	100%	5.9	27.9%	8.8%	19.0%	4.8%	4.79	4.87	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	110	464	142	33	14	100%	6.1	30.6%	7.2%	23.4%	3.0%	3.49	3.45	+1.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	145	34	14	100%	5.9	30.6%	7.3%	23.3%	3.0%	3.48	3.48	+1.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	144	35	15	100%	5.9	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.1%	3.53	3.56	+1.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	107	452	135	35	15	100%	5.9	29.9%	7.6%	22.2%	3.3%	3.64	3.71	+1.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	123	34	15	100%	5.9	29.2%	7.9%	21.2%	3.5%	3.81	3.92	+1.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	94	397	113	33	15	100%	5.9	28.4%	8.3%	20.1%	3.7%	4.01	4.14	+0.7
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	87	367	101	32	14	100%	6.2	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	3.9%	4.23	4.39	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	89	30	14	100%	6.1	26.8%	9.1%	17.6%	4.1%	4.48	4.66	+0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	81	26	13	100%	5.8	27.9%	8.8%	19.0%	4.4%	4.59	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	188	1092	4586	1326	360	158	100%	5.8	28.9%	7.9%	21.1%	3.4%	3.88	3.54	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	840	243	66	29	100%	5.8	28.9%	7.9%	21.1%	3.4%	3.88	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		121	117	568	2398	597	225	73	97%	4.7	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	3.1%	4.14	3.86	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	844	210	79	26	97%	4.7	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	3.1%	4.14	3.86	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	30.5%	7.2%	3.2%	—	3.63	30.5%	23.2%	350	+0.04	—	—	—
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	60
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	60
Luke Weaver R 2019 · 2.83 FIP	25	SP	2.83	26.5%	5.0%	2.4%	.285	3.98	22.6%	15.6%	153	+1.15	2.54	1,043	60
Kutter Crawford R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	25	SP	3.30	29.1%	5.6%	3.5%	.321	4.23	23.6%	16.6%	415	+0.93	3.30	741	59
Alex Cobb R 2013 · 3.31 FIP	25	SP	3.31	23.2%	7.1%	2.3%	.274	3.43	20.5%	13.6%	203	+0.12	2.74	1,343	59
Zac Gallen R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	25	SP	4.13	26.6%	9.2%	3.8%	.281	3.09	26.1%	19.3%	542	-1.04	2.88	1,485	59
Robert Stephenson R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	24.5%	13.0%	2.9%	.253	3.22	29.0%	20.8%	111	-1.03	2.99	778	59
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	58
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	58
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	2.06	1,597	58
Jon Gray R 2017 · 2.93 FIP	25	SP	2.93	24.3%	6.5%	1.9%	.333	3.73	22.8%	15.5%	361	+0.80	2.93	1,345	58
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	57
Luis Severino R 2018 · 2.72 FIP	24	SP	2.72	28.2%	5.9%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	1,293	57
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	57
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	57
David Festa R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	28.9%	8.7%	3.5%	.334	3.76	24.7%	17.5%	85	+0.09	3.67	405	56
Luis Garcia R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	24.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.260	3.43	26.1%	18.8%	44	-0.55	3.40	535	56
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	56
Chayce McDermott R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.3%	12.3%	2.8%	.314	4.33	23.3%	8.3%	108	+0.53	3.27	449	56
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	104	29.1%	7.8%	1.41	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Whit Wyatt ('29-'45, 23 WAR*)	8.8	117	26.1%*	8.3%*	1.11*	4.02*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Mickey Harris ('40-'52, 8 WAR*)	5.2	117	23.2%*	8.1%*	1.19*	4.34*
Ted Gray ('46-'55, 7 WAR*)	5.7	142	27.3%*	9.7%*	1.46*	4.51*
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.7	90	24.6%	7.6%	1.62	4.54