Gabel Pentecost
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%21.9%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 4 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 50% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 79 | 330 | 76 | 29 | 10 | — | — | 23.0% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 228 | 962 | 222 | 79 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 69 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 4 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 50% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.94 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 24 | 200 | 824 | 165 | 97 | 31 | 50% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.24 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabel Pentecost (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 191 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 87 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 85 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 84 |
| James Hicks R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.96 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 121 | +0.76 | 4.20 | 227 | 83 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 83 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.91 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 145 | +0.03 | 3.84 | 254 | 81 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 80 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 80 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.28 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 131 | -0.16 | 3.95 | 229 | 80 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .354 | 4.47 | 16.1% | 5.6% | 250 | +0.41 | 3.65 | 345 | 79 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 79 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 79 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 79 |
| Travis Herrin R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 79 |
| Brett Conine R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.24 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .290 | 5.99 | 15.4% | 4.9% | 205 | +2.75 | 3.24 | 319 | 79 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 1.16 | 4.26 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |