Tyler McKay

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	40	0	61	5.19	3.97	17.8%	8.7%	—	K 14.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.56
2023	25	MIX2 levels	48	0	55	2.60	3.30	23.7%	11.9%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.69
2024	26	MIX2 levels	43	0	47	2.28	2.83	24.0%	9.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.10
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	3	0	3	4.38	4.38	21.7%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBPHI	8	0	8	4.48	4.55	21.5%	9.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%21.7%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	4	1	7	33	2	2	0	25%	1.8	6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.36	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	4	1	7	33	2	2	0	25%	1.8	6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	0.0%	2.45	3.37	—
2019	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	18	12	66	279	57	24	7	67%	3.7	15.1%	10.2%	5.0%	4.0%	5.05	5.32	—
2019	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	18	12	66	279	57	24	7	67%	3.7	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.5%	5.05	3.84	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	48	211	33	24	3	67%	3.2	12.1%	12.8%	-0.7%	1.9%	4.66	4.74	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	48	211	33	24	3	67%	3.2	15.6%	11.4%	4.3%	1.4%	4.66	4.03	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	61	264	47	23	6	0%	1.5	14.1%	9.7%	4.4%	2.6%	5.19	4.56	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	61	264	47	23	6	0%	1.5	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.3%	5.19	3.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	55	236	56	28	3	0%	1.2	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	1.5%	2.60	3.69	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	55	236	56	28	3	0%	1.2	23.7%	11.9%	11.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.30	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.6%	1.1%	2.28	3.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.6%	1.1%	2.28	3.10	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	200	48	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	1.0%	2.28	2.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	22	0	23	96	21	9	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	8	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	72	24	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		168	23	285	1223	194	127	28	14%	1.7	15.9%	10.4%	5.4%	2.3%	4.01	4.33	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	16	200	858	136	89	19	14%	1.7	15.9%	10.4%	5.4%	2.3%	4.01	4.33	0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 34 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.73 (+0.18)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.33%	—	×0.860	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.989	×1.100	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 14 IPFIP 0.65 → 1.19 (+0.54)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.810	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.00%	—	×1.100	2.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.137	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 0.65 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 27 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.36 (+0.05)K% 20.2% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.17%	—	×0.860	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.13%	—	×0.900	13.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 28 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.03 (+0.75)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.35%	—	×0.810	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.55%	—	×1.100	9.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.050	×1.200	2.93%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 40 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.31 (+0.62)K% 15.7% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.73%	—	×0.810	12.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.100	9.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.051	×1.200	3.85%

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 20 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.02 (+0.61)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.09%	—	×0.770	17.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.150	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.881	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 45 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.74 (+0.72)K% 15.7% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.66%	—	×0.770	12.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.004	×1.250	1.89%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALakewood BlueClaws · 66 IPFIP 3.84 → 5.32 (+1.48)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.43%	—	×0.740	15.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.60%	—	×1.180	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷0.809	×1.300	4.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler McKay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	21.7%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.55	21.5%	12.2%	23	+0.17	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	86
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	80
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	77
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	77
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.6%	9.1%	1.16	4.43
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*