Aidan Foeller
P
Great Lakes Loons
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2029
ERA4.78
FIP4.78
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%9.5%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 26 | 22 | 99 | 454 | 139 | 74 | 8 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.2% | 4.65 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 2 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 16 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 96 | 56 | 12 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 109 | 456 | 112 | 60 | 12 | 24.6% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 110 | 57 | 13 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 118 | 59 | 14 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 120 | 59 | 15 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 120 | 59 | 15 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 117 | 58 | 15 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 112 | 57 | 15 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 107 | 56 | 14 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 102 | 54 | 14 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 96 | 52 | 14 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 90 | 51 | 14 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 83 | 48 | 13 | 21.4% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 76 | 46 | 13 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 24 | 112 | 504 | 123 | 93 | 10 | 24.4% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 4.17 | 4.43 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 43 | 200 | 897 | 219 | 166 | 18 | 24.4% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 4.17 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Foeller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.54 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 353 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 87 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 87 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 86 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 86 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92 | 119 | 85 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 84 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 84 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 83 |
| Austin Vernon R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.73 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 4.3% | .325 | 3.73 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 100 | -2.00 | 3.36 | 261 | 83 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 83 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | .264 | 5.04 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 312 | +1.29 | 2.95 | 492 | 83 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 83 |
| Brett Daniels R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 83 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 82 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 82 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 82 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 104 | -0.07 | 4.38 | 355 | 82 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 81 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $7M | $33M | +$25M | ||