Gabriel Teran

C DSL Padres Gold

Age 19 R/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#668ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Padres Br…	17	.308/.438/.308	0	1	49	—	.214/.312/.214
2026	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	155	.323/.562/.455	3	6	109	—	.223/.431/.304
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBSD	265	.215/.320/.290	3	5	79	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSD	46	.216/.321/.300	1	1	84	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSD	113	.219/.324/.312	2	2	87	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA98

BB%98

wRC+97

Chase%91

K%67

ISO57

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMichael Arroyo (age 19) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19) · Aidan Miller (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .318 / .287

PA80

HR1

K%25

BB%11

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	13	4	0	0	0	3	2	0	1	1	308	438	308	745		364	12	18	336	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	99	32	4	0	3	43	28	11	6	1	323	562	455	1.017	131	420	18	28	465	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	14	3	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	1	214	312	214	527		237	12	12	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	112	25	3	0	2	30	34	11	6	1	223	431	304	735	80	279	22	19	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	14	3	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	1	214	312	214	527		250	12	12	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	13	4	0	0	0	3	2	0	1	1	308	438	308	745		364	12	18	336	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	112	25	3	0	2	30	34	11	6	1	223	431	304	735	80	299	22	19	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	99	32	4	0	3	43	28	11	6	1	323	562	455	1.017	131	420	18	28	465	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	1	200	312	200	512		237	12	12	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	113	25	3	0	2	30	34	11	6	1	221	431	301	732	80	279	22	19	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	1	200	312	200	512		237	12	12	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	155	113	25	3	0	2	30	34	11	6	1	221	431	301	732	80	279	22	19	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SD	0%	265	228	49	7	1	3	29	67	6	5	1	215	320	290	610	75	289	25	11	285	79	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	133	114	26	4	1	2	15	33	3	3	1	219	324	304	628	85	291	25	11	292	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	SD	48%	233	200	44	6	1	3	26	58	5	5	1	223	326	316	642	94	292	25	11	297	87	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	SD	54%	345	297	68	10	2	6	37	84	8	7	2	226	328	327	655	101	293	24	11	301	90	-4	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	SD	57%	421	364	82	12	2	7	45	102	9	9	2	228	329	336	665	108	294	24	11	305	92	-4	+1	+0	+8	+9	1.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	445	386	89	13	2	9	47	107	9	9	3	231	330	344	673	113	295	24	11	308	94	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	SD	57%	445	385	88	13	2	9	48	107	9	9	3	231	330	346	677	115	295	24	11	309	95	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	SD	60%	445	385	88	13	2	9	48	107	9	9	3	231	331	348	679	117	294	24	11	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	SD	62%	445	385	88	13	2	9	48	108	9	9	3	230	329	345	675	115	294	24	11	308	95	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	SD	63%	445	385	88	13	2	9	48	109	9	8	3	228	327	340	668	112	293	24	11	305	93	-4	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	SD	64%	445	386	87	13	2	8	47	110	9	8	3	226	325	334	658	108	291	25	11	302	90	-5	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	SD	65%	445	386	87	13	2	8	47	112	9	8	3	222	321	325	646	103	289	25	11	297	87	-7	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	SD	65%	426	370	81	12	2	7	45	109	8	7	4	218	316	315	631	97	286	26	11	291	83	-9	-0	-3	+8	+9	0.5
2040	32	MLB MLE	SD	65%	407	354	75	11	1	6	42	106	8	7	6	213	310	302	612	90	282	26	10	283	78	-11	-1	-4	+7	+9	0.1
2041	33	MLB MLE	SD	65%	363	316	65	9	1	5	37	96	7	6	9	206	302	288	590	81	277	26	10	275	72	-12	-2	-4	+6	+8	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	46	40	9	1	0	1	5	11	1	1	0	216	321	300	621	84	286	24	11	289	84	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	SD	48%	113	97	22	3	1	2	12	28	3	2	1	219	324	312	636	92	287	25	11	294	87	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	SD	54%	187	161	36	5	1	3	20	46	4	4	1	223	325	323	648	100	288	25	11	299	90	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	SD	57%	238	205	46	7	1	4	26	58	5	5	1	225	326	332	658	107	289	24	11	302	92	-2	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	252	218	49	7	1	5	27	61	5	5	1	228	327	340	667	112	290	24	11	305	94	-2	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2033	25	MLB CTX	SD	57%	251	217	49	7	1	5	27	61	5	5	1	228	328	342	670	114	290	24	11	306	95	-1	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	SD	60%	268	231	53	8	1	6	29	65	6	5	2	228	328	344	672	116	290	24	11	307	96	-1	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	27	MLB CTX	SD	62%	276	238	55	8	1	6	30	67	6	5	2	227	327	341	668	114	289	24	11	306	95	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2036	28	MLB CTX	SD	63%	281	243	55	8	1	6	30	69	6	5	2	225	325	336	661	111	288	25	11	303	93	-2	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.9
2037	29	MLB CTX	SD	64%	284	246	54	8	1	5	30	70	6	5	2	223	322	330	652	107	286	25	11	299	90	-3	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2038	30	MLB CTX	SD	65%	289	250	55	8	1	5	31	73	6	5	2	219	318	321	640	102	284	25	11	294	87	-4	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2039	31	MLB CTX	SD	65%	277	241	52	7	1	5	29	71	5	5	3	215	313	311	624	96	281	26	10	288	83	-6	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.3
2040	32	MLB CTX	SD	65%	265	231	48	6	1	4	27	69	5	4	4	210	307	299	606	89	277	26	10	281	78	-7	-1	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	SD	65%	236	206	42	5	1	3	24	63	4	4	6	204	300	284	584	80	273	27	10	272	72	-8	-2	-3	+4	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3263	2824	625	88	13	60	347	812	67	60	28	221	321	325	646	104	288	25	11	297	89	-44	+1	-10	+58	+71	7.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	125	18	3	12	69	162	13	12	6	222	321	329	650	107	288	25	11	297	89	-9	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5695	4908	1099	160	24	100	621	1404	124	112	48	224	326	327	654	104	291	25	11	300	89	-74	+3	-15	+99	+120	13.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	560	125	18	3	11	71	160	14	13	5	223	326	325	651	102	291	25	11	300	89	-9	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 155 PAwOBA .458 → .330 (−129)K% 18.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.06%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.74%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	19.32%
HBP% /PA	7.10%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.94%
Singles /BIP	35.21%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.017	×0.995	24.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.63%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.017	×0.995	3.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.017	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.23%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.98%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .458 → .330; ISO .131 → .079; BABIP .420 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Padres Brown · 17 PAwOBA .329 → .240 (−89)K% 11.8% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.026	×1.220	—	—	13.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	12.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.050	×0.680	—	×1.008	23.73%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.948	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.880	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 90, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .329 → .240; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Johnny Edwards'61-'74 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,132 PA	7.7	5,132	81	15	240*	313*	380*	+92	+0	16.7	16.2
/162	664	10	2	+11.9	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 16
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#4Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#5Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.0	3,344	58	63	225	321	329	+60	+36	10.7	9.1
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+7.1	2.1	pk7: 7
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Teran (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	213/318/287	74	289	1	1	25%	11%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2024 · A	19	44→51	40→50	46→50	49	208/316/308	101	279	6	7	25%	9%	84	+0.1	228/322/372	144	297	15	11	27%	8%	99	+1.3	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Alexander Albertus 2024 · A	19	49	41→45	47→45	61	232/339/328	96	275	9	11	18%	13%	95	+1.0	228/315/321	93	292	7	9	22%	10%	84	+0.2	225/311/319	93	294	7	6	24%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	43→51	42→50	50→55	51	209/299/315	106	278	8	12	26%	10%	77	-0.3	225/289/347	122	328	11	16	32%	7%	80	-0.1	244/294/364	120	343	10	23	30%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕George Lombard Jr. 2024 · A	19	51→48	39→45	48→55	49	232/311/316	85	335	6	12	30%	10%	81	-0.1	208/291/311	103	304	8	22	31%	9%	74	-0.6	208/297/325	117	296	10	23	30%	10%	77	-0.3
✕Jancel Villarroel 2024 · A	19	46	40→45	44→50	53	218/308/313	95	272	6	8	21%	10%	80	-0.1	214/289/309	95	287	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.7	215/287/315	100	285	9	11	26%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Aron Estrada 2024 · A	19	47→54	41→50	52→55	54	220/310/327	107	272	6	9	20%	10%	84	+0.2	247/301/365	118	304	11	21	22%	6%	88	+0.5	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Victor Bericoto 2021 · A	19	50→49	40→50	51→40	49	230/310/323	93	327	7	10	30%	10%	82	+0.0	224/286/341	117	319	13	5	31%	8%	78	-0.3	230/278/364	134	300	16	3	28%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→47	39→45	48→45	52	232/310/319	87	306	7	11	25%	10%	82	-0.0	216/290/316	100	284	8	6	25%	9%	74	-0.6	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Victor Rodrigues 2024 · A	19	42	37→30	47→50	51	198/275/273	75	246	5	10	21%	9%	58	-1.7	215/298/280	65	272	5	7	21%	10%	69	-0.9	213/306/263	50	270	4	5	20%	11%	66	-0.5
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Jefferson Rojas 2024 · A	19	45→48	41→50	52→50	43	221/283/322	101	279	9	15	24%	6%	72	-0.7	222/283/337	115	269	12	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1

Gabriel Teran

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps