Charlie Christensen

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	15	10	50	2.52	2.18	36.9%	8.1%	—	K 27.5% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.37
2027PROJ	23	MLBDET	7	7	35	4.14	4.14	25.8%	9.4%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBDET	4	4	20	4.02	3.98	26.1%	9.0%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBDET	5	5	31	3.97	3.93	26.2%	8.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsCasey Legumina (age 24) · Sam Benschoter (age 24) · Michael Knorr (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%25.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%16.4%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	50	198	73	16	4	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	50	198	73	16	4	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	50	198	73	16	4	67%	3.3	36.9%	8.1%	28.8%	2.0%	2.52	2.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	DET	7	7	35	148	38	14	4	100%	5.0	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	46	195	51	17	6	100%	5.8	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.0%	4.09	4.05	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	47	197	52	17	6	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	3.0%	4.04	4.00	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	47	197	52	17	6	100%	5.8	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	3.0%	4.02	4.00	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	46	194	51	17	6	100%	5.8	26.2%	8.8%	17.4%	3.0%	4.03	4.04	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	45	188	49	17	6	100%	6.4	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.1%	4.09	4.13	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	20	84	22	8	2	100%	5.0	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.02	3.98	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	31	131	34	11	4	100%	6.2	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.93	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	37	156	41	14	4	100%	6.2	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	2.8%	3.95	3.93	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	39	165	43	15	5	100%	6.5	26.2%	8.8%	17.4%	2.9%	3.96	3.97	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	44	15	5	100%	5.7	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.0%	4.02	4.06	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	167	703	184	62	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.9%	3.98	3.60	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	221	74	24	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.9%	3.98	3.60	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		15	10	50	198	55	19	5	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	40	200	792	218	75	20	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie Christensen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	25.8%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.02	26.2%	17.4%	140	-0.12	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	87
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Anderson Brito R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	20	SP-	3.50	27.5%	11.9%	2.2%	.231	3.85	23.2%	7.4%	82	+0.35	3.28	135	79
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	78
Max Scherzer R 2008 · 2.98 FIP	24	SW	2.98	27.8%	8.4%	2.1%	.295	3.84	22.4%	14.6%	561	+0.86	2.13	3,078	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	77
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	77
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	76
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	76
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	75
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	44	26.1%	8.9%	1.16	4.07
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*