Cale Wetwiska — OGILVIE

Cale Wetwiska P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%22.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	21	4	4	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.90	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	21	4	4	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.90	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	21	4	4	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	14	11	46	195	52	19	4	79%	3.3	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	2.3%	2.74	4.21	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	14	11	46	195	52	19	4	79%	3.3	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	2.3%	2.74	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	DET	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2026	21	A RAW	DET	12	10	41	171	47	18	3	83%	3.4	27.5%	10.5%	17.0%	1.8%	2.66	3.08	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	DET	1	1	3	18	4	1	1	100%	3.3	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	5.6%	5.40	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	47	199	47	19	6	100%	5.2	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.29	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	49	207	51	19	6	100%	5.4	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.9%	4.24	4.14	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	50	212	53	19	6	100%	5.6	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.05	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	51	214	54	18	6	100%	5.6	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.9%	4.05	3.99	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	51	214	55	18	6	100%	6.3	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	50	211	54	18	6	100%	6.2	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	2.9%	4.01	4.01	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	23	97	23	9	3	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	2.8%	4.30	4.22	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	36	152	37	14	4	100%	5.1	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.07	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	42	177	44	15	5	100%	5.2	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.7%	4.06	3.98	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	45	190	48	16	5	100%	5.6	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.92	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	50	17	5	100%	5.8	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	50	17	5	100%	5.8	25.5%	8.6%	16.9%	2.8%	3.94	3.94	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	238	1005	252	88	28	100%	5.7	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.61	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	212	74	24	100%	5.7	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		16	13	50	216	44	28	4	81%	3.1	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.1%	3.06	4.18	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	52	200	864	175	113	18	81%	3.1	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.1%	3.06	4.18	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cale Wetwiska (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	22.8%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.16	24.4%	15.3%	146	-0.35	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	87
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	86
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	80
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	80
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	47	24.8%	9.0%	1.12	4.16
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06