Cash Kuiper — OGILVIE

Cash Kuiper P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	2	5	27	5	8	0	50%	1.2	18.5%	29.6%	-11.1%	0.0%	5.40	5.29	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	2	5	27	5	8	0	50%	1.2	18.5%	29.6%	-11.1%	0.0%	5.40	5.29	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	2	5	27	5	8	0	50%	1.2	18.5%	29.6%	-11.1%	0.0%	5.40	5.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	16	13	52	237	46	22	8	81%	3.2	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.4%	6.06	5.68	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	16	13	52	237	46	22	8	81%	3.2	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.4%	6.06	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	DET	16	13	52	237	46	22	8	81%	3.2	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	3.4%	6.06	4.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	53	225	50	21	7	100%	5.3	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	55	234	54	21	7	100%	5.5	23.2%	8.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.25	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	57	240	57	21	7	100%	5.7	23.7%	8.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.22	4.15	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	243	58	20	7	100%	5.8	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.10	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	243	59	20	7	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.08	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	239	58	20	7	100%	6.3	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	26	110	25	10	3	100%	5.2	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.33	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	39	15	5	100%	5.7	23.2%	8.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.18	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	47	17	6	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	51	215	52	18	6	100%	5.7	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.03	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	53	224	54	19	6	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	2.8%	4.04	4.01	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	52	220	53	19	6	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	269	1138	271	98	32	100%	5.7	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.14	3.71	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	201	73	24	100%	5.7	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.14	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		20	15	57	264	39	34	10	75%	2.9	14.8%	12.9%	1.9%	3.9%	6.00	5.64	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	53	200	926	137	119	36	75%	2.9	14.8%	12.9%	1.9%	3.9%	6.00	5.64	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cash Kuiper (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.2%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.26	23.1%	14.2%	166	-0.36	—	—	—
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	87
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	86
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	53	23.4%	8.8%	1.13	4.27
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33