Player 838004 P DSL Padres Brown
Age — —HP ROK peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST109
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
K: -1.7 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-2KBB: -2.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-3BBCONTACT: -4.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +1.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: -0.79 (39 IP)-0.8WAR
0.00.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026—ROKDSL Padres Brown772311416194100%3.29.5%20.8%-11.3%4.9%7.947.63-0.8
ROS—MLBSD3316671662100%5.323.2%9.4%13.9%3.0%4.364.36+0.0
2026 Total—MLBSD——3918132256——17.4%14.0%3.5%3.3%6.466.28-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBSD3320842083100%6.723.6%9.1%14.6%3.0%4.314.28+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career—772311411246100%3.29.5%20.8%-11.3%4.9%7.947.63-0.8
/ 200 IP—626220010069721253100%3.29.5%20.8%-11.3%4.9%7.947.63-5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 838004 (OGILVIE) —— 4.36 23.2%9.4%3.0%— — ——— — ———
Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 22.5%6.7%2.1%.289 3.78 20.9%13.1%225 +0.60 3.18 256 84
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP 25 SP 4.39 23.0%10.5%3.5%.335 4.65 21.4%11.7%382 +0.26 3.67 509 77
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 25 SP 3.98 26.8%8.1%3.9%.325 — ——— — 3.63 209 76
Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP 25 SP 3.55 20.4%10.4%1.6%.286 5.51 25.3%9.1%58 +1.96 3.29 142 72
Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 26.3%11.9%2.6%.340 — ——— — 3.81 138 71
Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 70
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.34 FIP 25 SP 3.34 23.6%10.4%1.7%.280 2.13 23.9%18.6%36 -1.21 2.13 218 70
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 70
Connor McCullough R 2026 · 5.20 FIP 25 SP 5.20 18.7%6.4%5.2%.217 3.62 20.6%12.2%64 -1.58 3.62 222 69
Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 69
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP 25 SP 4.64 20.4%12.2%3.1%.283 4.15 18.9%11.0%79 -0.49 3.87 247 68
Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP 5.06 23.6%10.4%4.8%.259 — ——— — 3.77 258 68
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP 25 SP 5.37 22.4%10.1%5.2%.295 4.67 21.1%13.3%299 -0.70 3.70 776 68
Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 25 SP 3.85 20.7%9.3%2.4%.346 — ——— — 3.85 132 68
Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP 24 SP 4.39 16.1%11.4%2.2%.309 4.74 18.4%9.4%172 +0.35 4.39 353 68
Zak Kent R 2026 · 3.86 FIP 25 SP 3.86 21.4%7.5%2.9%.239 4.01 21.7%9.0%121 +0.15 3.23 354 68
Justin Dunn R 2026 · 4.48 FIP 25 SP 4.48 22.5%13.3%2.9%.231 5.99 16.1%3.2%60 +1.51 3.51 601 67
Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP 25 SP 5.22 20.9%10.3%4.7%.335 5.81 14.3%-0.8%71 +0.59 4.87 274 67
Levi Wells R 2025 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 19.9%7.3%3.5%.308 — ——— — 3.70 192 67
Aidan Foeller R 2025 · 4.45 FIP 24 SP 4.45 23.4%10.6%3.6%.218 — ——— — 4.45 149 67