Tyler McKay
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%22.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 4 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25% | 1.8 | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.36 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 4 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25% | 1.8 | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 3.37 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 18 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 67% | 3.7 | 15.1% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.05 | 6.00 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 18 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 67% | 3.7 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 3.84 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 48 | 211 | 33 | 24 | 3 | 67% | 3.2 | 12.1% | 12.8% | -0.7% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 48 | 211 | 33 | 24 | 3 | 67% | 3.2 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 4.66 | 4.03 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 264 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.1% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.19 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 264 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 5.19 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 56 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 56 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 2.60 | 3.30 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 48 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 2.28 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 48 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 1.0% | 2.28 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.09 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 78 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 23 | 285 | 1223 | 195 | 133 | 31 | 14% | 1.7 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.51 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 16 | 200 | 858 | 137 | 93 | 22 | 14% | 1.7 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 4.01 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler McKay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.47 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 28 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 81 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 80 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 80 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 79 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 79 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 1.06 | 4.37 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |