Jancel Villarroel
C Eugene Emeralds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKHOU | 309 | .246/.362/.362 | 4 | 11 | 56 | — | .189/.287/.263 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/AHOU | 433 | .259/.356/.388 | 8 | 20 | 72 | — | .223/.297/.322 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+SF | 336 | .263/.337/.411 | 9 | 4 | 79 | — | .243/.307/.375 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSF | 1 | .223/.286/.332 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 23 | MLBSF | 133 | .227/.291/.347 | 3 | 2 | 84 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 24 | MLBSF | 216 | .230/.295/.356 | 5 | 3 | 88 | 0.5 |
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Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | — | 31 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 381 | 567 | 667 | 1.233 | 286 | 467 | 16 | 29 | 509 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | — | 200 | 163 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 313 | 437 | 491 | 928 | 178 | 362 | 16 | 14 | 414 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 227 | 193 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 342 | 321 | 663 | 88 | 316 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 82 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 284 | 415 | 478 | 892 | 194 | 333 | 17 | 13 | 399 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 61 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 300 | 404 | 704 | 140 | 302 | 21 | 5 | 308 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 372 | 314 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 64 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 258 | 365 | 385 | 750 | 127 | 301 | 17 | 11 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 138 | 120 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 308 | 590 | 108 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 265 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 198 | 177 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 305 | 376 | 480 | 856 | 175 | 351 | 18 | 6 | 379 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 31 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 433 | 542 | 975 | 250 | 306 | 19 | 19 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 200 | 171 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 211 | 322 | 304 | 626 | 94 | 252 | 19 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 227 | 199 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 76 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 181 | 276 | 236 | 512 | 55 | 276 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 82 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 211 | 317 | 338 | 655 | 127 | 272 | 24 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 61 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 233 | 276 | 509 | 69 | 266 | 28 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 372 | 328 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 87 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 226 | 308 | 329 | 637 | 104 | 278 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 138 | 124 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 267 | 306 | 573 | 105 | 239 | 23 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 198 | 180 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 335 | 422 | 757 | 150 | 331 | 25 | 4 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 31 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 433 | 542 | 975 | 250 | 353 | 19 | 19 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Orange | — | 31 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 381 | 567 | 667 | 1.233 | 286 | 467 | 16 | 29 | 509 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 200 | 171 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 211 | 322 | 304 | 626 | 94 | 258 | 19 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Orange | — | 200 | 163 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 313 | 437 | 491 | 928 | 178 | 362 | 16 | 14 | 414 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 270 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 96 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 196 | 293 | 285 | 578 | 89 | 289 | 31 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 309 | 260 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 71 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 246 | 362 | 362 | 723 | 115 | 321 | 23 | 10 | 332 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 386 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 105 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 223 | 297 | 321 | 619 | 98 | 285 | 24 | 7 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 433 | 371 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 77 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 259 | 356 | 388 | 744 | 129 | 301 | 18 | 10 | 334 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 304 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 80 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 240 | 304 | 362 | 666 | 122 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 336 | 297 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 62 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 263 | 337 | 411 | 748 | 148 | 304 | 18 | 7 | 332 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 31 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 280 | 433 | 520 | 953 | 240 | 306 | 19 | 19 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Orange | — | 200 | 170 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 212 | 322 | 306 | 627 | 94 | 252 | 19 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 269 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 96 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 197 | 293 | 286 | 579 | 89 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 389 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 105 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 221 | 297 | 319 | 616 | 98 | 276 | 24 | 7 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 305 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 80 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 304 | 361 | 665 | 121 | 293 | 24 | 5 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 269 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 96 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 197 | 293 | 286 | 579 | 89 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 389 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 105 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 221 | 297 | 319 | 616 | 98 | 276 | 24 | 7 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 305 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 80 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 239 | 304 | 361 | 665 | 121 | 293 | 24 | 5 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | SF | 0% | 446 | 407 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 102 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 227 | 289 | 341 | 631 | 114 | 279 | 23 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -4 | +8 | +10 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | SF | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 286 | 332 | 618 | 110 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 78 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | SF | 43% | 306 | 278 | 64 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 68 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 231 | 295 | 357 | 652 | 125 | 280 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | SF | 58% | 372 | 338 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 82 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 235 | 299 | 366 | 666 | 132 | 281 | 22 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 65% | 404 | 367 | 87 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 89 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 236 | 302 | 371 | 673 | 135 | 282 | 22 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -5 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 68% | 422 | 383 | 91 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 93 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 236 | 303 | 373 | 675 | 137 | 282 | 22 | 6 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 68% | 427 | 387 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 95 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 236 | 302 | 372 | 674 | 136 | 282 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 68% | 425 | 385 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 95 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 234 | 300 | 367 | 668 | 134 | 281 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 66% | 414 | 376 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 94 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 297 | 361 | 658 | 130 | 280 | 23 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 66% | 402 | 365 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 93 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 294 | 353 | 647 | 125 | 278 | 23 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | SF | 65% | 368 | 335 | 75 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 86 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 224 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 119 | 275 | 23 | 6 | 284 | 79 | -9 | -1 | -4 | +7 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | SF | 65% | 329 | 300 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 79 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 219 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 112 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -10 | -1 | -5 | +6 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | SF | 43% | 133 | 121 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 291 | 347 | 638 | 120 | 276 | 23 | 6 | 287 | 84 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | SF | 58% | 216 | 196 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 295 | 356 | 651 | 126 | 278 | 22 | 6 | 292 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 65% | 262 | 237 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 58 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 297 | 361 | 658 | 129 | 278 | 22 | 6 | 295 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 68% | 287 | 260 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 63 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 298 | 362 | 661 | 130 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 68% | 290 | 263 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 64 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 298 | 361 | 660 | 130 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 68% | 289 | 262 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 65 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 296 | 357 | 653 | 127 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 293 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 66% | 275 | 249 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 62 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 294 | 351 | 644 | 124 | 276 | 23 | 7 | 290 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 66% | 263 | 239 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 61 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 290 | 343 | 633 | 119 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 285 | 83 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | SF | 65% | 239 | 217 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 56 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 334 | 619 | 114 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 79 | -6 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | SF | 65% | 213 | 194 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 215 | 279 | 322 | 601 | 107 | 267 | 24 | 6 | 272 | 73 | -7 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2467 | 2238 | 510 | 83 | 15 | 56 | 158 | 558 | 52 | 27 | 11 | 228 | 294 | 353 | 648 | 126 | 278 | 23 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -42 | +1 | -18 | +44 | +53 | 4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 135 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 42 | 147 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 229 | 296 | 356 | 652 | 127 | 278 | 23 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -11 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5388 | 4860 | 1111 | 183 | 34 | 116 | 351 | 1247 | 131 | 90 | 33 | 229 | 298 | 352 | 650 | 123 | 282 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -72 | +3 | -29 | +73 | +88 | 6.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 134 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 150 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 229 | 298 | 352 | 650 | 123 | 282 | 23 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -11 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 198 PAwOBA .369 → .316 (−53)K% 18.2% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 3.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 4.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .369 → .316; ISO .175 → .143; BABIP .351 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 138 PAwOBA .260 → .242 (−18)K% 18.8% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×1.050 | 17.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.023 | ×1.050 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.023 | ×1.050 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .260 → .242; ISO .108 → .098; BABIP .237 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 372 PAwOBA .335 → .280 (−55)K% 17.2% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.20% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.40% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.40% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.97% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .335 → .280; ISO .127 → .106; BABIP .301 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 61 PAwOBA .304 → .236 (−68)K% 21.3% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.31% | ÷0.977 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.92% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×1.042 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×1.042 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.297 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 3.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .304 → .236; ISO .140 → .095; BABIP .302 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 227 PAwOBA .303 → .238 (−65)K% 25.1% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.11% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.81% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 4.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.26% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.045 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.62% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.045 | 4.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.045 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.10% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .303 → .238; ISO .088 → .065; BABIP .316 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Astros · 82 PAwOBA .389 → .287 (−102)K% 17.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.41% | ÷1.033 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 19.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.936 | ×0.720 | ×1.016 | ×1.008 | 2.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.67% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .389 → .287; ISO .194 → .142; BABIP .333 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 200 PAwOBA .406 → .278 (−127)K% 16.0% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.43% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | ×1.036 | ×1.008 | 17.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.69% | ÷0.905 | ×0.600 | ×1.036 | ×1.008 | 7.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.036 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.330 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 96, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .406 → .278; ISO .178 → .096; BABIP .362 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL HOU Orange · 31 PAwOBA .498 → .352 (−146)K% 16.1% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 29.03% | ÷1.127 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 18.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 22.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.051 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 3.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.912 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 3.29% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 107, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .498 → .352; ISO .286 → .190; BABIP .467 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).