Jake Brink — OGILVIE

Jake Brink P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%20.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	9	57	268	43	25	14	60%	3.8	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	6.8%	8.42	7.22	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	9	57	268	43	25	14	60%	3.8	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	6.8%	8.42	7.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CIN	15	9	57	268	43	25	14	60%	3.8	16.0%	9.3%	6.7%	5.2%	8.42	5.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	240	51	23	7	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.61	4.56	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	58	243	53	22	7	100%	6.4	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	58	243	54	22	7	100%	6.4	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.44	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	57	239	53	22	7	100%	6.3	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.47	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	24	101	22	10	3	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.69	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	38	160	35	15	5	100%	6.3	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.3%	4.65	4.60	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	46	194	43	18	6	100%	6.6	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	3.3%	4.60	4.57	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	45	19	7	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.3%	4.61	4.61	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	156	661	145	61	22	100%	6.3	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.64	4.23	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	185	78	28	100%	6.3	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.64	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		15	9	57	268	32	30	18	60%	3.8	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	6.8%	8.42	7.22	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	946	112	104	64	60%	3.8	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	6.8%	8.42	7.22	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Brink (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	20.4%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.49	21.7%	12.5%	172	-0.24	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	88
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	88
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	79
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	21.6%	9.4%	1.18	4.55
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47