Manuel Espinoza
P
Tennessee Smokies
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 150 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.8%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 201 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 64% | 4.3 | 12.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 0.7% | 2.49 | 3.13 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | 11 | 7 | 47 | 201 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 64% | 4.3 | 18.4% | 4.5% | 13.9% | 0.5% | 2.49 | 2.38 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 99 | 436 | 92 | 26 | 18 | 100% | 4.5 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.11 | 5.76 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 22 | 22 | 99 | 436 | 92 | 26 | 18 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 11 | 67 | 291 | 68 | 31 | 11 | 65% | 3.9 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.86 | 6.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 11 | 67 | 291 | 68 | 31 | 11 | 65% | 3.9 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.60 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 62 | 266 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 79% | 3.3 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.29 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 62 | 266 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 79% | 3.3 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 3 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 2.3 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.20 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 3 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 2.3 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 19 | 81 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 73 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 56 | 282 | 1222 | 199 | 105 | 49 | 78% | 3.9 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.44 | 5.01 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 868 | 141 | 75 | 35 | 78% | 3.9 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.44 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Espinoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.36 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 44 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 80 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 77 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 77 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 77 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 76 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 75 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 74 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 74 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 74 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 74 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 74 |
| Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 74 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 74 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 74 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 74 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 74 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 74 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 1.16 | 4.37 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |