Tyler McKay — OGILVIE

Tyler McKay P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%20.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	4	1	7	33	2	2	0	25%	1.8	6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.36	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	4	1	7	33	2	2	0	25%	1.8	6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.37	—
2019	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	18	12	66	279	57	24	7	67%	3.7	15.1%	10.2%	5.0%	4.0%	5.05	5.32	—
2019	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	18	12	66	279	57	24	7	67%	3.7	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.5%	5.05	3.84	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	48	211	33	24	3	67%	3.2	12.1%	12.8%	-0.7%	1.9%	4.66	4.74	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	48	211	33	24	3	67%	3.2	15.6%	11.4%	4.3%	1.4%	4.66	4.03	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	264	47	23	6	0%	1.5	14.1%	9.7%	4.4%	2.6%	5.19	4.56	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	61	264	47	23	6	0%	1.5	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.3%	5.19	3.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	55	236	56	28	3	0%	1.2	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	1.5%	2.60	3.72	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	55	236	56	28	3	0%	1.2	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	1.5%	2.60	3.72	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	55	236	56	28	3	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.9%	11.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.30	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	1.1%	2.28	3.14	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	1.1%	2.28	3.14	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	1.0%	2.28	2.83	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	PHI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	26	0	28	117	24	11	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.55	0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	4	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	78	20	0%	1.1	20.1%	9.6%	10.5%	2.8%	4.50	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		168	23	285	1223	192	127	28	14%	1.7	15.7%	10.4%	5.3%	2.3%	4.01	4.34	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	16	200	858	135	89	19	14%	1.7	15.7%	10.4%	5.3%	2.3%	4.01	4.34	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler McKay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.0%	9.4%	2.6%	—	4.55	20.1%	10.5%	28	+0.12	—	—	—
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	81
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	80
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	80
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	80
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	79
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.1%	9.5%	1.06	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38