Brooks Auger

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1111ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	A+LAD	22	17	91	5.12	4.25	15.3%	10.3%	—	K 11.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.99
2026	24	A+LAD	17	17	60	3.62	2.95	33.5%	12.6%	—	K 25.8% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	—	—	0	5.02	5.02	20.2%	13.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAD	5	5	29	4.99	4.98	20.7%	12.7%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	6	6	38	4.96	4.97	20.8%	12.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsDavid Lebron (age 25) · Hayden Minton (age 23) · Zach Fruit (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%20.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	22	17	91	398	61	41	8	77%	4.2	11.8%	11.8%	-0.0%	2.5%	5.12	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	22	17	91	398	61	41	8	77%	4.2	11.8%	11.8%	-0.0%	2.5%	5.12	4.99	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	22	17	91	398	61	41	8	77%	4.2	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	2.0%	5.12	4.25	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	17	60	254	85	32	5	100%	3.5	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	2.5%	3.62	4.11	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	17	60	254	85	32	5	100%	3.5	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	2.5%	3.62	4.11	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	17	17	60	254	85	32	5	100%	3.5	33.5%	12.6%	20.9%	2.0%	3.62	2.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	13.2%	7.0%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	67	282	58	36	8	100%	6.1	20.7%	12.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.91	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	60	253	53	31	7	100%	6.0	20.8%	12.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.90	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	61	259	59	30	8	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.68	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	56	239	54	28	8	100%	6.3	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.80	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	51	214	47	26	7	100%	6.3	22.2%	11.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.90	4.98	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	29	122	25	15	4	100%	5.8	20.7%	12.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.99	4.98	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	33	20	5	100%	6.3	20.8%	12.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	4.97	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	44	22	6	100%	5.8	22.7%	11.5%	11.3%	3.2%	4.82	4.75	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	44	23	6	100%	5.8	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.85	4.87	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	43	182	40	22	6	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.9%	10.2%	3.5%	4.98	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	202	853	187	102	28	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.91	4.54	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	101	28	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.91	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		39	34	151	652	112	84	16	87%	3.9	17.2%	12.9%	4.4%	2.5%	4.53	4.65	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	45	200	864	149	111	22	87%	3.9	17.2%	12.9%	4.4%	2.5%	4.53	4.65	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 60 IPFIP 2.95 → 4.11 (+1.16)K% 33.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.46%	—	×0.770	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.60%	—	×1.150	14.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 91 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.99 (+0.78)K% 15.3% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.33%	—	×0.770	11.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.30%	—	×1.150	11.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.992	×1.250	2.53%

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Auger (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.83	21.4%	9.2%	188	-0.19	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	86
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	83
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	81
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	81
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	81
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	80
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	79
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	79
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	79
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	21.5%	12.3%	1.17	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*