Gabel Pentecost — OGILVIE

Gabel Pentecost P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%21.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3545

CTRL—50

CMD4055

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	27.1%	10.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.24	3.64	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	22	5	2	1	100%	5.2	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	22	92	24	9	3	—	—	25.9%	9.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	63	266	60	23	8	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	270	62	23	8	100%	5.8	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.22	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	270	63	23	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.4%	14.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.20	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	266	62	22	8	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.25	+0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	27	114	26	10	3	100%	5.4	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	42	177	41	15	5	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.22	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	50	18	6	100%	6.4	23.2%	8.4%	14.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.20	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	53	19	7	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.5%	14.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.25	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	174	733	169	62	22	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.26	3.86	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	71	25	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.26	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		4	2	17	70	14	8	3	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	24	200	824	165	97	31	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabel Pentecost (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	21.9%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.24	22.9%	14.5%	191	-0.19	—	—	—
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	81
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	81
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	80
Mason Adams R 2023 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP-	3.67	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.81	19.8%	12.5%	188	+0.14	3.67	297	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	78
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	78
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	22.8%	8.6%	1.15	4.30
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63